In a game that looked a lot more important before the two teams started underachieving this season, Florida State and North Carolina, with a combined 2-7 record against the spread, meet in Chapel Hill.  North Carolina is a 2.5 point home favorite at some books, while you have to lay 3 points at even money on the Heels at others. The total hovers around 48.5.  Weather is not anticipated to be a factor at all.

FSU’s offense is solid, but the Seminoles are saddled with a horrific defense.   The reverse is true for the Tar Heels, a team brandishing a fine defense but one that struggles offensively.   Yard per play stats tell you what these two teams are all about.  Against 1-A opponents, Florida State gains 6.2 yards per play and allows 7.4, while UNC gains 4.4 yards per play and allows 4.1.   Using yards per play against 1-A teams North Carolina has the #8 defense in the land.  Florida State’s offense is ranked 22nd and their defense is #118.

For years Mickey Andrews did fine work with Florida State’s defense.  But the Seminoles pass defense is a disaster area.   The ‘Noles are permitting 11 yards per pass attempt against 1-A opponents, ranking them 120th and last in all of major college football.   Despite this brutal defense, FSU is getting only a field goal or less on the road here.   But the line is kept in check by a putrid Carolina offense that scored 12 points against UConn (on 268 yards), 7 points against Georgia Tech (154 yards), and 3 points against Virginia (174 yards). 

UNC QB TJ Yates was respectable before getting hurt last season, but misses the three recievers that have departed Chapel Hill for the NFL.   Yates is also getting no help from his running game, which is averaging only 2.0 yards per attempt against 1-A opponents.   North Carolina is being kept in games by their defense.  Take away the Georgia Tech game and opponents’ high water marks against UNC are 17 points (East Carolina) and 254 yards (Virginia).  It’ll be interesting to see how the Heels D matches up with a Florida State offense led by the effective Christian Ponder playing quarterback behind a developing offensive line.

Good O/Bad D vs. Bad O/Good D can be a tough call to make.  Florida State has some injuries, while UNC is relatively healthy.  North Carolina students are on fall break, but the crowd doesn’t influence a lot of ACC games anyhow.  The Flaming Spears don’t intimidate the way they used to, a 1-4 record against 1-A teams will do that to a program.  And there’s more focus on whether or not Bobby Bowden will be back next year than what’s happening on the field this season.    But does North Carolina have the offensive weapons to take advantage?