The NFL kicks off Thursday night, and quite frankly, you don’t have a clue.

Oh, you think you have a clue.  You’ve probably spent a good bit of time this summer studying the NFL.  You’ve looked at roster moves, at quarterback depth charts, and at young players ready to emerge.  You’ve poured over draft rankings, and have looked at starter-on-starter performance during the preseason.

And that goes double if you’re wasting your time participating in a fantasy football league.

But there’s a problem.  All your hard work is for naught.  You have absolutely no idea what’s going to happen.  After all, people with more knowledge than you, a more significant football background than you, and a direct line to decision makers around the league, have no idea what will happen.  So how could you?

I present to you ESPN’s panel of experts predictions prior to last season.   These journalists, analysts, and commentators cover the league full time. Several played in the league, and played well.  Yet they had no clue last season.  Just look at their 2007 NFL projections.

The Giants won the Super Bowl last year.  Yet all 12 of ESPN’s experts predicted that the New Yorkers would not even make the playoffs.

The Giants won at Green Bay to win the NFC Championship.  All 12 ESPNers predicted the Packers would not even make the playoffs.

In their first playoff game, the Giants won at Tampa Bay.  All 12 of ESPN’s experts predicted that the division-winning Bucs would not make the playoffs.

Conversely, the panel of experts unanimously projected that the Bears would win their division.  All 12 were wrong, as the Bears finished 7-9 and failed to make the postseason.

All 12 panelists had the Saints winning their division.  The 7-9 Saints failed to even make the playoffs.

In the AFC, the vast majority picked the Ravens and Broncos to make the playoffs.  Neither was even close.   And going back to previous years wouldn’t yield terribly different results, with very smart people making outlandishly wrong preseason predictions in the NFL.

NFL teams are so close in ability, and have so many players and coaches turn over every single year, it becomes a matter of chemistry. And chemistry is exceedingly tough to predict.

Sure, you can look at the Patriots and know they’re probably going to be good.  And you know the Falcons will mightily struggle (though their defense bears some watching), but the vast majority of NFL teams are probably within about a field goal of each other at this time.  Then injuries, player development, chemistry, coaching, and momentum will take hold and we’ll see some separation.

I’ve got a couple of games that I’m looking at in the NFL this weekend.  But I’ll be looking for reasons to be as lightly involved as possible.  In a week or two (and in some instances, in a day or two) we’ll have a much better handle on these teams.  And there’s a long season ahead of us, with plenty of NFL opportunity.

But this weekend we know nothing.  No matter how much you think you know, realize how limited your knowledge in.  As we open a very long season, don’t put yourself in a position to get hurt this weekend in the NFL.