Underdogs went 10-3 last weekend in the NFL, with a miracle dog cover by the Chiefs and popular favorites Saints and Patriots failing to cover by a point each.  Only the Steelers, Falcons, and Seahawks (barely) covered as favorites, and 7 underdogs won outright.  It was a big underdog week.

So can we finally, once-and-for-all dismiss the whining of the Las Vegas bookmakers about the surge of favorites two weeks ago?   Yes, I know favorites went 9-3-1 that weekend.  Yes, I know a lot of people hit parlay cards.   But in the other three weekends in the past month the favorites have combined to go 13-27. 

By one count, favorites are now 64-63-1 on the season, meaning a $110/$100 bet on every favorite would have a bettor down $530.  So much for the “Year of the Favorite”.

Monday night’s game was pretty strange. Denver dominated the first half from the line of scrimmage, but they trailed 7-3.   The Steelers had the one big play of the half with an interception return for a TD from midfield.  The Broncos had a 183-54 yardage edge at halftime.  Steelers won yardage in the second half, 321-59, winning in blowout fashion.   How can two solid, well-coached team each throw in such a clunker of a half at the same exact time that the opponent is performing so well?   

In the two prime time games this week, Kyle Orton and Jay Cutler, the two principals in the most celebrated QB trade of the summer, combined to throw 0 TD passes and 8 interceptions.  Since their bye week the Bears are 1-4 and Cutler as 6 TD passes and 12 interceptions. 

A lot of people will tell you that yards per play is the most important stat in football.  No real disagreement here.  So tell me how the ascendant Bengals are permitting opponents to outgain them on a yards per play basis (gaining 5.5 yards per play and allowing 5.6) while the disappointing Packers are outgaining opponents by almost a yard-and-a-half per play (6.3-4.9)? 

The Packers are one bizarre team, you would think that outgaining opponents by almost a yard-and-a-half per play while being #2 in the league in turnover margin would have them sitting at 7-1 or 6-2.  Nope, they’re 4-4 straight up and against the spread.

If you like to bet good teams as big underdogs, the 6-2 Bengals are a 7-point dog at Pittsburgh.

If you like to fade bad teams as big favorites, the 2-6 Titans are a 7-point favorite hosting the Bills.

I’m not saying that you shouldn’t be annoyed by the hype for the Patriots/Colts Sunday night game, but the only other contest between likely playoff teams is the Bengals/Steelers game.   The loser of the Chargers/Eagles game will be 5-4 and the playoffs may be difficult to make.

Good luck this weekend.