What would the pointspread have been on this Sunday’s Patriots/Jets game if Tom Brady was healthy?  Let’s see if we can figure it out.

Each of the last three seasons the Patriots were favored by either 6 or 6.5 over the Jets in their games played at the Meadowlands.  But last season’s game was in the season opener, and the Patriots subsequently turned into the most dominant team in NFL history.  Meanwhile the Jets, a playoff team the previous year, tanked to a 4-12 record.

Late last season, the Patriots were favored by 20.5 at home against the New Yorkers, indicating a difference between the teams of about 17 points on a neutral field.

But you’ve got to bring the Patriots power rating back down to earth a little bit simply because of the offeseason, and you need to boost the Jets because of the acquisition of Brett Favre and other improvements.  So let’s take away 2 points from New England baseline, and add 3 points to the Jets rating.

So our new number is Patriots 12 points better than the Jets on a neutral field, dictating that the Patriots would have been about a 9-point favorite.  With inexperienced Matt Cassell starting for the Patriots this week, the Patriots are a 1.5-point underdog.

Our educated guesswork suggests that Tom Brady is worth 10.5 points in the pointspread.   With an unproven backup of his own (but unlike Cassell, at least Jim Sorgi was a proven college quarterback), an injury to Peyton Manning might be worth about a 9-point adjustment.

Clearly when it comes to the betting markets Tom Brady and Peyton Manning tower in importance over any other player in the NFL. Nobody else in the league would even be close.