Sports books have a healthy hold on prop bets for the Super Bowl. And the biggest money makers for the books are the ones offering the most choices.
Player vs. player, over/under, and yes/no prop bets offer just two outcomes. They usually require the bettor to lay the equivalent of $1.10 or $1.15 to win a dollar. And while I’d never consider playing at a sports book that required you to lay -115 on sides and totals, with hundreds of unique yes/no or over/under props that can offer a bettor an edge, sports books making bettors lay -115 instead of -110 is acceptable.
These prices are often adjusted to have a money-line favorite or an underdog. For example, a prop may be -150 to the over and +120 to the under. That 30-cent difference between the underdog and favorite makes it roughly equivalent to a bet that requires you to lay -115 on either side. The -150/+120 is actually slightly more advantageous to the player than -115 on either side, but we’ll go into that some other time. These yes/no or over/under propositions at the equivalent of -115 or less are bets that can offer an edge.
For example, a look at the fresh offerings of a sports book that was very slow to post Super Bowl props shows an opportunity to bet New York Giants back Brandon Jacobs over or under 12.5 receiving yards. The bettor must lay -1.15 to win a dollar whether they think Jacobs will go over or under those 12.5 receiving yards. Laying $1.15 to win a buck, the bettor has to win 53.48% of the time to break even. That is a reasonable offering from a sports book, and if the bettor’s understanding of football is better than the linemaker’s, money can be won on those kind of propositions.
Multiple-choice props are far worse. The same sports book that has the Brandon Jacobs receiving yards bet has a prop on which quarter will see the most total points scored. The first quarter is +230 (2.3 to 1), which expressed as a probability suggests a 30.3% chance of happening. The second quarter is +125, suggesting a 44.4% chance. The third quarter is +215, suggesting a 31.7% chance. The fourth quarter is +180, which corresponds to a 35.7% chance.
The four possible offerings in to the “highest scoring quarter prop” have probabilities that add up to 142.1%. Therefore, the house edge on this prop is 42.1%, as opposed to a theoretical house edge of less than 5% on wagers at -110 and a house edge of about 7% on those at -115.
These theoretical edges can be overcome in sports betting with a superior opinion. But nearly every multiple choice prop is much harder to beat than the yes/no, over/under, or player vs. player props. Let others analyze multiple-choice offerings such as who is going to score the first touchdown. Focus most of your Super Bowl efforts on props offering just two potential outcomes.