Big pointspreads to deal with in Thursday night football.  USC is favored by 25.5 with the over/under line at 52 as they head north to take on Oregon State in Pac Ten play.  18-point favorite Tulane hosts SMU in Conference USA with a total of 49.

USC at Oregon State: Possible rain earlier in the day at Oregon State, but it will be OK by game time, and the temperature will fall from the 60’s into the 50’s during this one. Corvallis has been a difficult site for USC in recent years.  You probably remember Oregon State’s 33-31 upset of USC here two years ago as a 10.5 point underdog.  OSU led 33-10 at one point and the Trojans scored a TD with 7 seconds left but missed the two-point conversion that would have sent it into OT.  The previous game here was a barnburner as well, with 18-point favorite Southern Cal falling behind 13-0, scoring 28 straight points, then holding on for a 28-20 win on a foggy night in 2004.

Last season Oregon State lost 24-3 in LA in a game lacking offense, with the Trojan yardage edge being 287-176.  You know all about USC’s offensive pop and their incredible defense, so let’s take a look at Oregon State.

Lyle Moevao is a tough kid, but not a top notch QB.  He has 6 TD’s and 4 INT’s thus far on the season, but played poorly in Oregon State’s 45-14 no-show at Penn State. A wild card for OSU is Sammy Stroughter, who had 8 catches for 127 yards and a 70-yard TD return here two years ago in the Beaver upset win.  Stroughter missed most of last season with depression and while he has 3 TD’s on 21 catches this year, he has not been the big play threat that he was, averaging just over 12 yards per catch.

Oregon State doesn’t have a strong running attack. The leading rusher is a true freshman out of Houston named Jacquizz Rogers, averaging 88 yards per game.   I have to admit that Jacquizz was not a name that my wife and I considered for any of our children.

25.5 seems like a big number considering the history at this site.  But Oregon State has a mediocre defense at this time, with all of their front seven being new starters.  It’s tough to see anyone getting a lot of offensive production against the Trojans with all the NFL prospects making big plays in their backfield.  USC has more than seven days of rest between every game until October 11th when they take on Oregon. With only two games under their belt and having not played since crushing Ohio State, they should be fresh and ready to go here.

SMU at Tulane: Tulane misses Matt Forte, currently running well for the Chicago Bears.  They’re averaging only 18 points per game, but their three games have included contests against East Carolina and Alabama, both of whom they played tough.  Tulane shockingly outgained a flat, post-Clemson Alabama team 318-172 but lost 20-6 in that Week 2 affair in Tuscaloosa. A week later it took a late ECU drive to beat Tulane.  A win over Louisiana-Monroe followed. 1-2 Tulane has good balance, with 121 passes and 114 runs on the season.

Balance is something SMU doesn’t have.  June Jones lives to throw, throw, throw, and the Mustangs average only 31 yards per game rushing, last in Division 1-A. Taking on a run ‘n shoot team is “like going to Disneyland for a defensive back” according to Tulane cornerback Charles Harris, who is pleased not to have to deal with any of that pesky run support.

New SMU coach Jones returns to the Super Dome, site of his Sugar Bowl beatdown as coach of Hawaii last January.  The atmosphere will be different tonight, with less than 20,000 in attendance.

18 points seems like a lot to lay for a Tulane team that only averages that many, but remember the tough schedule that Tulane has played.   1-3 SMU has only beaten 1-AA Texas State (and were outgained in that one).  Defensively, the Mustangs are allowing 46 points and 531 yards per game. Losses have been to Rice by 29, at Texas Tech by 36, and to TCU by 41.  Tulane is less explosive than those three teams, but until SMU can find a quarterback for Jones’ offense the Mustangs will be just plain bad.