Real World Sports

August 19th, the First Day of Football

Today’s the first day of the football season. It is for us here anyway. We’ve actually been buried in football preparation for a while now, and starting today and going forward we’ll be sharing some of that here with you.

So what kind of preparation takes place? Original work, first. After doing my own work all summer, I actually just bought a few of the annuals in the last couple of days. I prefer that my own opinions are not unduly influenced by those of others. So it is interesting to see how the conclusions I reach differ from others (let’s play out the season before handing the Lombardi Trophy to the Vikings, please). But then again, I’m looking at different factors.

I’m really not interested in what team is going to finish ahead of what other team in the standings, I’m looking for teams that are going to be overrated or underrated heading into the campaign from a betting perspective. I couldn’t be any less interested in the Heisman Trophy (until the pursuit of it becomes a slight pointspread factor in a few games late in the season), while many have great interest in the goings on of the New York Athletic Club. So some of these annuals are more valuable to me than others.

Last year I saw the 49ers as an underrated team (remember the young talented Niners ready to burst on the scene?)…until I saw that everyone else considered them to be that way as well. And then they went from underrated to overrated in my mind, based just on public perception. In addition to the aforementioned Vikings, now that the Jets have picked up Favre, they suddenly may have a little too much expected out of them as well.

The one annual you must have if you’re looking to do statistical work in the college and pros is Marc Lawrence’s Playbook Annual. I’d say that even if I didn’t offer a slight contribution to it. What’s especially strong about Marc’s is that it contains both college and pro in the same book. I also like the alphabetical listings. I understand the thought of breaking things down by conference and division, but in oft-used handicapping resource I far prefer alphabetical.

For college personnel information obviously Phil Steele’s book is tops and Blue Ribbon is good, too. I’ve hardly done a comprehensive view of the marketplace but Marc, Phil, and Blue Ribbon will all be references for me early, while I’ll use Marc’s book throughout the year as well due to the ease in finding past statistical data for both college and pros.

There’s such saturation coverage of the NFL these days I wonder if there’s even a need for an NFL annual anymore. Fantasy football has brought it all to the forefront. NFL information is common currency. That’s helpful to the handicapper in that everyone’s following the same narrative, creating a groundswell of opinion providing greater value than ever before to the contrarian thinker.

So there’s some light thoughts on preseason preparation and some of the widely available football resources. If you’d like a copy of my Maximum Profit Football Annual (and you’re not already on our mailing list) listing a few overrated and underrated teams, visit FootballAnnual.com to claim your free copy.