Real World Sports

Thursday Night NFL and College Pointspread Previews

Here’s a mini-preview of each of the three Thursday games.  Weather shouldn’t be a factor anywhere tonight, as the forecasts for Cleveland, Blacksburg, and Salt Lake City are for dry air and calm winds in all three locales.

Denver at Cleveland:  Browns are favored by a field goal laying -115 or -120 with a total of 46.  Brady Quinn, who has thrown only eight passes in games that count in the last 22 months makes the start for the Browns. In August, Quinn was 41-62 for a shade under 7 yards per attempt with a TD and an interception against vanilla preseason defenses.  Books should probably set a line on Braylon Edwards drops as a prop for Browns games.  Would Cleveland have outgained only two opponents on the season if Edwards made catches?  Speaking to their inconsistency, 3-5 Cleveland has seen only two games fall within the 6-point teaser all season.

The 4-4 Broncos scored 114 points in their first three games and 76 points in the five games since.  The enormous production early and the subsequent dropoff leads to the odd situation of the NFL’s #3 team in total offense having scored fewer than 20 points in each of their last five games.   Turnovers are a big issue, as in those five games Denver has a 16-6 turnover disadvantage. Short week doesn’t favor the road team, but at least the Broncos were home last week and had a bye before that.

Maryland at Virginia Tech: Virginia Tech is favored by 3 with a total of 41.5. These border state rivals are hardly rivals at all, as they’ve played only twice since the expansion of the ACC, with the schedule keeping them apart each of the past two years.  Maryland is highly dependent upon Da’Rel Scott, the ACC’s leading rusher, but even the Terps beat writers sound clueless about his availability.  His lead blocking fullback is questionable as well.

Virginia Tech is down their third string quarterback tonight.  But he wasn’t bad when pressed into service against Florida State, and the Hokie offense has been so horrid he could hardly be worse than Sean Glennon or Tyrod Taylor.   Whether you use raw yards or yards per play, with Division 1-AA stats or without, Virginia Tech’s offense is ranked 111th or lower out of 120 1-A teams.

TCU at Utah: Winner has a live shot at a BCS Bowl bid.  The loser is likely Las Vegas Bowl bound. That makes this a big game. The visiting Horned Frogs are favored by 1.5 with a total of 42.5.  Using yards per play as a guide, these are the #2 and #3 ranked defenses in all of college football, but before leaping on the under, realize that they each average 36 points per game on the season as well.  TCU has allowed more than 14 points only at Oklahoma.  Despite permitting only 4.3 yards per play, Utah has seen five oponents go for 21 points or more, and the TCU D is visually more impressive as well.  But the Utes have a strong home field and this is being called the biggest game ever in Salt Lake City.