NFL Betting Notes: Figures Can Lie, So Can Deion’s Friends, NFL Results Not Kind to Local Bookies
Cowboys Offensive But Not Over: Add up the yards per play offensively and the yards per play allowed defensively of NFL teams and nobody can come close to the total generated by the Dallas Cowboys. The Cowboys are gaining 6.7 yards per play, second only to the Colts (a sick 7.1). Dallas is allowing 6.2 yards per play, which is #30 in the league. So with all this offense, and poor defense, how is it that the Cowboys last two games have gone under by 20 points and 16 points? Offenses aren’t very efficient in Cowboys games. Dallas’ O requires 16.7 yards to gain a point, which indicates they are spinning their wheels a good bit. But the Cowboys D gives up points begrudgingly, requiring opponents to go a full 19 yards to gain a point, which is 7th best in the league. So there’s a ton of yards in Dallas games, but that offensive production isn’t being turned into points.
The “Worldwide Wes” of the NFL? The top two wide receivers in college football’s Big 12 conference last season were Texas Tech’s Michael Crabtree and Oklahoma State’s Dez Bryant. Bryant was suspended for the season this week due to some questions about hospitality provided to him by Deion Sanders. Crabtree finally signed this week with the 49ers after an ill-advised holdout, but not without a potential tampering charge filed by the Niners against the Jets. NFL Network commentator Deion Sanders fingerprints are all over both situations. Why is Deion involved with the decisions of the clients of his former agent, Eugene Parker? Good question, but something was likely in it for Deion. Washington Redskins owner Daniel Snyder, who paid Sanders over $8 million of a year of half-hearted effort, is among those who will attest that Deion loves his money. So is Deion feeding Parker clients, serving as the “Worldwide Wes” of the NFL? Sanders also has a company that preps collegians for the draft called Prime U.
Very Good vs. Very Bad: 4 of 14 NFL games this weekend have double-digit pointspreads. Two NFC East powers are favored by more than two TD’s, with the Eagles (over the Bucs), and the Giants (over the Raiders) favored by 15 points each. The lines sure appear justified if the favorites care, as the Eagles and Giants both gain 1.3 yards per play more than their opponents, while the Bucs and Raiders each are outgained by 1.4 yards per play.
The NFL See-Saw: It’s tough to be consistently good every single week, or consistently bad every week. The Eagles, Giants, and Steelers are the only teams to outgain all of their opponents this season. The Bucs and Rams are the only teams to be outgained by everyone. Both are being outgained by over 100 yards per game on the season.
Pity Missouri: I had a conversation with a buddy of mine who is a St. Louis Cardinals fan about how painful the Thursday night loss must have been for him. He told me it was awful, and his wife was even more upset than he was. Especially with the shutout heading into the fourth quarter. What? Yup, he was talking Missouri Tigers, and I was talking St. Louis Cardinals, and they were both sources of pain for Show-Me-Staters on Thursday night. And that’s hardly the worst of it, as Missouri’s NFL entrants, the Rams and Chiefs are both 0-4. They aren’t much better for bettors, a combined 1-7 against the spread, with the Rams narrow loss at Washington being the only cover for Missourians.
Bookies Crushed in the NFL Last Two Weeks: A local Atlanta bookie today told me that he lost as much last weekend as he’s ever lost this early in the year. All the popular teams he needed to stumble did well on Saturday, and then Sunday was a nightmare. Favre’s Vikings and the over on Monday night hardly stemmed the tide. Another was telling a similar tale, that the past couple of weeks have been very rough for him. NFL favorites are off to a good start so far this season, and local bookies are unlikely to have a lot of dog action to balance them off. When favorites do well, locals often get crushed.
Pats D Getting Healthier? Looks like Jerrod Mayo might play for the Patriots in Denver on Sunday. With so much focus on Brady’s return, Mayo’s injury in week 1 has been overlooked. The Patriots defense is not deep, and the second-yard linebacker out of Tennessee may be New England’s most important defender.
