College Football Betting Notes: Sloppy Conference Play Underwhelms
by Kevin O’Neill
There was a lot of bad football last Saturday, sloppy games full of turnovers. Sluggish offenses were the rule, crisp offenses the exception. As a result it was a big week for unders. By one count, discounting pushes, there were 19 unders and 31 overs. Your mileage, of course, may vary due to line moves. The BCS conferences created all of the profit for under players, with the SEC and Big 10 leading the way with all 9 conference games from those two leagues going under the total, with most of them not even being close.
But while under players profited overall, if your card included the San Jose State/Fresno State game under the total, avert your eyes. Final minute histrionics are going to happen with great frequency, but the way San Jose State pushed the closing number of +20 and put their game at Fresno over the total deserves special mention. With the score 41-14 San Jose backup QB Kyle Reed hooked up with Josh Harrison for a 59-yard TD completion with no time left. They then kicked the extra point (something that’s always in question on the game’s final play) for the push.
This will win you a bar bet. The leaders of the ACC’s two divisions are….Virginia and Boston College. And the leader in the Big 12 North is…..Kansas State. It’s equally shocking that Louisiana-Monroe is co-leader in the Sun Belt, but nobody cares about the Sun Belt, so let’s move on. Got a few “why don’t you like Bret Bielema?” emails after suggesting here that the Wisconsin coach was a good reason not to follow the big move toward the Badgers last week. Bielema had a good first year following Barry Alvarez, but he’s 11-19 against the spread since then, underperforming in big game after big game, like against Iowa on Saturday.
Former Texas Tech starting QB Taylor Potts replaces Sticks Sheffield due to a foot injury suffered by Sheffield in the Red Raiders win at Nebraska. Potts was the starter before suffering a concussion, averaging 7.7 yards per pass attempt with 13 TD’s and 6 interceptions. Sheffield took the Red Raiders production to a higher level, averaging nearly 10 yards per pass attempt with 12 TD’s and only 2 interceptions. Potts’ numbers are bound to improve against an Aggie pass defense allowing over 10 yards per pass attempt in their two conference games.
The Red Raiders opposing QB this Saturday, Texas A&M’s Jerrod Johnson, had his impressive streak of 225 passes without an interception broken in the second quarter of the Aggies blowout loss at Kansas State. Johnson then threw 3 picks in a span of 23 passes. Russell Wilson of NC State had a NCAA record skein of 379 passes without an interception broken against Wake Forest a couple of games ago. From that point Wilson then threw 4 interceptions in less than 9 quarters. Miniscule sample size but does a careful QB take more chances without the pressure of a pickless streak being broken?
The 4th quarter explosion at Missouri was nice, but Nebraska’s offense has been horrific in 7 of their last 8 quarters. You can tell it’s been a while since Nebraska has had much success when the famously polite Husker fans boo starting QB Zac Lee and openly clamor for the elevation of backup Cody Green to the starting spot. There’s a definite lack of patience in Lincoln, and their usually savvy fans should realize that Bill Callahan did a lot of damage that’s going to take some time to fix.
Where reaching the time of the year where depth starts to be an issue. I was looking for reasons to play Auburn against LSU in the Tiger vs. Tiger matchup, as LSU’s offense is really struggling right now. But Auburn’s offense isn’t getting the same kind of production against the athletic defenses of the SEC while defensively they’re particlarly thin at the linebacker position. Their 3 starting linebackers played the entire game last week and this is their 8th straight game without a week off. Syracuse is another team with depth issues. New coach Doug Marrone cleaned house after the Greg Robinson debacle, with 18 players leaving the program. The difference in the Orangemen this week is that they’re rested and taking on an Akron team that provided them their most humiliating loss of last season.
Good luck this weekend in your own personal college football wars.
