Some of the best sports wagers you’ll make involve a team that both has matchup advantages, and is either more motivated or somehow in a better situation than their opponent.   Unfortunately, you find more instances where handicapping figures conflict than when they agree. There are two pretty good illustrations of that on Wednesday’s card.

College Football: Ball State is playing spectacular football in the MAC.   They’re undefeated and have outgained every opponent they’ve played. And tonight they visit Mount Pleasant, Michigan to take on Central Michigan, a team that has won the past two MAC titles and is also undefeated in the conference.  Road favorites on a long winning streaks can be a play-against when facing a solid opponent and two-time defending MAC champ CMU is certainly that.   So why aren’t we interested in taking +6.5 with homestanding Central Michigan?

A look at the statistics tells us why.  Ball State is crunching people, and are ranked at the top or near the top in nearly every major statistical category in the MAC. Their average win against conference opposition is 37-15, while CMU’s average win is 29-25.  How has CMU stayed undefeated?  Their conference wins have been by 3, 1, 10, 10, 2, and 3.   BSU averages 6.9 yards per play in conference, giving up 5.0.   CMU allows 5.7 and gives up 5.9. A team undefeated in conference play giving up more per play than they gain?  Amazing.

Can we become more comfortable with Central Michigan in lieu of those stats?  QB Dan LeFevour missed some time midseason, but his backup was excellent.   And CMU has a couple of major weaknesses.  They allow 8.2 yards per pass attempt in MAC play, second worst in the conference, and they run for only 3.6 yards per carry in MAC play, also second worst.  I couldn’t overcome those stats and stayed off the game despite trying to make a case for CMU.

College Basketball:  St. Louis’ players are motivated to beat Kent State in the Billikins new building tonight.  SLU senior Tommie Liddell told the St. Louis Post Dispatch, “Barry, Kevin and I have already explained the situation with Kent State to the freshmen. They know how big the game is to us. … I told them we have to win.”

We’re always looking for a motivated foe in early season college hoops, so did we pull the trigger on St. Louis?  Nope.  The problem here is that there are seven of those freshman.  And the reason the upperclassmen are motivated is that Kent State beat them 81-40 last year.  And they just have to beat them by 2 this year, as the line is 1.

With all that youth on SLU and Kent State still having a good team, and likely some of the same matchup advantages they had last year, we just can’t pull the trigger on St. Louis this evening.

Always More Confict than Agreement:  I’m not action hungery, I just want to make good bets.  So as is the case in these two games tonight, I find a lot more conflict than I do agreement.   A lot of work ends up appearing to be wasteful.   But doing all the work makes you familiar with the teams and familiar with what constitutes a good play when you find an opportunity when the matchups, the situation, and motivation end up in agreement.