People love to see how the lines move when they first come out.  Those who are ready to bet at the opener are usually pretty informed guys who understand the marketplace.  Certain sports books are willing to take their action, in essence paying for the information of who these sharps like.  The books will then use this knowledge as part of their recipe to determine the “right side” as they try to shade their lines to attract action on from other bettors.   So it makes sense to follow those early moves, right?

In theory, yes.  But here’s the problem.  Some of the moves are false ones.  In recent years a few large bettors have gotten more sophisticated in how they attack the market, and will play a game in the opposite direction of what they like in an effort to get a better number.   A respected group of bettors can play a game at just a few influential sports books at -6 can create a line move in the entire marketplace to -7.  They then bet the underdog much heavier at +7,  getting the number they originally desired via this market manipulation.

There’s an additional reason to take early season line moves with a grain of salt. Opening week in college football (this week) and the NFL (next week) provides a unique circumstance in that a few books have had lines up on these games for a month, while others just post lines six days in advance.  So the moves early in opening week are not on fresh numbers, but on numbers that have been hammered out in the marketplace throughout the month of August.

Trying to determine what sides are the “right sides” based on line moves can be a wise use of a handicapper’s time, but make sure you are aware of the potential of false moves and the unique circumstance of the month-long availability of Week 1 lines.