Real World Sports

Kevin O’Neill’s Top 25: No Favre, No Kiffin, Just 25 NFL & College Football Betting Observations

Here’s a look around the football wagering world as we head into the opening week of college action.  No mentions of anyone named Favre or Kiffin, so come on in.

  1. The NFL is playing 16 exhibition games this weekend, largely by guys who will hit the waiver wire over the weekend.  Meaningful players will be rested.  Fans will pay full season prices. 
  2. In 15 of those 16 games, the line is 4 points or less.   Lone exception? The Jaguars are favored by 6 over the Redskins after Washington announced that Daniel Snyder would be playing QB for the ’skins.  
  3. Welcome to “I told you so” time for some political types in Delaware, who are dusting off a 6-year old report that projected single-game sports betting would not gain legal approval. 
  4. This week word came that Delaware parlays must be three-teams or more, just like it was for their three-month foray into sports betting back in 2006.
  5. Phil Fulmer wants to coach again.  But only at a place that’s committed to winning championships.  Fulmer told this to his CBS College colleague Tony Barnhart.  Barnhart kept a straight face for the sake of their working relationship. 
  6. Underachieving former powers usually underperform to the pointspread.  Surprisingly Tennessee actually went 6-6 against the spread last year, a season where they went 5-7 straight up.  Fulmer’s Vols actually went 16-9-2 to the number the  two years before that.  Those numbers startled me.  I guess I just picked my spots well going against him. 
  7. Big 10 types are always playing the “disrespect” card, but they seem to disrespect themselves with their opening week scheduling.  Four Big 10 outfits play 1-AA teams and the rest are all favored by 7 or more.  Minnesota at Syracuse and Illinois’s neutral site affair with Missouri are the only games with lines in the single digits.  Everyone else is a double digit home favorite.
  8. The SEC has a surprisingly tough opening week, with half of their teams playing away from home, including road games South Carolina at NC State, Georgia at Oklahoma State, LSU at Washington (looked tough when it was scheduled), and Alabama taking on Virginia Tech in Atlanta. 
  9. I like TJ Simers of the LA Times, and not just because he doesn’t like Rick Neuheisel either. “It’s usually a waste of time listening to anything Rick Neuheisel has to say…” the column begins.  And not a lot of newspapermen would ask “Why do you hate Mitch Mustain?” to open Pete Carroll’s press conference.   
  10. The up, up, and away betting action on Oklahoma is due to more than just the Sooners’ Obama-like transcendence, BYU has a lot of guys nicked up and playing hurt.
  11. The up, up, and away betting action on Cal is due to more than just revenge.  Maryland is not a seasoned club. 58 of their 85 scholarship players are redshirt sophomores or younger.
  12. The up, up, and away betting action on UTEP is due to more than just the season-ending injury to Buffalo RB James Starks (1300+ rushing yards in ‘08).  Buffalo enjoyed monumental good fortune, outgaining only 4 of their 13 opponents yet winning the MAC thanks to a 34-14 turnover advantage.
  13. The up, up, and away betting action on NC State is due to more than just the enormous QB edge that the Wolfpack enjoy in the game.  South Carolina has two starting defensive linemen lost to suspension.
  14. Laying 110?  How about losing 110?   You can’t research Maryland football without being told ad nauseum about Ralph Friedgen’s weight loss.   The Fridge started at 401 and is creeping down to the low 290’s.   And the loss is non-surgical.   Good for him.
  15. Levi Brown was Coach Dave Clawson’s backup QB at Richmond in 2005-06.  Thursday night they face each other as Brown, a star QB for Troy, provides the opposition for Clawson’s first game as Bowling Green head coach.  No real edge in that information, just a strange coincidence.
  16. Remember when the world would stop for the titanic Miami/Florida State matchup?   Now it’s simply a game between two clubs who are a combined 38-33 against 1-A opponents the last three years.
  17. Another sign of the decline of the ACC is the fact that two-time defending champ Virginia Tech, with 15 returning starters, is an underdog by nearly a TD to an Alabama team returning only four offensive starters.
  18. Since Navy hired Paul Johnson away from Georgia Southern, Army’s been vanquished by their hated rival 7 straight times by a combined 274-71.  If you can’t beat ‘em, why not join ‘em?   Army has hired the most innovative run-based coach in 1-AA football in Cal Poly’s Rich Ellerson, who has significant family ties to West Point.
  19. This week’s college card has pretty even pointspread distribution.   11 games have lines of 6.5 or less.   9 games are lined between 7 and 13.5, 12 contests have spreads from 14 to 20.5, and 8 games are lined at 21+.
  20. The biggest spread of the week is Texas -41.5 over Louisiana-Monroe.  Mack Brown used to take the air out of the ball in second halves of blowouts, but you can’t do that if you’re poll watching.   The Longhorns went 5-1 against the spread when favored by 24+ last year.
  21. Oklahoma State’s QB Zac Robinson was reported out of the Georgia game by a blogger on Wednesday afternoon.   The rumor was vehemently denied by Cowboy types, but that didn’t stop some sports books from taking the game off the board until things got cleared up.
  22. Former staffing pointspread ramifications as Utah hosts Utah State on Thursday night. You’ve got to wonder if the Utes will have any inclination to run the score up on their former defensive coordinator Gary Andersen (not the former kicker, not the former football handicapper).  USU is a “big dog with more returning starters” play, as the Aggies have 17 starters back to only 11 for the Utes, which is probably why the line has been creeping down just a smidge.
  23. Safe to say that no Michigan coach has ever had a more important game against a MAC opponent than Rich Rodriguez has against Western Michigan Saturday.   This team knows that they have the fate of their coach in their hands.   How will they react?
  24. It’s not too late to subscribe to The Maximum Profit Football Weekly newsletter.   Five thoroughly researched selections are in this week’s edition and then it’ll be 10 plays a week (a mix of college and pro) until December.  Then every college bowl and NFL playoff game written up. Additional bonus information throughout the week.  And you can get it for just over $6 an issue. Call 770-649-1078 to subscribe. 
  25. It’s also not too late to get our Maximum Profit Football Annual with the “go with” teams, the “go against” outfits, and the interview with offshore sportsbook authority www.Oddswiz.com who has offered online analysis of the offshore sports book industry since 1994.   And by the way, using those “go with” and “go against” teams in the way suggested by our “Full Season Value Strategy” left readers with a 40-21 (65.5%) pointspread record for the 2009 college and NFL season.   Visit www.FootballAnnual.com for your free copy.

Good luck and be careful.