Real World Sports

Early Pointspreads Lead To Massive Line Moves

The Las Vegas Hilton puts up future college football lines that they term “Games of the Year.”   That leads to some pretty strong differentials in the line from the preseason until the game actually occurs, but a couple of games this week are notable in how quickly the betting markets have adjusted to how unimpressive Ohio State and Notre Dame have been thus far.

USC was favored by 4.5 over Ohio State two weeks ago at the Hilton.  Now with Beanie Wells uncertain status, Ohio State’s clunker last week against Ohio University, and a massive one-way public opinion that the Trojans are poised for a blowout, that line is 11.5 and even higher.

Notre Dame was favored by -7 over Michigan in the early wagering at the Hilton.  Even though Michigan is now 1-1, and has failed to cover either of their first two games, Michigan is now a 2-point favorite.  Just think how big a difference there would have been if Michigan had impressed up to this point.

Bettors are sour on Notre Dame due to the Irish’s poor performance in their win over San Diego State.   1-AA Cal Poly the week before gained 6.7 yards per play (and over 5.0 yards per rush) in their 29-27 win over the Aztecs.   In comparison, the box score of the 21-13 Irish victory over San Diego State last Saturday was pretty unimpressive, as Notre Dame could manage only 5.0 yards per play and 3.1 yards per rush against a banged up Aztec defense.

Forward-thinking Nevadans can get a real edge with these  “Games of the Year”, which are still posted on a weekly basis every Monday at the Las Vegas Hilton.