NFL Notes: Yardage Margins, Pointspread Results
Let’s take a look at some things going on in the NFL.
The hapless Rams have been outgained by 763 yards in their first three games. If they kept that up (which they won’t, of course), they’d be outgained by 2.31 miles over the course of the season. Only the Browns being 10 yards worse per game offensively (194 yards per contest) keeps the Rams from being last in both total offense and total defense.
Not a lot of fluke results in pro football so far this year. 47 NFL games have been played, and 42 of them have been won by the team with more total yards. Marc Lawrence mentioned that stat to me on his radio show this week. Victor King pointed out that although NFL favorites are 27-18-2 this far on the season, double digit dogs are 5-0, so single digit favorites are a stout 27-13-2. Considering that the bulk of my NFL plays are single digit dogs, I’m certainly pleased to be 5-1 in the NFL. Obviously Marc and Victor do a lot of good statistical research on that program, which I appear on for the first 20 minutes or so each week.
Though it’s early, 9-7 looks good for a wild card berth in the AFC, but likely won’t cut it in the NFC. Why? 10 of the 16 multiple win teams in the NFL reside in the NFL, while 4 of the 6 winless teams play in the AFC.
Faced with those numbers, it won’t surprise you to learn that the NFC is 7-3 against the spread vs. the AFC, with five of those seven covers by double digits against the spread.
San Diego got some cheap points early in their 48-29 Monday night win over the Jets and only won yardage 357-308. But don’t be fooled into thinking that the game was close. When the Chargers scored on their opening drive of the second half to take a 38-14 lead they were outgaining the Jets 245-63. The rest of the game meant nothing.
