Oklahoma and Florida meet in Miami for the BCS Championship, and facts and figures are flying around about these teams.  The different styles of ball that these teams play makes it a fascinating matchup.  But those different styles mean that you’re crazy if you use any raw numbers to analyze this game statistically.

Each team played 13 games. Florida ran 800 offensive plays this year.  Oklahoma ran 1036 plays.  So Oklahoma’s raw yardage numbers should be nearly 30% greater than Florida’s.  This game is the poster child for the need for “yards per” analysis.  236 more plays for OU shows why using yards per play, yards per rush, and yards per pass is much more accurate from a predictive standpoint than using raw yardage numbers.

The number of plays for each team is a direct result of the style of ball played in their conferences.  The SEC is much more defensive-minded and didn’t have much in the way of quarterbacking this season.  The Big 12 South was the complete opposite.  Interestingly, the #1 defensive team in the Big 12 statistically was Texas.  They allowed 339 yards per game in conference play.  That would have made them the 12th best defense statistically in the SEC.  Not because the ‘Horns weren’t any good on defense, but because the style of play in their conference led to more plays, more passing, less rushing, and therefore more yardage. You see the pitfalls of using raw stats?

There’s more.  Florida held 12 of 13 opponents to 21 points or less.   Their last 7 opponents all scored fewer than 20 points. All of Oklahoma’s last 8 opponents scored 21 or more.  But on the other side of the ball Oklahoma’s lowest yardage output was 435 yards whle Florida’s offense failed to reach that mark in 6 of their 13 games.

Raw numbers make it appear that Oklahoma’s offense is clearly superior to Florida’s attack, while Florida’s defense is clearly better than Oklahoma’s D.  While that may prove to be the case, the raw numbers are mainly the result of having so many more plays (both offensive and defensive) in Oklahoma games, and facing opponents that threw the ball a lot more often.

One figure is set in stone however, and it has had Sooner and Gator backers smiling all fall.  These two have combined for a 22-3-1 pointspread mark this season.

Enjoy the game tonight.