To Convert or Not to Convert: Last week we wrote about the San Diego State-Air Force game that saw SDSU score on the last play of the game and we mentioned the pointspread implications.  There was no need to mention that the extra point was not attempted.   This past weekend we caught the close of two games that ended on “meaningless” TD plays.  When Indiana scored a “meaningless” TD against Penn State on the game’s final play, the Hoosiers kicked the extra point, which made some who bet the over in the middle of the week before it went up, very, very happy.  In the Auburn/Tennessee game, Tennessee scored on the game’s final play, and Lane Kiffin gave midweek over players and middlers some brief hope holding up two fingers as though the Vols would attempt a 2-pont conversion.   But when Auburn’s players and staff ran across the field to shake hands, Kiffin did the same, and no conversion was attempted.

In the NFL, when a TD is scored on the game’s final play, an extra point is attempted whether it is needed or not.   The rationale is that since point differential is a tiebreaker for playoff positioning, an extra point should be attempted.   Seems like a policy is in order for the college boys as well, if only to keep conspiracy theorists at bay.

The Luck Factor: Pointspread heartache was in full effect during last week’s prime time affairs.  In Thursday night’s game at West Virginia, a Colorado TD with 3 seconds left was ideal for those who bet the Buffs and the over.   In Provo on Friday night, Utah State “earned” the cover with a TD, also with 3 seconds left, in their loss to BYU.   These plays, and the dozens more like them that will occur over the course of the season, remind us that a lot of our bets will be decided by luck, maybe as many as half over the course of a long season.  

If you accept that premise, a 55% bettor (which is a rare bird indeed) will split his luck games 50/50, and on the remaining half of his plays will have 60% right sides and 40% wrong sides.  Now this is arguable (a good shopper will have lucky wins that others won’t get), and a lot of it is subject to interpretation (in their mind, bettors see too many of their winners as right sides and too many of their losers as bad luck), but it isn’t all that far off base.  And the truth of it should keep you from getting too bent out of shape when those unjust pointspread non-covers occur, as they are simply inevitable.

Rutgers Wimpy Schedule: The 12 game schedule has the majority of 1-A teams playing a 1-AA opponents, but nobody has a cushier schedule than Rutgers, who plays a pair of lower division outfits, as well as 1-A lightweights Florida International and Army.  After beating Howard (Sagarin #218, lost to Florida A&M 48-10 in their next outing), Rutgers takes on Texas Southern (Sagarin #231) this week.  Texas Southern lost to Louisiana-Monroe 58-0 and fellow 1-AA school Texas State 52-18.  Online sportsbooks have been more aggressive about taking action on 1-AA games this fall, and it’ll be interesting to see what the line is on Game 447/448 this week.  

Digging Deep in the SEC:  New offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn is receiving a good bit of credit for Auburn’s 5-0 start, and with good reason, as the next scoring play by the Tigers will see them eclipse their entire scoring output from last year’s 12-game schedule.   Now Malzahn takes his Tiger offense to Arkansas on Saturday with a good bit of motivation.  Malzahn was fired after a single year as Arkansas offensive coordinator after being a serial state championship winner at a local high school.  He brought along several of his high school players and after his system was junked, most of them ended up elsewhere.   A week after Malzahn was let go, then-Arkansas know-it-all athletic director Frank Broyles said “this offense won’t work in the SEC unless your quarterback runs the ball.”  

Auburn QB Chris Todd is no running QB, with only 9 runs in 5 games (not counting 2 sacks) with a long run of 6 yards. While every other Tiger would count a win over Alabama as their single-game goal for the season, Malzahn might have a different answer, and he’d love to put up a big number on the Razorbacks Saturday.

Tim Tebow’s not the only concussed Gator. The brilliant Moses Jenkins is a special teams ace for Florida, and he’s out with a concussion.  The combination of Jenkins’ effectiveness on coverage teams and Trindon Holliday’s brilliance as a returner for LSU makes this item worth mentioning.

Anyone, Anywhere, Anytime…Any Losses?:  Fresno State’s “Anyone, Anywhere, Anytime” scheduling philosophy is admirable, but hasn’t worked out well for the Bulldogs.   My handicapping colleague Matty Baiungo points out that Fresno is 1-3 with their 3 losses all being very competitive affairs to opponents that are a combined 15-0 thus far this season.  Matty, Erik Schepoink, and Dave Fobare all offer valuable information in my Maximum Profit Football Weekly.  The Max is available for just over $6 per week and that comes with a load of free bonuses.  Call 770-649-1078 to subscribe.

Coordinated Failure: The aforementioned Gus Malzahn at Auburn and Mark Whipple at Miami are a couple of instances where a new offensive coordinator has worked out brilliantly.  But the move of former Illinois OC Mike Locksley to New Mexico to be head coach in the ABQ has been an abject failure for both schools, who have a combined 1-7 pointspread record and 0-8 straight up mark against 1-A opponents.  Locksley figured to have growing pains installing a new offense, but an age discrimination suit by a secretary, and a punching an assistant coach were not to be expected.  “Locksley Era off to Horrible Start at New Mexico” is likely not the kind of headline that folks in LoboLand were hoping for.  UNM finally got a cover when they stayed inside the 34-point spread against a Texas Tech team distracted by Twittergate.  

When Locksley’s replacement at Illinois, Mike Schultz, was hired as Illini offensive coordinator last year, he made a lot of noise about playing offense at a fast pace.  But apparently, the pace doesn’t matter when you refuse to throw the ball downfield.  The dink and dunk game doesn’t fit Juice Williams strengths and the senior QB has gone from second tier Heisman candidate to backup, as averaging 8 points per game against 1-A opponents has led to Williams’ benching.   Missouri, Ohio State, and Penn State are the three opponents, but even accounting for the meaty schedule, it’s been a disaster for everybody’s preseason “now team” in the Big 10.

All the best to you this weekend in your all your college football wagering endeavors, as well as everything else you do.