Football handicapping is quite a puzzle early in the season.  You look at last season’s numbers, see how much of the cast of players and coaches that created those numbers are returning, and try to project what that combination will mean early in the season.

We’re fortunate to have been solving the puzzle successfully more often than not, as my Strategic Sports Publishing handicapping service is 12-2 (85.7%) against the pointspread in NFL and college combined, as documented by Ruth Glasgow’s The Sports Monitor.  If you’d like more information call 1-770-649-1078.

Most years by week 4 in college football we’re looking at a lot of statistical averages.  But it would be foolish to handicap using statistical averages in college football right now. 64 games have pitted 1-A teams have against outmanned 1-AA opponents rendering averages all but unusable.  51 of the 65 BCS conference teams play 1-AA teams this year, with most of those games having taken place. That renders statistical averages virtually useless.

Florida State is the #1 yardage defense in college football right now, allowing opponents a miniscule 170 yards per game.  But the Seminoles have played a pair of 1-AA opponents, Chattanooga and Western Carolina. Now Florida State may be an improved team, but there are a whole lot of 1-A teams that can shut down 1-AA teams.

In fact, when you look into FSU’s games, they aren’t even the #1 yardage defense that has played Chattanooga, as Oklahoma held the Mocs to 36 total yards, while Chattanooga gained 164 yards in Tallahassee.

It is also important to realize that there is a huge, huge difference in quality between these teams.  Assuming the Sagarin ratings are reasonably accurate, 1-AA teams that play 1-A teams have a 47+ point range in quality, from App State (68.16) to Texas Southern (20.59) .

Purdue 42-10 beat Northern Colorado thanks to some blocked punts, winning yardage in that game 402-338. San Diego State lost to Cal Poly-SLO 29-27, getting outgained 483-379.   Obviously Purdue had more to be pleased about didn’t they?   Maybe.  What about the fact that Cal Poly (60.24 Sagarin) is 3 TD’s better than Northern Colorado (40.28).

The handicapping puzzle is hard enough without trying to weigh those 1-AA stats generated in games where you have no idea how motivated either teams was.  A typical 1-A team has so much more talent that their 1-AA opponent that it renders their domination nearly meaningless.

Obviously you shouldn’t be using statistical averages in your handicapping.  So what’s the answer?

You don’t want to hear this, but the answer is to avoid the readily available statistical averages and dig deep into box scores from when the team you’re analyzing played decent competition.  Then when you see a strength you want to back or a weakness to exploit you go and read up on the team to see if there was something to explain away the strength or weakness.

Was a run-stuffing performance due to injuries on the opponent’s offensive line?   Was an ugly final score due to some unfortunate turnovers or special teams miscues that are likely to be corrected?  There’s a lot to learn, and then a lot of work trying to apply it to what will happen this coming weekend.

Statistical averages become more meaningful as the season progresses, and the 1-AA opponents are averaged out.  But you should tread extraordinarily lightly with statistical averages at this point and time in college football.

Good luck this weekend.  As was mentioned earlier, if you’re interested in finding out more about my Strategic Sports Publishing handicapping service call 1-770-649-1078.  Ask for me, Kevin O’Neill.

Good luck this weekend, and be careful.