Real World Sports

Florida State and Miami Aren’t Living Up to Preseason Hype

If you read many of the preseason college football publications this year, you got the sense that both Miami, and especially Florida State, were ready to return to the elite of college football.

Sure, things had gotten ugly the past few seasons. But, each program had reportedly fixed what ailed them. Miami changed head coaches. Florida State kept their head coach but changed seemingly everyone else. Look out world, the ‘Canes and ‘Noles were back!

As Lee Corso would (unfortunately) say, “Not so fast, my friend.”

(He still says that doesn’t he? That mascot head thing, too?)

Through two weeks, the teams are a combined 1-3 ATS, with very sluggish performances on offense.

Miami started its season with a cover against Marshall. But, the offense only gained 341 yards against a team that would allow over 500 to West Virginia a week later. The passing line was just 9-21-1-81, which is far from “big time” in terms of modern college football.

Miami followed that up with a demoralizing 51-13 loss at powerful Oklahoma. The Hurricanes weren’t even tropical depressions, gaining just 139 yards on the afternoon. Through two games, the offense was just 5 of 25 on third down conversions. Clearly, the problems weren’t fixed, and Miami is nowhere near ready to return to the elite of the sport. Oklahoma represents that elite class. Miami was 38 points away when the final gun sounded.

Florida State was a popular wagering team in its season opener at Clemson, as the inexperienced Tigers were supposedly going to be outmatched by the resurgent Seminoles. FSU fell behind 24-3 at the half. A late rally made it respectable. But, how respectable is a loss to an inexperienced team when you go just 3 of 17 on third down conversions and you need a late surge to make it past 200 yards for the game?

The Seminoles supposedly caught the schedule break of all time when lowly UAB went to Tallahassee last week. UAB trailed Michigan State 45-3 at the half of its opening game, and has a very green coaching staff and starting lineup. The team that trailed MSU 45-3 at the half led Florida State 17-10 at the half! The Seminoles ultimately rallied for a 10-point win as a 38-point favorite.

Miami and Florida State fell short of betting marketplace expectations by a combined 55 points last week.

Early returns suggest that these clubs will not be returning to glory any time soon. Both teams still have sluggish offenses that can’t move the ball without committing turnovers. Though the ACC looks weak again, if neither club fixes its offensive problems soon, both are in store for disappointing seasons once again.

Miami was 4-7 ATS last season. Florida State was 4-7 ATS when not playing Miami. The prior year, those numbers were 4-7 ATS and 4-6 ATS. Tossing in this year’s games, Miami and FSU are 17-30 ATS when not playing each other their last 47 regular season board games.

There a pair of predicted resurgences in the sunshine state that don’t appear to be happening. And those who suggest that South Florida is now the second best team in the state have a very defensible argument.