Thursday night sees North Carolina visiting New Brunswick, NJ (meaningless fact alert) for the first time since 1919 to take on Rutgers.  Both programs are thought to be up ‘n comers under well regarded coaches but both struggled in their first ballgame.  Both the ACC and Big East have been abominable thus far in non-conference play (3-17-1 against the spread combined) but someone has to win this one.  What can we expect from them tonight?

Let’s make the case for each team.

The Case For Rutgers:  North Carolina played poorly in a 35-27 win over McNeese State in their opener.  McNeese State has a very solid 1-AA program (11-1 last year), but the talent level between 1-A and 1-AA should always dictate a larger margin than a single score.

Carolina’s top three running backs are sophomores and RB’s combined for only 69 yards on their 22 carries against their 1-AA opponent.  McNeese State outgained UNC slightly and had more first downs by a 22-14 margin.

While Rutgers offense played poorly in their 24-7 home loss to Fresno State, with the running game struggling to get anything going,  the defense was stout enough. The Scarlet Knights trailed only 10-7 midway through the 4th quarter.  They did wear down late, with that lack of offensive support being a contributing factor.  If UNC struggles with the running game the veteran Rutgers defensive backfield could have a field day, as UNC QB TJ Yates is mistake prone (18 interceptions last year).

North Carolina is a poor traveling team and has not won a game outside of the state of North Carolina since 2002 (they have wins at Duke, at NC State, and at Wake Forest over that time).  The Tar Heels lost by matching 37-10 scores at South Florida and at Wake Forest last season. Rutgers is a tough place to play and the Scarlet Knights need a win badly.

The Case for North Carolina:  McNeese State didn’t see UNC’s full playbook, and Butch Davis will pull out all the stops for this one. While UNC had problems against McNeese State, they had explosive big plays, and Brandon Tate had an 82-yard punt return for a TD, a 57-yard TD reception, and ran three times for 106 yards.  He’s a weapon, and they have multiple weapons at receiver (as does Rutgers).

While they have not played well on the road over the years, it hardly seems fair to blame John Bunting’s failures on second year coach Butch Davis.  Last year the Tar Heels lost only 2 of their 12 games by more than 7 points, and have done a good job hanging around. Despite the poor performance in their McNeese State win, the Tar Heels are a team poised for solid improvement.  With 18 returning starters back in the fold, this is a team ready to move forward.