Late Night Pointspread Preview
The following preview is from my newsletter, The Maximum Profit Football Preview. To subscribe, call 770-649-1078.Following a terrific season, but thinking he’s peaked with what he can accomplish with the program, the coach leaves his established home for a better paying job. An overmatched assistant takes over as head man, and the losses mount. Sure, this discussion could be about West Virginia, but it is about Hawaii, wiped out by their only two 1-A opponents thus far. Getting blasted at Florida is understandable. Losing 45-7 at Oregon State (a team that replaced their entire front 7 on defense) on yardage of 485-211? Not so much. Even the 1-AA home game in between, a 35-17 win over Weber State, was blasé. You may have read that Tyler Graunke, the UH quarterback, is supposed to be back in the lineup, but against the vulnerable defense of Oregon State he threw 27 passes at 4.4 yards per attempt with two interceptions. Nothing to be scared about. This team lost not only head coach June Jones, but QB Colt Brennan and a lot of other good players as well, as they returned only 9 starters. They’re a shadow of what they were under Jones and the fan support is suffering, as there was a lot of controversy over Jones’ departure and the culpability of the university administration and the athletic department leadership in not keeping him around. And in this game they’re taking on a team that’s better than many realize. San Jose State’s Dick Tomey has done a fine job at a school that was considering dropping the sport within the past decade. In a loss to Stanford on Saturday night, Cal transfer Kyle Reed completed 23 of 26 passes, but protection was a major issue, as the Spartans allowed him to be sacked six times in the second half. There were some instances where he should have thrown the ball away. But San Jose State can compete against a team below the BCS level of talent (outrushed San Diego State 293-6). And their 23-10 loss to Stanford was 16-10 and the Spartans had the ball at midfield with a couple of minutes left. Stanford made the strange decision (first and goal from the 9 with less than a minute left and no timeouts for SJSU) to punch in a TD to make the margin look more significant at 23-10. Stanford isn’t that bad, and at this point a significantly better team than this depleted Hawaii club, something that is obvious when you compare their results against Oregon State. Stanford outplayed Oregon State on the line of scrimmage, with a 210-86 rushing edge. That same OSU team outrushed this Hawaii team 217-57. Of course, those stats were all from games played on the mainland, and UH has exhibited a big home field edge over the years. But even with better talent they are only 2-4 against the spread in thier last six outings as a home favorite. Hawaii had a week off, but this coaching matchup of Tomey against Greg McMakin is men vs. boys. There will definitely be support for Hawii in the betting markets by those who are used to playing Hawaii at home and have trouble realizing that these two teams are completely different from the ones that resulted in a 42-35 road win at Spartan Stadium last season. Take the points and look for the outright upset. San Jose State by 4.
