Properly judging a team’s performance using statistics is a key to success this time of year.  Some teams are not as good as their numbers.   Others are better than advertised due to luck, level of competition, unfavorable or favorable matchups, etc.   Most bettors who drive line moves at sportsbooks, especially early in the week, have some statistical backing for their plays.

The late, great, Mike Lee taught me to ignore games against 1-AA competition when compiling statistics, and his business partner Gail still provides statistical data at Friends of Mike Lee Sports.  Knowing how domination of 1-AA opponents can skew results, I had to laugh when I saw NC State referred to as “college football’s best defense” on ESPN’s web site this week.   NC State has played four games, and two were against Murray State and Gardner-Webb.   Back out the 1-AA creampuffs and NCSU allows opponents 5.1 yards per play, which is 44th in the country when only 1-A competition is taken into consideration.  

How do you judge Virgina Tech’s 272-59 rushing advantage over Miami? Is it a sign of life in the trenches for a team that was outrushed by a combined 475-150 in their games against Alabama and Nebraska?   More likely it’s just the advantage of playing in Blacksburg, where strange things happen and a special teams disasters make opponents wilt.

“Meaningless” plays at the end of a game don’t get any more meaningful than the strange doings in the Air Force/San Diego State game.  Air Force, closing a 17.5 point favorite in a game that was as low as -16 and as high as -18.5, led the Aztecs 26-2 before SDSU scored a TD with just over 3 minutes left.  It looked like a half-point cover was in the offing but the Aztecs missed the extra point, still trailing by 18, to the delight of those who had -16 and +18.5.   So the middle was in the air, right?  Not exactly.  SD State scored on a 30-yard TD pass on the games closing play for the 26-14 final.  You really couldn’t make a big case that Air Force deserved the cover, as the Falcons didn’t score an offensive TD and notched only 12 first downs, but benefited from a 6-0 turnover advantage.

Other teams that were -4 or worse in turnovers and lost despite outgaining their opponents include Buffalo (lost to Temple), Maryland (lost to Rutgers), Mississippi State (lost to LSU), Miami-Ohio (lost to Kent State), UNLV (lost to Wyoming), and North Texas State (lost to MTSU).   A lot of big turnover edges occur in mismatches, but most of those games were lined pretty competitively.  Just a ton of mistakes and bad luck influencing those contests.

Turnover beneficiary LSU visits turnover victim Georgia this Saturday in a key SEC matchup.  The Bengal Tigers are fresh off their 4-0 turnover edge in a miracle win at Mississippi State where they suffered a 21-12 first down disadvantage.   Georgia is suffering a 12-3 turnover deficit on the season, turning the ball over exactly 3 times in all 4 of their games.   The Bulldogs are pretty lucky to be 3-1.  So do you figure those patterns continue or is a reversal in order?

All the commentators who think that Tim Tebow should have been out of the game with Florida up 31-7 in the third quarter at Kentucky have short memories.  How did Oklahoma surpass Texas last year despite losing to the Longhorns?  By scoring early, late, and often.  Margin of victory absolutely matters in the polls, and nobody knows that better than Urban Meyer, who is well over 60% to the pointspread in his college head coaching career.  There’s also the small matter of the Heisman Trophy, which Tebow won’t win if he’s being pulled with a mere 24-point lead in the 3rd quarter of conference games.

We’re used to Jim Grobe’s Wake Forest teams playing smart football.  So the running back running the wrong way on first and goal from the 4 in OT, leading to a fumble and a 3-point loss to Boston College was a surprise.   But that wasn’t the only mental mistake by the Deacons.   Wake could possibly have won in regulation if not for consecutive boneheaded plays early in the fourth quarter.   BC was up 7 and on their own 34 facing a 3rd and 33 situation.  On an overthrown ball over the middle that was nowhere close to the first down Wake Forest safety Cyhl Quarles nailed the receiver for a needless and obvious pass interference call.  For good measure Quarles then hovered over the receiver in a menacing pose, which could have drawn another flag.  On the ensuing first down play BC threw downfield for 23 yards when two confused defenders collided, knocking each other down, setting up a BC touchdown a few plays later. 

A near replay of the Colts/Dolphins game of the previous week took place when Fresno State visited Cincinnati.   Frenso won first downs (25-15), rushing (290-57), and time of possession (43:42-16:18) but lost due to some quick strike big plays by their talented opponent. Fresno was in a terrible scheduling situation, off of tough defeats to Wisconsin (in OT) and Boise when they traveled east to take on the high powered Bearcats, and hanging around with UC for the pointspread cover was impressive.    Pat Hill had some questionable teams for a couple of years but despite the three consecutive losses he’s got a good team together this season.  

We’re sitting with a 57%+ pointspread record so far this season on our late phone service, building on our many years of football success.  If you’d like to learn about our program or get on board, call 1-770-649-1078.