I like the under 59 1/2 in tonight’s Florida/South Carolina game.  When he took the South Carolina job, Steve Spurrier knew that to make inroads in the SEC East, the games against Georgia, Tennessee, and Florida would be critical.  And in these big games, knowing that he has the lesser talent, he has consistently looked to slow down the pace of the game.  Two weeks ago in Knoxville his game plan had to go out the window after Tennessee used turnovers (needing very little offense) to get out to a quick 21-0 lead.  Yet even in overtime, that 27-24 loss stayed under the total.

The pattern of his desire to shorten these games is apparent.  In addition to that contest in Knoxville two weeks back, the other Gamecock games against Georgia, Tennessee, and Florida have seen total points of 32, 31, 52, 18, 55, 33, and 28 scored.  The Gamecocks were lit up by the Arkansas running attack for over 500 yards last week but match up much better here, as Florida lacks a power running game, which is something that can exploit the fast, but undersized Gamecock D.

Florida may have trouble passing effectively today, as South Carolina allows a miniscule 5.4 yards per pass attempt against Division 1A opponents.   Florida’s interior running is mostly done by QB Tim Tebow, but Tebow is still a bit banged up by his shoulder injury, although Vanderbilt did little to add to his physical problems with their no-show last week.

South Carolina’s defensive coordinator Tyrone Nix certainly has the ear of his defense after last week’s disaster, and his defensive backfield is healthier than expected, as it looks like the Gamecocks will have the services of a couple of defensive backs who were listed as questionable earlier in the week.

Since Blake Mitchell returned to Steve Spurrier’s good graces six quarters ago, his effectiveness has enabled USC to chew up clock with their offense. They notched 31 first downs at Tennessee and 29 first downs at Arkansas.  That kind of chain moving is a big part of the game plan here, which is to avoid a shootout with the Gators.

This number is very high after all the offense in the games that these teams participated in last week.  With the desire of South Carolina to limit the number of plays in this game, try to stay close, and win it late, under 59 1/2 seems like a solid play on a chilly night in Columbia.