With a typically massive college basketball lineup on Saturday, let’s take a look at five items of interest in today’s hoop action.

1. The marquee matchup on Saturday night is Villanova at Syracuse in front of the largest on-campus crowd in the history of the sport.  The total in this game is a daunting proposition, as Syracuse games don’t have a lot of fouls called while Villanova fouls a ton and gets fouled as well.  Syracuse games average 37 free throws attempted, the average Villanova game has 54 opportunities from the stripe.  No surprise that ‘nova games are high, with 156 average points in Villanova games, which is 10 points more than the 146 seen in the typical Syracuse contest.

 2. Georgia Tech takes on Boston College in an early start in Atlanta, and it will be interesting to see how the Yellow Jackets react to Coach Paul Hewitt challenging Tech fans and his critics.  Having a coach in open debate with his fans and media during a season is unique, but maybe the players will see it as their coach having their back and will play well. Tech opened a 7.5-favorite at Las Vegas and online sportsbooks.  Tech fans disappointed in the Jackets would be surprised to learn that Hewitt’s club is 13-8 against the spread.

3. Tennessee isn’t playing terrific ball right now, but they might catch Kentucky at the right time.  The Wildcats had a fairly easy time of it beating South Carolina in a 9PM EST game on Thursday night and now have to play at noon against the Vols.  Lexington to Knoxville is a short trip, but the schedulemaker doesn’t do UK any favors with a late Thursday game followed by traveling to play at noon.  

4. USC takes on Oregon State tonight after a Thursday night second half collapse against Oregon that was as bad a half of basketball as you’ll ever seen.  Leading by 9 at the half, the Trojans permitted a dreadful Oregon team to outscore them 31-12 in the second half in the 54-44 loss.   After a 14-0 Oregon run earlier in the half, the Ducks closed with a 12-0 run to close things out. Senior starters Mike Gerrity (scoreless) and Dwight Lewis (3 for 14 from the field) were terrible for the Trojans.  Southern Cal opened a 7-point favorite over OSU at Vegas and offshore sportsbooks.

5. Streak players will have trouble making up their mind in the matchup between West Coast Conference dregs San Diego and Pepperdine tonight.  If you take away their previous win and cover in this “rivalry”, San Diego is on an 0-10-1 run against the spread.  Meanwhile, the Waves are 0-8 to the number recently.

Good luck this weekend, and be careful. 

Las Vegas’ M Resort, about 8 miles closer to California than the strip hotels, has an intersting sports betting model, as they hired investment firm Cantor Fitzgerald’s wagering unit, Cantor Wagering, to run their sports book.   

Articles in Fortune and the Wall Street Journal highlighted Cantor’s focus on in-game wagering and the innovative mobile eDeck sports betting unit that allows visitors to bet from anywhere within the casino.  But what the media is missing is that in an era of casino companies being risk averse in the sports book, the M is taking the biggest bets in town.   Serious bettors I know are spending a lot of time at the M.

Sports betting isn’t all the property has to offer.  There’s much more open space than most casinos and it’s clean modern design sets it apart from it’s strip competition.  A top floor bar offers superior vistas of the entire Las Vegas Valley.  Factor in the creative sports betting options and it is definitely worth a visit on your next trip to Vegas.

Here are a handful of items of interest to those interested in betting the college and NBA basketball card on Thursday night. 

1. If you’re looking for UCLA to bounce back from their embarrassing 97-68 blowout loss at Washington last weekend, you’ll want to be on top of the Bruins’ injury situation for their game against Oregon State tonight.  The frontcourt is thin for Ben Howland’s troops as Reeves Nelson (11 points, 5.8 rebounds per game) is out for the weekend after eye surgery and Brendan Lane’s status is up in the air after he injured his ankle in practice this week.  Lane only averages 2.2 points per game, but had a season high 11 in the loss up in Seattle.  In Nelson’s absence his status is more important than it would be otherwise.  The Bruins are favored by 5 on their home floor tonight.

2. Another Pac Ten frontcourt with injury issues is Cal’s.  The Golden Bears have backup center Max Zhang out with a collapsed lung, Markhuri Sanders-Frison playing through some back issues and Omondi Amoke suffering with some shoulder issues.  First-place Cal is the favorite to pull down their first regular season conference title since 1960, but have a tough weekend ahead with Arizona tonight and Arizona State on Saturday.

3. Arizona State, a team benefitting from contributions throughout a deep roster,  heads to Stanford tonight.  The Sun Devils are a 2.5-point favorite at Vegas and online sportsbooks.  Stanford is 5-1 straight up against conference foes at home despite having only 5 scholarship players available for several of those games.

4. Wisconsin has played 6 of their last 9 games at home, but return to the conference road tonight with a trip to Bloomington, Indiana to face the Hoosiers.   Their status as 11-point favorites at Vegas and online sportsbooks seems reasonable considering Indiana has lost 8 in a row, and in failing to cover their last 5 has lost each of those games by 14 points or more.   Those close to the program insist the Hoosiers are getting better, but this already thin club is still trying to recover from not only the Kelvin Sampson era but key injury losses earlier this season.

5. Thursday’s NBA card appears to be headlined by the Cavaliers/Celtics clash, but that game loses some luster if Paul Pierce doesn’t play.  Doc Rivers suggests that it is “most likely” that Pierce doesn’t go tonight, as he is suffering from both the flu and a bad thumb.  The Celtics look like a team in decline and continue to disappoint bettors with a miserable 6-18 pointspread mark on their home court.

Some news and notes for college basketball bettors as we head into the weekend.

1. North Carolina is not only 2-10 against the spread in their last 12 games, but those 10 non-covers have been by a combined 116.5 points to the pointspread.   How did this team beat Ohio State, blow out Michigan State, and lose to Kentucky in Lexington by only 2 back in December?   With yet another injury to one of their bigs, Ed Davis has a broken wrist and may be out for the season.  But on this team with 7 McDonald’s All-Americans, nobody is stepping up.

2. Pierre Henderson-Niles has left the Memphis basketball team with just 8 games left in his college career.  While the burly Henderson-Niles is best known for a near-brawl with fans at UAB last season, and is limited offensively, the Tigers do lose their second leading rebounder.  But when you look at the bizarre series of social media posts by Henderson-Niles you have to wonder if he was a malcontent and if the Tigers will be better off not having him around.

3. You’ve heard of road/home differential, but the Washington Huskies are ridiculous.  After their blowout loss at Cal on Thursday night, Washington remains winless away from Seattle.  Away from home, Lorenzo Romar’s charges are 0-7 straight up, 0-7 against the spread, and have lost those 7 games by a combined 78 and failing to cover the pointspread set by Vegas and online sportsbooks by a remarkable 74 points.   Unfortunately for our purposes, Saturday’s game at Stanford looks like a case of go-against vs. go-against.

4. Georgia is improving, but have trouble handling prosperity. If they win again, know that since Christmas they have lost immediately after all 4 of their wins.   3 of those were double digit covers.

5.  OK, amidst all this negativity, let’s point out a bright spot.  After a 5-11 start, including 0-5 in Missouri Valley Conference play, Drake has reeled off a 9-2 pointspread streak, failing only to cover in their two games against Valley dominator Northern Iowa.  Unheralded second-year coach Mark Phelps has done a great job keeping the Bulldogs together and competitive through the grind of a very physical conference.  

Good luck this weekend, and be careful.

First, look to avoid all props that have multiple results possible. Turn the odds into a probability percentage (like 3-1=25%, 4-1=20%, etc.) add them up and some of these things are at 180% (an 80% takeout) or more.   Look to bet yes/no, over/under, team vs. team, etc. You can find good things even with 30 cent lines (the equivalent of -115 on both sides).  The juice built into bets like “first player to score TD” and “margin of victory” is enormous. 

Secondly, take your weak books and compare their props to what the lines are for the same props at strong books that have been hammered over mutliple days.   You can find bets that are -170 at a sharp book that your weak or local book has at -115 for the same prop.  I find good plays every year simply by comparing and contrasting. Good luck in the Super Bowl.

Here are 5 items of interest to basketball bettors heading into the weekend.

1. Louisville coach Rick Pitino hasn’t had the best year.  And his basketball team has done little to buoy his spirits.  Pitino was highly critical of his team’s defense this week, saying “The effort is there.  The guys are willing to pay the price.  We’re just a weak defensive team.”  Catching three hoops at Vegas and online sportsbooks, the Cardinals head to Morgantown on Saturday, but may enjoy a bit of a matchup edge, as WVU’s strength is not at the point guard position.

2. The bottom half of the SEC West is weak, weak, weak.  LSU, Arkansas, and Auburn not only are all ranked 120th or lower in the country by the major power ratings, but have been pointspread disasters as well, with a combined 15-27 mark against the spread.

3. The equivalent teams in the Big Ten are Penn State, Iowa, and Indiana, none of whom crack the Top 100 in any power ratings and combining for 23-33 against the pointspread.

4. Kentucky was going to lose sooner, or later, but apparently not all of their fans were aware of that. The Get-A-Lifers among Kentucky’s loyal following have taken to using social networking sites to harshly criticize the Big Blue players directly. Patrick Patterson, among others, is not amused.   Does UK bounce back from their disapointing loss and take care of Vanderbilt as a sizable favorite?   Or does their disappointment show?   Off their big win in Knoxville, Vandy could be in letdown mode themselves, as road dogs off of a upset road win is a tough subset for bettors to make profitable.

5. The other side of that Kentucky upset, South Carolina, takes on an improving Georgia five on Saturday.   Their focus will be interesting to see and a letdown is possible, as the scene doesn’t get any wilder following an upset than it was in Columbia on Tuesday night.  Devan Downey’s coming out party wasn’t a great game for him until a few late clutch hoops were made.  In fact, the 30 points he scored on 9 for 29 shooting saw his scoring average in SEC games go down.

Good luck this weekend.  And be careful.

Proposition wagering on the Super Bowl grows in popularity every year, but props are being released extra slowly this year. While some Vegas casinos have finally started releasing them, offshore and online sportsbooks have been a lot slower in getting things cranked up this year.   I had planned on releasing some props to my customers by now, but there just isn’t a lot out there as of yet.   When it comes to posting props, offshore sportsbooks are at least a couple of days behind compared to where they’ve been in past years.

The reason?   Here’s one theory. Offshore sportsbooks largely have a smarter clientele than they did a few years ago when more people were playing online.  The serious bettors are still around, while the casual, less-informed players have largely gone.   So the online sportsbooks want to let the value seekers in Vegas take their shots, and then when the lines get straightened out, the offshores will largely just copy the props they want to have out there.  

We’ll give you a “no-handicapping” prop strategy on Monday.  So keep your eyes open for that and have a great weekend.

1. German import Elias Harris has been magnificent for Gonzaga, averaging 16 points per game and nearly doubling the rebounding output of any other Bulldog with over 8 per.  After playing in a pro league in Germany, it is a surprise to the San Jose Mecury News’ Jon Wilner that Gonzaga managed to get him eligible.    Vegas and online sportsbooks have the Zags favored by 12 at Santa Clara tonight.

2. Mike Gerrity, a transfer at USC, received a lot of press when he got off to a hot start after becoming eligible.  But Gerrity is only 13 for 42 from the field in the last 7 games for the Trojans, as opponents now have film available to game plan against the Trojans.  While Gerrity’s scoring has suffered, he has contributed in other ways, particularly notching an impressive 17 assists to only 2 turnovers in his last 3 games.

3. Oregon State (hosting Gerrity and USC tonight, Trojans are favored by 3) played about as bad a game as you’ll find in a 59-35 loss at middling (at best) Stanford last week.  The Beavers had only 3 assists in the contest and turned the ball over 19 times.  Not the ratio that Craig Robinson (”President Obama’s brother-in-law”!!!!!!) is looking for.

4. Early bettors drove Purdue up from a 8-point favorite over Wisconsin to a 9.5-point choice at Vegas and online sportsbooks. UW is really starting to feel the effects of the loss of big man Jon Leuer to injury. After coming together to defeat Northwestern, the Badgers have failed to cover 3 in a row, though they won 2 of the 3 and failed to cover the spread by 4 points or less in each instance.  Wisconsin held serve at home on January 9th, but Leuer was healthy back then.

5. Another big line move tonight was Virginia Tech being bet down from a 4.5-point dog at Virginia to just +2.  The action at Nevada and online sportsbooks indicates that Hokie star guard Malcolm Delaney is likely significantly healthier after a gimpy 4 for 15 from the field in a 1-point win over Boston College over the weekend.  

All the best to you in Thursday night’s basketball.

Big weekend of college hoops upcoming.  Let’s tip it off with 5 items of interest for those who like to put their money where their opinion is. 

You’ve seen the amount of research we do in this space, which is for the purposes of providing winning pointspread selections to our late telephone service customers.   We’re 17-7 the past couple of weeks and will be working hard on this stuff through the end of the Final Four and NBA regular season.  Call 1-770-649-1078 for rates and details on our late phone service, which is a documented long-term winning proposition.  

Here’s your weekend Starting 5.

1. What do Kansas (17-1 on the season), Texas (17-1), Kentucky (18-0), UAB (16-2), and Michigan State (16-3) have in common?   None of them are any better than .500 against the pointspread heading into the weekend action.   Simply riding the best teams is far from a winning approach in college basketball.

2. What do Northeastern, Drake, Detroit, Oregon State, St. Bonaventure, Southern Miss, Arkansas State, and Arkansas State have in common?   They’re getting the money.  These teams of modest accomplishment are all 63% or better against the pointspread on the season.    This is not to say that these teams will continue to win to the spread, in fact it’s likely they won’t.  The lesson here is that there are plenty of different places you can go in an effort to beat the Vegas and online sportsbooks.  And it isn’t always with the high-profile, spotlight teams.

3. Marquette escapes the wintry gloom of Milwaukee and is rewarded with…..the wintry gloom of Syracuse as they travel to take on the Orangemen.  These clubs enter the game on completely different emotional arcs.  The Orangemen are pretty satisfied with a sweep of their rare three-game road trip. The Warriors Golden Eagles are being rightly condemned for their loss at Depaul.  A double digit favorite at Vegas and online sportsbooks, Marquette became the Big East team to lose a conference game to Depaul in nearly two years.   MU was off a 93-63 steamrolling of Providence in their previous game and clearly had their mind on this visit to the Carrier Dome.  Though SU is the much better team, a good effort by a suddenly-hungry Marquette team (4 conference losses by a total of 6 points) would be no surprise.

4. Off their first loss of the season, Texas visits Gampel Pavilion on Saturday to take on UConn. Surprised that Texas didn’t push for the game to be at the Hartford Civic Center, where UConn has less of a home court edge.   This will be the Huskies second game without coach Jim Calhoun.  After a sluggish start, UConn rolled St. John’s on Wednesday night, with the Johnnies being very compliant visitors.  St. John’s coach Norm Roberts muttered “didn’t guard” over and over again during the post-game press conference.  Texas will likely play a little defense and shoot better than the 2 for 17 that St. John’s converted from outside the arc.  George Blaney is a highly respected coach, but how will UConn react to Calhoun’s absence in the preparation and play of this game against a top-notch opponent?

5. Nobody has been more dominant in any conference than BYU.  It’ll be interesting to see how the Cougars fare against a talented group of San Diego State Aztecs.  SDSU beat Utah 60-58 in Salt Lake City this week but should have won by more.  The Aztecs shot only 5 for 11 from the line in the last two minutes, and 10-23 on their free throws for the game.  You couldn’t ask much more out of BYU thus far.  The Cougars schedule has been modest but wins over Arizona State and UTEP look more impressive now than they did then.  And BYU has been wiping out the weaker teams on their schedule. But this might be a tough spot for them, as home dogs off a dog win are a pretty good play and the Aztecs are an athletic team.  Definitely a Saturday game to keep an eye on.

Hope something here helped you out.  Good luck this weekend, and be careful.  

A few notes worth noting for those interested in betting on the AFC and NFC Championship games this weekend.

Jets at Colts:

• There was some Colts -7 early, especially laying -115 or so, but the line has been bet up to a flat 7.5.
• The big mover of the football weekend is the total in this game.  Opened at 41, which didn’t last long, now down to 39. 
• When the Colts famously benched their starters in Game 15 they were outgaining the Jets 296-154.
• The Jets are practically a reincarnation of the Super Bowl champion 2000 Ravens.  A ferocious, disruptive, turnover-creating defense, a solid running game, and a quarterback that they’re terrified of trusting.  
• Mark Sanchez, recently compared unfavorably with Jamarcus Russell, has averaged 5.6 yards per pass attempt or less in 3 of his past 4 games, and he has 14 TD passes and 21 interceptions on the season.
• While it’d be nice to have the perpetually injured Bob Sanders around, the remaining pieces of the Colts defense are pretty healthy.

Vikings at Saints:

• The Saints opened as a 3.5-point favorite, which was bet up to 4, and is now back down to 3.5 in most places.
• The total has been a pretty solid 52 in Vegas, but is heading upward in the desert, and has crept up to 53 at some offshore and online sportsbooks.
• The AFC Championship game is not the only game featuring Buddy Ryan’s influence. Both defensive coordinators, the Saints’ Gregg Williams and Minny’s Leslie Frazier, are Buddy Ryan disciples.
• The Vikings were the only NFC team to go undefeated at home, and their last 5 wins have been by 17 points or more.  The road has been a different story, with losses in 3 of the last 4 trips being losses, all by 6 or more.
• The Saints of the first dozen weeks of the season and last week were dominant.  If you can forgive the final month, and there would be reasons to do that, this team something special.
• As fantastic has Favre has been all year, you would think he would come up with a big game, wouldn’t you?  After all, this is what he came back for. 
• The Saints are a lot healthier than they’ve been for a while.  Vikings DT Kevin Williams hasn’t been practicing (knee), but will go on Sunday.

Hopefully, something here at least gave you some food for thought.  While there are only two games in football, we anticipate a lot of value in the basketball this weekend.   Call 770-649-1078 to take advantage of our hard work and experience.