Howard Schnellenberger’s been around the block a few times, to say the least, and he’s done a great job in building the Florida Atlantic program from a gleam in some administrators’ eyes to the top program in the Sun Belt. Of course the top program in the Sun Belt is like saying that you have the best pulled pork barbecue in Northern Minnesota, but still, FAU isn’t half-bad, whipping Memphis in a bowl game last year, hanging around with USF, etc.

But while the Owls have a lot of talent back (relatively speaking), there is still a huge class difference between FAU and the major powers in college football. Their best chance is to catch their major conference opponents not taking them seriously.

So if you were thinking of taking 22.5 with FAU at Texas next Saturday, you should be aware of comments that Coach Schnellenberger made to the FAU student newspaper. Schnellenberger said that Texas “has great talent, but they aren’t tough, they aren’t a physically tough football team.”

Why would you fire up your opponent by calling them out on their toughness? I have no idea. But I’d hate to be a FAU wide receiver going over the middle of the field in this ballgame.

And if part of your handicap was that that Mack Brown might be gentlemanly by not scoring late in the game, you might want to rethink how juicy those 22.5 points actually appear in that ballgame.

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Later this morning (Tuesday) at 10:50AM Central (11:50 EDT) I’ll be on the venerable Norm Hitzges’ show in Dallas. Here’s a little handicapping broadcasting history for you…back when Norm was handicapping college football on ESPN he had what was likely the most prodigious lengthy win streak in broadcasting history, going something like 27-4 to conclude the 1993 college football season. Norm has been at the forefront of the Dallas sports media for decade and he knows more than a little about the wagering world. Appearances with him are always rollicking good fun, so listen in on 1310 The Ticket.

On Wednesday at 7:05PM Pacific Time (10:05PM EDT) I’ll be on the Wheels After Work program with Ken Vance (Ken’s co-host Brian Wheeler is off tomorrow) on Portland’s 95.5 The Game. I don’t know Ken, but maybe I’ll phony it up and pretend we’re old friends (the way radio people do) just to try to throw him off.

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Today’s the first day of the football season. It is for us here anyway. We’ve actually been buried in football preparation for a while now, and starting today and going forward we’ll be sharing some of that here with you.

So what kind of preparation takes place? Original work, first. After doing my own work all summer, I actually just bought a few of the annuals in the last couple of days. I prefer that my own opinions are not unduly influenced by those of others. So it is interesting to see how the conclusions I reach differ from others (let’s play out the season before handing the Lombardi Trophy to the Vikings, please). But then again, I’m looking at different factors.

I’m really not interested in what team is going to finish ahead of what other team in the standings, I’m looking for teams that are going to be overrated or underrated heading into the campaign from a betting perspective. I couldn’t be any less interested in the Heisman Trophy (until the pursuit of it becomes a slight pointspread factor in a few games late in the season), while many have great interest in the goings on of the New York Athletic Club. So some of these annuals are more valuable to me than others.

Last year I saw the 49ers as an underrated team (remember the young talented Niners ready to burst on the scene?)…until I saw that everyone else considered them to be that way as well. And then they went from underrated to overrated in my mind, based just on public perception. In addition to the aforementioned Vikings, now that the Jets have picked up Favre, they suddenly may have a little too much expected out of them as well.

The one annual you must have if you’re looking to do statistical work in the college and pros is Marc Lawrence’s Playbook Annual. I’d say that even if I didn’t offer a slight contribution to it. What’s especially strong about Marc’s is that it contains both college and pro in the same book. I also like the alphabetical listings. I understand the thought of breaking things down by conference and division, but in oft-used handicapping resource I far prefer alphabetical.

For college personnel information obviously Phil Steele’s book is tops and Blue Ribbon is good, too. I’ve hardly done a comprehensive view of the marketplace but Marc, Phil, and Blue Ribbon will all be references for me early, while I’ll use Marc’s book throughout the year as well due to the ease in finding past statistical data for both college and pros.

There’s such saturation coverage of the NFL these days I wonder if there’s even a need for an NFL annual anymore. Fantasy football has brought it all to the forefront. NFL information is common currency. That’s helpful to the handicapper in that everyone’s following the same narrative, creating a groundswell of opinion providing greater value than ever before to the contrarian thinker.

So there’s some light thoughts on preseason preparation and some of the widely available football resources. If you’d like a copy of my Maximum Profit Football Annual (and you’re not already on our mailing list) listing a few overrated and underrated teams, visit FootballAnnual.com to claim your free copy.

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Leisure and football work have been taking turns on our schedule all summer long (ahhh, the benefits of having my Baseball Guy, whose been crushing it with our totals-only service this summer). With August here, it is back to work full time and starting in a few days you’ll be benefiting from that work here.

You’ll want to be visiting frequently all month long as we get ready for some football, providing you with previews, injury situations, personnel changes, and the kind of updated information that the football annuals published in May could never possibly be accurate on.

Visit here frequently in August to benefit from our hard work.

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I’ve heard a lot of my horse buddies complaining about the lack of quality in horse racing these days. New York tracks have tons of state bred races. Even at Saratoga, they have to card turf sprints (horses that don’t have enough speed for dirt sprints nor enough stamina for traditional turf routes) to get full fields. California tracks have a storm of 5 and 6-horse fields as well, even at Del Mar.

A quick look at the Wednesday Saratoga entries illustrates the problem. Races 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7, are all maiden races. In other words, there will not be a horse that has won a race racing at Saratoga between 1:02 and 4:55 tomorrow afternoon. I realize that the 2-year old maiden special weight races can be strong up at the spa, but only Race 7 is one of those. Half of that sextet are claiming races.

If this is the premier race meet in America, what are the other tracks carding?

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While much of the online gaming world continues to thrive quietly, without the publicity and advertising storm of a few years ago, the same can’t be said for the industry’s premier publicity hounds.

Calvin Ayre’s penchant for thumbing his nose at the US Government has, as most expected, come back to haunt online gaming leader Bodog. Forbes reports tonight that the heat is on Bodog, with $24 million confiscated from accounts kept by the company and their payment processors. Further action would be no surprise.

Bodog founder Ayre supposedly left the company this summer, though there’s a surprising lack of information in his Wikipedia entry on the controversy that has surrounded the mercurial gaming entrepreneur. You get the sense that Wikipedia Sanitizer was a full time position in Vancouver.

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Obviously, it would be exciting to have a Triple Crown winner, but I’m not rooting for Big Brown tomorrow. The connections make it nearly impossible to consider this horse any kind of “feel good” story.

The Trainer: A few years ago, I was getting some pretty good information from a horse racing source in New York on horses that improved form with no rhyme or reason. The commonality in the selections were a pair of trainers, and one of them was Rick Dutrow. It didn’t take a cynic to suspect that pharmacology helped these horses as much as anything else the trainer could do.

Having been suspended at least once a year in every year of his training career, Dutrow’s reputation for dishonesty is well-earned. With drug use by horses having weakened the breed as well as adding an overriding element of uncertainty and dishonesty to the sport, a trainer with the past (even recent past) of Dutrow doesn’t deserve the honor of training the first Triple Crown winner in 30 years.

The Owner: Another New Yorker had alerted me to Big Brown’s dishonorable owner a while back, and the media is finally paying attention. David Evans of Bloomberg did a fine job deconstructing the disreputable history and shady aspirations of Big Brown’s owner Michael Iavarone. Investors in Iavarone’s horsey hedge fund should arrange for their certain-to-follow binding arbitration in advance.

I’d love to see a Triple Crown winner. But it would be desirable to have the connections of that winner not leave a nasty trail of slime in their wake as they enter the Big Sandy winner’s circle following a sweep of the Triple Crown.

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One of the things we mentioned in a note on baseball last week was our “totals only” baseball service here at Strategic Sports Publishing. Over/unders are the only way we attack baseball, and our “Baseball Guy” continues to have a great year, now sitting at 58-33 (64.7%) on the season as documented by The Sports Monitor. This week we’re ranked #1 in the industry in the all-important “one-star compare”, which offers a comparison of net units assuming the same amount bet on any play, which is the way we approach things.

Those details about our baseball spurred some questions. Let’s cover the answers for you.

Q. Is your baseball totals handicapper (name removed)?

A. No. My baseball guy is not a public handicapper. He is a close friend of mine who I’ve known since about two weeks after I started publishing sports handicapping material via my first book in 1996. For years now he has handicapped the sport of baseball exclusively and privately for us and us only. He has no other connection with any other service.

Q. As a client, I’ve noticed another service using an awful lot of your baseball guy’s plays. Does he handicap for (name removed)?

A. No, he doesn’t, but his picks do seem to influence some others greatly, don’t they? Our clients retain an advantage, however, as we often influence the line in the first hour after release (9AM Eastern Time). So our clients get these games at better lines than anyone else. I’ve also noticed that our All Sports VIP service is less than the service of others who seem to be…ahem…”influenced” by our Baseball Guy’s plays. So if you want them at the best lines and cost effectively, contact us directly.

Q. Why don’t you play sides?

A. We did play baseball sides for two years, but our profit was tremendous in totals and the sides were not nearly as profitable. Focusing on just totals for the past several years streamlines his workload and enhances his focus. The results speak for themselves.

Q. How do your current customers react to things like your “rest of May free” promotion if they didn’t get a couple of free weeks when they signed up?

A. Our customers have done well with our service and the last thing they’re going to be concerned with is whether or not someone is getting in $100 cheaper than they did. Strategic Sports Publishing is a “long-term relationship” business and not a “buy today’s big winner” outfit. Customers have no problem with us occasionally reaching out to forge new relationships.

Our “rest of May free” promotion continues. Call 1-770-649-1078 for more information. Please leave a message if you get voice mail, as I’m splitting my time between football research and enjoying myself following a productive basketball campaign and I’m not always by the office phone.

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The state of Delaware is considering the addition of a sports wagering component to their state lottery. It would probably be a hideously unfavorable parlay card offering of some sort. Despite the fact that it would only be available in 1954 of the nearly 3,600,000 square miles in the United States, the NFL is coming after this thing guns blazing, with a full page ad in a Delaware newspaper against the proposal.

The Preakness seems a walkover after the performance of Big Brown in the Kentucky Derby, but there are a couple of things that might make it worth checking out the past performances on Saturday.

Steve Crist of the Daily Racing Form pointed out earlier in the week that only 6 of the 14 odds-on Preakness favorites in the last 50 years have won the second jewel of the Triple Crown.

Additionally, the seeming overconfidence of Big Brown’s trainer Richard Dutrow before the Derby is gone, and Dutrow seems pretty realistic heading in this race. One of the horse’s owners expects him to bounce off the huge Derby effort. Dutrow admits that Big Brown won’t run as well on two weeks rest, though he does consider him to be the likely winner based on the lack of competition.

It is still tough to see Big Brown getting much of a challenge, but anything could happen, and that’s why they run around the track.

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This is the story about an obscure baseball betting rule, Congress, the resurgence of local bookies, and why it is more important than ever before to understand the betting rules of the sports that you wager on.

I have a guy who handicaps baseball for my customers (totals only, no sides) and he does an excellent job, winning every week this season so far with just about 15 net winners after juice at this point. He called me one night last week to chat. As I wasn’t following the scores, I asked him how we were doing that night.

He was worried about our under in the Twins/ChiSox game, which had gone into extras after being 2-2 in regulation. The game was in the 12th inning with the score 3-3, but was in a rain delay. While we chatted, the game was suspended. “What happens now?” I asked.

He was pretty sure that the ruling would be that the total would stand, but not 100% certain, as it was such a rare situation for a game to rained out while tied in extra innings. Sure enough, a check of the rules and regulations for baseball betting confirmed that we would be credited with a winner.

Here’s the rule. “The following applies for over/under and run line wagering. If a game is called or suspended in extra innings, the score will be determined after the last full inning unless the home team scores to tie, or takes the lead in the bottom half of the inning, in which case the score is determined at the point of the game being called.”

So in this instance, since the score had been 3-3 at the end of the 11th, the winner was the under (as well as +1.5 for run line players). Those who played either the Twins or White Sox would have their wager refunded as “no action”.

But with so many bettors once again playing with local bookies, would bettors playing with Jimmy or Tony (those first names combine to make up over 40% of all local bookes) be properly credited with the win?

Being aware of the rules is more important than ever. Congressional legislation getting in the way of banking relationships between offshore wagering entities and American banks has led to a resurgence of local bookies to fill the void. Bookmakers coast-to-coast who had left the business, or were on the verge of leaving the business, are now serving their local bettors in large numbers once again.

While a legit, reputable, offshore sports book will know how to grade something in unique circumstances, some locals are ignorant of when a game is official for betting purposes and when it a bet is to be “no action”. Other local bookies may understand the rules, but are simply not predisposed to giving the bettor a fair shake unless he asserts himself.

So bettors should always be on top of their daily results, and that is doubly true if they are back to dealing with local bookies, as so many are these days.

Getting back to my baseball guy, after winning his only Thursday play we are now 46-28 (62%+) on the season with our Strategic Sports Publishing over/unders (as documented by The Sports Monitor). The record is even a little better than that for some of us. Why? The plays are released by 9AM EDT every morning, and playing early has many of us with a slightly better record than the current documented mark.

If you’re interested in following these powerful over/under selections you can take advantage of a tremendous offer. Get the rest of May at no charge when you sign up for our month-to-month All Sports VIP service. Call 1-770-649-1078 for details.

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