Mid-50’s and light winds in Blacksburg tonight, where Virginia Tech is a 15.5-point home favorite against North Carolina, with a total of 43.5.  Tech was favored by as much as 17 earlier in the week.  So why is this line going down?  Bettors probably are noticing that UNC was a 3.5 point favorite in their close loss to Tech at home last year, and the fact that they have the better defense. 

Better defense?  Yep, the better defense is a big underdog in this one, as North Carolina allows 16 points per game on 267 yards, while Virginia Tech permits 19 points and 317 yards per game.  A few weeks ago you could have made a case that facing Alabama and Nebraska in non-conference games would help Virginia Tech offset a statistical edge (UNC played a bland non-conference schedule), but with those offenses struggling some, maybe the Tar Heels really do have the better defense.

North Carolina is fresh off a big blown lead a week ago tonight, and it will be interesting to see how they bounce back from that dispiriting loss.   Carolina was supposed to take a big step up in Butch Davis’ third year at the helm in Chapel Hill.  But the influx of talent that supposedly has been signed the past three Februarys apparently has not included many skill position players.   The Tar Heels lost their productive wide receivers to the NFL and as a result, QB TJ Yates is struggling mightily.  Last season was a fairly productive one for Yates, who threw for 8.7 yards per pass with 11 TD passes and only 4 interceptions in an injury-shortened season.  This year has been a far different story for Yates, averaging 5.6 yards per pass attempt, 7 TD passes and 8 INT’s.   But his coaches continue to support Yates, and his backups have been even worse, with no TD passes and 4 interceptions in just 19 combined attempts.  Opponents can stack the line and dare the Heels to throw. 

Surprisingly, Virginia Tech’s strength is their offense.  While tonight’s opposing QB has regressed, Virginia Tech’s Tyrod Taylor has improved year-to-year as much as any QB in memory.  After a disastrous 2008 that saw Taylor pass for only 6.0 yards per attempt, with only 2 TD passes and 7 interceptions, 2009 has been a sea change for the junior.  Taylor leads the nation with 9.5 yards per pass attempt, and he has 15 TD passes and only 3 interceptions.   The defense is solid, but not at the level of some past Hokie outfits.   Tech has a five-day rest edge, as they were off last week while UNC choked away their Thursday nighter against the Seminoles.

Since North Carolina was favored by 3.5 in their home game against the Hokies last September, this line seems high.  But UNC has been a double digit dog against Virginia Tech in each other year since the Gobblers joined the conference in 2004.  The past two visits to Blacksburg have seen UNC getting 19.5 points in 2007 and 24 points in 2005.  So while the line is hefty compared to last year, by other historical measurements, it is reasonable.   

Taking away series history, this line seems high here considering UNC’s sound defense.  And teams that disappoint at home frequently bounce back strong as a road dog the next week.  But the complete reversal of form for these two QB’s from last year to this season is jarring.   And while Virginia Tech doesn’t create the points out of thin air that they used to, how many times have we seen the Hokies break open a close game with a special teams or defensive return for a TD?