Earlier this week I emailed my customers with a NFL prop that had my eyes popping out of my head. I bet “longest punt in the game over 42.5 yards” at a sports book that sounds very much like the nickname for someone named Christopher. This was a great bet, as the Giants punter had a kick of 43 yards or longer in every regular season game before falling victim to the elements in Green Bay. The Patriots punter, after a slow first four games of the season, had only one game where he punted more than once and didn’t have a punt of 43 yards or longer.

I placed the wager, sent the email, and thought, “well, that line will get knocked into shape pretty quickly.”

And it was. Ten minutes later over 42.5 (-115) was still the price, but it quickly went to over 42.5 (-145), then 45.5 minus money, then 46.5 minus money, and by the end of the day was pretty close to where it is now, which is over 49.5 (-210).

Some customers who were online at the time caught the price, or one of the early adjustments. But later in the day I received a number of emails that gently told me that I was looking at the wrong prop, that what I was looking for was the over/under on the first punt. The assumption that I didn’t know what I was doing indicates the greatest value in Super Bowl proposition wagering.

Obviously this price was a rare offering of tremendous value by the sports book. With hundreds of props to put up, a faulty memory as to what the price was last year or outright misjudgment occurs at every sports book. The management isn’t perfect, and the linemakers are far from infallible. And betting into a laughably weak opening line is where the greatest value in Super Bowl props exists.

Now that’s not to suggest that there won’t be value for someone who can isolate a matchup advantage, or who can figure out what a portion of the game plan will be for either team, or who gets first report of an injury that occurs in practice. But the best bets you ever make on Super Bowl props come from being the first to pounce on weaknesses.

Every year I hear from people holding tremendous bets as a result of sitting in a Vegas sports book or logging onto an online book as new proposition wagers are offered. Being quick and spotting the weaknesses in the hundreds of lines that are offered presents a tremendous edge to those who are ready.

If you can’t be first internationally, maybe you can be smart locally. Those who bet with local bookies should pay strict attention to the propositions offered from the guy who they at the local bar. These locals are often unsophisticated and many have just entered or returned to the business due to the opportunity created by legislation by the US government that made things more difficult for online sports books to operate. They may say, “ahh, my guys won’t understand that they have to lay -145 on this, I’ll just make it -115 both ways.” This provides solid wagers and opportunities for arbitrage. Take some time and compare what you’re offered locally with what is offered at Vegas or online sports books.

Mistakes will be made in the next nine days and those who put themselves in a position to take advantage of those mistakes have an excellent chance to profit.