If you’re a Michigan or Georgia Tech fan tearing your hair out over the fact that your schools are tied for the national lead in fumbles, you should relax.  The rash of turnovers for your clubs was to be expected, despite the adage that turnovers are difficult to project.

“You can’t predict turnovers” is an old, and largely accurate football forecasting maxim. It is especially true for the NFL, with the league’s relative balance.  It is less true in college, where faster, stronger, more athletic teams are likely to force turnovers from their outmanned opponents.

Interceptions are not completely random.  Better, more careful quarterbacks, enjoying superior protection, are going to throw fewer interceptions than inexperienced gunslingers making poor decisions behind shaky offensive lines.

Fumbles are pretty random in the NFL.  And become more random in college football over the course of the season. But in early season college football it isn’t always a surprise to see which teams are frequently fumbling. They’re the teams that have changed offensive systems.

Tying for the national lead in fumbles, Georgia Tech and Michigan have each put the ball on the turf 11 times, with Michigan losing 6 of the 11 fumbes, and Georgia Tech turning it over with 7 of their 11 drops.

The rash of turnovers is really no surprise. Both schools have brought in accomplished coaches who have radically changed the offensive system in use.   At Michigan they’ve gone to the spread option of Rich Rodriguez, while Georgia Tech has instituted the triple option of Paul Johnson.

The offenses demand tremendous precision from the quarterback and running backs, requiring that the quarterbacks make split-second reads before deciding to hand off, pitch, or run themselves. They take more than a little getting used to.

There are four other teams that have already lost six fumbles or more this season.  Army has the same coaches, but has gone to an option offense for the first time in a decade.  Auburn also has a steep learning curve, with spread guru Tony Franklin brought in as offensive coordinator.  Bowling Green and Kent State also have new offensive coordinators, though they were promoted from within.

There are five teams that have played three games without losing a fumble.  Virginia Tech, Central Michigan, UNLV, TCU, and Oklahoma all have something in common.  They have both the same head coach and the same offensive coordinator as last season.  The players were familiar with the offenses at each of those schools, and in combination with good luck, the result has been no lost fumbles.

Georgia Tech’s 20-17 loss at Virginia Tech would have been a different result had the Jackets not committed all three of the game’s turnovers.  And Michigan’s six turnovers keyed their 35-17 loss at Notre Dame.

This is not unlike what Johnson and Rodriguez experienced at their previous coaching stops.  In 2002, his first year at Navy, Johnson’s 2-10 team won the turnover battle by a combined 7-0 in their two wins over SMU and Navy, while their ten losses saw the Middies suffer a horrific 35-14 turnover disadvantage. But that difficult year built the foundation for five consecutive bowl appearances.

The learning curve was similar at West Virginia.  in 2001 Rodriguez took over a bowl team that returned 14 starters and blew up the offense, resulting in a 3-8 initial campaign.  The Mountaineers enjoyed a 13-2 turnover edge in their trio of wins (over two bad MAC teams and  an 80-7 demolition of Rutgers), but suffered a 30-11 turnover disadvantage in their eight losses.  Just like Navy, West Virginia has bowled every year since.

Until their players become used to their offenses (and players better suited to run those offenses are recruited to campus), look for Michigan and Georgia Tech to struggle.  But once they get their players to buy-in and acclimate to their offensive schemes, watch out for Michigan and Georgia Tech, led by these innovative, proven coaches.