Real World Sports

Prime Time Pointspread Previews: Big East vs. Big 12

Big East teams face Big 12 teams in made-for-TV matchups on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday night.  The Big 12 appears to have a higher class of football this season, as Connecticut is the only Big East team that has covered a pointspread, while the Big 12 is rolling.

Really, if you believe in conference pointspread results being predictive, there’s only one way to go in games between a conference that is 1-13 against the spread vs. one that is 18-4-1 to the line.

Of course, if you believe that conference results are predictive, you took a 2-8 pointspread bath last Saturday with the Pac Ten, which previously was 7-2 to the number.

Remember the time when there was no such thing as Wednesday night football?  How about more recently, when at least they had the decency to wait until after the baseball season to play on Wednesdays?  Let’s move on to these prime time affairs.

Wednesday Night: Kansas State vs. Louisville

Beautiful night in Derby City, with clear skies, light winds, and a temperature dropping from the 70’s to the 60’s during the ballgame.  Kansas State is favored by 4, with a total of 56.

Louisville failed the only challenge that either one of these two teams has had, losing their opener to Kentucky 27-2.  Played on this field, that game was relatively evenly played except for a 5-1 turnover disadvantage against the Cards.  The ‘ville bounced back with a win over 1-AA Tennessee Tech (whoop-de-doo).   Hunter Cantwell was supposed to be the best backup QB in America the past couple of years, but he tossed 3 INT’s and averaged a piddling 3.5 yards per pass attempt vs. Kentucky.  At 6-8, rangy WR Josh Chichester is an inviting target.

Tough to tell what Kansas State brings to the table, as home wins over North Texas and 1-AA Montana State tell us next to nothing.   Obviously, a team that gave up over 49 points per game in a 4-game losing streak to conclude last season needs to shore up their D.  And Prince is relying on some junior college transfers to do just that.

Important game for the coaches involved, as neither Ron Prince nor Steve Kragthorpe are on the verge of winning any popularity contests in their hometowns, and there’s nothing like a prime time loss to trigger “this coach is in trouble” speculation these days.  Prince has won only twice on the road in his two years at KSU.  Louisville had a 20-game home winning streak snapped during Kragthrope’s initial campaign last year, and the Cards have lost three of their last six at home.

Thursday Night: West Virginia at Colorado

West Virginia is a 3-point favorite and the total is 56. Former Air Force assistant Bill Stewart spoke fondly this week of his time spent in Colorado.  An unpopular choice among some WVU boosters, Stewart probably looks back fondly on the anonymity he enjoyed as Fisher Deberry’s defensive line coach in the early ’90’s.

Out of the rubble of the East Carolina loss, look for Stewart to junk the “pass more” approach that led to Pat White completing five TD passes against Villanova. Expect Noel Devine’s workload to be doubled to 20 or so carries tonight, and for WVU to pick up the pace, as they’ve had only 108 offensive snaps in their two games.   It looks like a back to basics night for the Mountaineers.

Colorado is 2-0 after opening with a win over Colorado State and narrowly escaping Eastern Washington, coming back from 17 down to beat the solid 1-AA club. Colorado is allowing less than 2.5 yards per rush attempt, but Colorado State in it’s current state and EWU don’t exactly prepare you for West Virginia’s running game.  CU rarely sees a run-oriented spread attack and it is something that is difficult to replicate in practice, even with the extra days to prepare. Coach’s son QB Cody Hawkins operates the Buff no-huddle offense for his dad Dan and this is the first real test for a player expected to be improved.  Last year’s leading tackler for WVU, LB Reed Williams (both shoulders), will play for the first time this year.

Friday Night: Baylor at Connecticut

You can throw out the record book when these two ancient rivals meet.   Actually, there is no record book, as this is the first meeting between the schools.  Each won in blowout fashion last weekend, but the results must be discounted as they each beat up on poor teams made even more pathetic by their distractions.

Baylor crushed Washington State (rushing yardage 426-77) but Wazzou has injuries, veterans dissatisfied with the new coach, young players all over the field, and had to travel in early to play on Friday night to beat Hurricane Ike.   Connecticut smashed a disheartened Virginia team (rushing yardage 382-31) that played as though they were on strike due to the surprise suspension of their quarterback.

In the other games played by these two against 1-A opponents, they both struggled mightily offensively.  Baylor garnered only 250 yards or offense and had 5 turnovers in a home wipeout at the hands of Wake Forest.  UConn couldn’t score a TD in regulation in a dull 12-9 overtime win at Temple.

Due to the laydowns by their opponents last week it is tough to see what these two bring to the table.   But Baylor may be improved under new coach Art Briles, and the line move down from the the opener of 14 to 12 makes some sense.