My colleague Dave Fobare, a Michigander, wrote this as a report for subscribers to my newsletter, The Max.  Here is Dave’s local perspective on the Lions mess, and coach Rod Marinelli’s inability to properly judge his own talent:

Head man Rod Marinelli seems to get a free pass when discussing the travails of the Detroit Lions. Matt Millen, the worst NFL general manager in the history of the league comes in for the lion’s(sorry) share of the blame. As well he should. But Marinelli has made mistakes too. His chief problem seems to be an inability to accurately gauge his own talent.

The 2007 Lions’ secondary was probably the worst in the NFL, and over the offseason M&M moved heaven and earth to shore it up. Three ex-Bucs familiar with the Tampa 2 and Marinelli’s way were brought in. Talented malcontent DT Shaun Rogers was shipped off to Cleveland for CB Leigh Bodden. The DBs looked better in training camp, but as the season approached Marinelli still had not named Bodden a starter. The kid is in his physical prime, and to all observers is a big improvement on CB Travis Fisher, who is really just a nickel back. Sure enough Fisher got the start three weeks ago in Atlanta. The Falcons ran the ball on their first two snaps, but on the third rookie QB Matt Ryan went up top and burned Fisher deep for an easy 62 yard scoring strike. Fisher didn’t come close to laying so much as a hand on the receiver. Later in the game Fisher was pulled for Bodden. The Lions secondary was singed again last week by Aaron Rodgers, but not at the the expense of Bodden.

First round draft choice RT Gosder Cherilus couldn’t manage to beat out veteran George Foster during camp. Foster gave up a sack against Atlanta on a complete whiff that was lowlight reel worthy. Two weeks ago Foster was pulled in the second quarter after giving Packer’s DE Aaron Kampman his 2nd sack of the day and his sixth sack in his last 3 games against Detroit. Cherilus stuffed Kampman the rest of the afternoon. Kampman is maybe the best pass rushing DE in the league right now, and after the Pack ran out to a 21-0 fist half lead last week the Lions were forced to throw on nearly every down. And still Cherilus stuffed Kampman. Cherilus did start against the 49′ers, but hadn’t been officially named the starter even two hours before game time.

This spring’s draft also saw an attempt to improve the MLB spot. Current starter Paris Lenon, a castoff from Green Bay, is almost certainly the worst starting MLB in the NFL, and maybe one of the worst 5 or 10 starting players in the league. So Millen drafted Jordan Dizon out of Colorado. Scouts loved Dizon’s decision making but were skeptical of his size. But Marinelli’s defense in Tampa often sacrificed size for speed and smarts with good success. Early in camp Dizon looked good - fast with good natural instincts. And most importantly a much better tackler than Lenon.

But as camp progressed and Marinelli installed more of the Tampa 2 scheme Dizon began to fall behind. Marinelli expected as much and said so frequently. In the Tampa 2 the MLB has a lot of play calling responsibility that can wear on a youngster acclimating to the NFL. So Lenon remained a starter to start the season.

Well, Lenon was a disaster against the Falcons in the opener. The linemen in front of him didn’t help, but Lenon missed plenty of opportunities. Late in the game Lenon dinged his knee and had to come out of the game. Dizon came in for the last 14 Atlanta snaps. Dizon made 5 tackles and Marinelli admitted that the rookie hadn’t made a single play calling mistake. Rod promised that Dizon would be in the mix for Green Bay. Yet the Packers came and went and Dizon didn’t play a single down. The excuse? The Green Bay offense was far too complex; Dizon would have been lost out there. That is a crock. At least from the standpoint of the ground game. Green Bay runs EXACTLY the same zone blocking scheme. Their running plays look EXACTLY like Detroit’s.

The problem at MLB really goes back further. In Marinelli’s first year back in 2006 he saw just how bad Lenon was. Yet he seemed to blame much of the defense’s poor play on coordinator Donnie Henderson. Henderson was hired because Tampa wouldn’t let coach Joe Barry out of his contract. Henderson was not a Tampa 2 guy, and clashed all year with Marinelli. The thinking was Detroit’s D would improve with the entire staff on the same page in 2007 when Barry could be hired as the DC. So Millen passed on drafting a MLB in 2007. That was too bad, because that draft was loaded with good MLB prospects. The 2008 draft was thin at this spot. Its tough to tease out just who was more responsible for this mistake - Marinelli or Millen. But the fact is Marinelli has misjudged his own talent repeatedly and seems bent on doing it some more in the face of overwhelming evidence. If this season is the last for the Matt Millen regime - and one can only hope - then HC Rod Marinelli will deserve a goodly share of the blame.