Thad Lewis of Duke has been an underappreciated player for a few years now.  And NFL types are interested in the senior QB.   But for all his fine work over the past four years, he’s also really capable of a clunker or two.   Last week UNC’s speedy defense held him to 16 of 33 for 113 yards, right around 3.5 yards per pass attempt, which is terrible.   Back in September against a less athletic opponent in Army, Lewis was 5 for 16 for 60 yards before being benched.   But Lewis gets very little support from his teammates.  Duke has been held under 100 yards by every 1-A opponent they’ve faced, and against 1-A opposition Duke rushes for a putrid 1.7 yards per attempt,  While that includes sack yardage Lewis is at least being better protected this season.  He’s been sacked 22 times this season, which isn’t bad when you consider that he was sacked 82 times combined in his freshman and sophomore seasons.   How effective would Lewis be with a running game supporting him?

Has there ever been a coach that can just plug in a backup quarterback with no ill effects like Brian Kelly of Cincinnati?  UC was outstanding last season despite playing musical quarterbacks, and they’re doing it again this season. Tony Pike (15 TD’s, 3 interceptions) goes down with an injury and backup Zach Calleros steps in without the Bearcats missing a beat.  Calleros now has 10 TD’s, a single interception, and a ridiculous 13.3 yards per pass attempt on the season.   Unlike the Dookies, the Cinti QB’s have a ton of support from their running game, averaging 5.1 yards per rush.  The balanced Bearcats are top 10 in the country both yards per pass attempt and yards per rush attempt. 

Surprisingly, as good as Cincinnati is, and as under the radar as they are, they haven’t been a productive pointspread outfit.  Bettors are breaking even with the Bearcats since the start of last season, with an 11-10 record against the spread.  Kelly’s heroes are 5-3 this year after going 6-7 against the number last year.

A lot of offshore sports books and Vegas bookies are smiling, as the top teams continue their middling performance to the pointspread. Texas is 3-5-1 against the spread.  Florida is 3-4-1 to the number.   Bama is 6-3 spreadwise.  So the top 3 BCS teams are dead even .500 to the number.  The smaller undefeated schools know that they need their style points.  Boise State and TCU are each 6-2 against the spread. 

The Horned Frogs are just pounding people, beating their last four opponents, all Mountain West conference foes, by a combined 178-25.  The football betting market has noticed, as TCU is favored by 17 or so over a Utah team that is 21-1 since the start of last season.   And when you look into the numbers, the spread is justifiable.  If Texas were to slip up, TCU would be a worthy championship game participant, but TCU closes with New Mexico and Wyoming, which doesn’t do a whole lot for the old strength of schedule

Texas is an interesting case study.  They gain only 5.8 yards per play, which is a middling 41st in the NCAA when judging how teams do against 1-A opponents.  But they are very efficient, scoring a point for every 10.5 yards of offense, which is best in the land.   That kind of offensive efficiency is often fueled by your defense making scores and giving you short fields.  Texas’ D is the top yardage D in the land, allowing opponents a mere 3.5 yards per play.

I hope you learned something that’ll help you win a few bucks at some point. Good luck this weekend, and be careful.