Real World Sports

NFL Betting Notes: Broncos Defensive Metamorphosis Rewards Bettors

How bad was Denver’s defense last season?   They were near the bottom of nearly every important defensive category.  And I’m told that when then-coach Mike Shanahan’s defensive staff evaluated their roster after the season, they found they had virtually no players that would be of interest to other teams.  So it’s pretty remarkable that it is the Bronco D that has led the team to a 5-0 start both straight up and against the spread.  

The allowances of Denver’s D have gone from 28 points per game to 9, 375 yards to 253, and 6.1 yards per play to 4.2 (with dramatic improvement in both run defense and pass defense).  And the Broncos D is highly efficient as well.  Last season Denver opponents had to gain only 13.4 yards to score a point.   This season the opposition has to gain over 28 yards to notch one measly point.   The offensively armed Bengals, Cowboys, and Patriots have been on the schedule already and only New England has scored more than 10 points against the Broncos this year, notching 17 yet losing in overtime.

Who deserves the credit?   New head coach Josh McDaniels was New England’s offensive coordinator last season.   And the Broncos offense is doing what it needs to do, but not a ton more than that.  The real hero of this transformation is defensive coordinator Mike Nolan, who just couldn’t catch a break as 49ers head coach the past few years.

Perfect and Imperfect:  Marc Lawrence has always trumpeted the “In the Stats” approach, and looks for overvalued and undervalued teams by comparing their straight up record with how many times they’ve outscored their opponents.   The Redskins have won yardage in 3 of their 5 games against their schedule, but it isn’t paying off on the scoreboard.   The Vikes are 5-0 and the 49ers are 4-1 but both have been outgained by 3 of their 5 opponents. The Giants, Steelers, and Eagles have outgained all of their opponents so far.   Of all the hideous teams in the NFL, only the Bucs have now been outgained in every game.  Some football people really like young QB Josh Johnson, who was coached at the University of San Diego by Jim Harbaugh.  

Hall of Fame Bust On Hold: It’s great to have confidence in your defense, Rex Ryan, but that’s putrid reasoning behind the indefensible decision to sit on your timeouts in a circumstance where it is obvious you should be using them.  The Jets seem to specialize in coaches who exercise poor clock management.   Herm Edwards was the worst.  And why weren’t Ryan’s assistants imploring him to manage the end of the game better?  Or is dissent not something that would be welcome in Rex’s world?  And no, that isn’t sour grapes, Miami actually capped off our winning weekend by completing a 2-team teaser.

Massive Pointspreads:  I never thought I’d see a week in the NFL where there could be three 14-point spreads.  But that may be the case this week.   There are also three lines in the 9 to 9.5 range.  Might we see 6 double-digit underdogs in the NFL?  Probably not, as the public money that steams up favorites doesn’t seem to be in effect this season.