Weather appears to be a potential factor in many, many games east of the Rockies today.

Rain in the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Midwest: The weather appears to be worse than yesterday’s forecast in a lot of places.  Games at Penn State, Michigan, NC State, Maryland, Navy (in Baltimore) are among those that look to be both wet and windy, but not to an extreme.  Worth noting that the stadium at Maryland is much more susceptible to wind than is the Ravens Stadium in Baltimore, where the seats go much, much higher.

Wind in the Boone Pickens Belt:  In the Great Plains States and down into Texas, it looks windy.  Games at Kansas and Kansas State may be among those affected.   Showing how dicey this can all be, the game at Baylor has winds forecast from 22MPH early in the game, and then from 10MPH in the second half.  Move that up an hour and wind isn’t a factor at all.  Have the winds hang around later than expected and it’s potentially a big factor.

Thunderstorms in Florida: There’s a bunch of games in Florida with thunderstorms forecast today.  Obviously, that’s hit and miss.

Watch and Listen: Best thing to do if you’re looking to play a “weather under” is to be tuned in right as the telecast starts.  Or find their radio broadcasts on the internet. And then see what conditions are like.  Conditions change, which is why I like first half unders and first quarter unders.  Might be worth riding the radar before gametime for the games in Florida today as well.

Hour By Hour Forecasts: Games often take place in places with poor weather forecast, but not during the time that the poor weather is happening.  Games in all regions today, like at Marshall (4:30PM EST), at Iowa State (6:30PM EST), and at Kentucky (8PM EST) take place after the worst of the day’s weather is forecast.

Be Careful:  It’s impossible to be definitive with all these potential weather games.  Some of these games may be influenced.  Most of them likely won’t be.  But there’s a chance you’ll get a couple of good under plays if you put the work in, listen to the radio pregame, and are ready to move quickly as the game telecasts begin today.

Good luck, and if you live someplace where there’s a good under play due to weather, stay inside.

Let’s look at the key stats behind some overachieving teams and some disappointing outfits in this season’s NFL.  What’s different for these teams?

Buffalo Bills: The Bills improvement is largely in their defense.  They’ve improved from 5.6 yards per play to 4.9 yards per play, as well as 361 yards allowed to 299 yards.

Tennessee Titans: The offense ain’t much, but what a D.  The Titans defense has improved from an excellent 5.0 yards per play to an unbelievable 4.4.

Denver Broncos:   Denver’s winning some games, but statistically their defense has been horrendous.  It wasn’t a strength last year at 5.6 yards per play, and that has skyrocketed to 6.4 yards per play this year.

New York Giants:  Eli Manning and the Giants offense are cooking, both running and passing effectively.  They’ve gone from 4.6 yards per rush last year to 6.1 this year.  And 5.7 yards per pass last year to 7.4 yards per pass.  Their 2008 offensive stats are extraordinary.

New England Patriots: 6.4 yards per play last year on offense.  Brady-free, they’re 4.9 this year.  A huge decline for an obvious reason.

Green Bay Packers:  The Pack are having trouble stopping the run, from allowing 3.9 yards per rush last year to allowing 5.1 this year.

Seattle Seahawks:  The Seahawks are an opposing quarterback’s dream.  After allowing 6.0 yards per pass last year, they allow 7.7 this year.

Indianapolis Colts:  The Colts are worse both offensively and defensively.  They had a 5.9 to 4.7 yards per play edge last year, it is only 5.5 to 5.4 this season.

Note:  You’ll notice that a lot of these statistical changes have mitigating circumstances.  The Titans have played some poor offensive teams.   The Giants had a couple of home games where their opponents didn’t show up.  The Colts have had injuries on both sides of the ball, especially offense.

So some of the improvement and decline has a reason behind it.  Determining which teams have excuses, which don’t and what it all means as we go forward will make a big difference in your bottom line.

Howard Schnellenberger’s been around the block a few times, to say the least, and he’s done a great job in building the Florida Atlantic program from a gleam in some administrators’ eyes to the top program in the Sun Belt. Of course the top program in the Sun Belt is like saying that you have the best pulled pork barbecue in Northern Minnesota, but still, FAU isn’t half-bad, whipping Memphis in a bowl game last year, hanging around with USF, etc.

But while the Owls have a lot of talent back (relatively speaking), there is still a huge class difference between FAU and the major powers in college football. Their best chance is to catch their major conference opponents not taking them seriously.

So if you were thinking of taking 22.5 with FAU at Texas next Saturday, you should be aware of comments that Coach Schnellenberger made to the FAU student newspaper. Schnellenberger said that Texas “has great talent, but they aren’t tough, they aren’t a physically tough football team.”

Why would you fire up your opponent by calling them out on their toughness? I have no idea. But I’d hate to be a FAU wide receiver going over the middle of the field in this ballgame.

And if part of your handicap was that that Mack Brown might be gentlemanly by not scoring late in the game, you might want to rethink how juicy those 22.5 points actually appear in that ballgame.

I love the fact that the speed horses have all drawn outside in the Derby, and I’ll be betting against the favored Big Brown. This 20-horse race with huge exotic pools is one you can really justify spreading out in. Let’s take a look at every horse.

In post position order….

1. Cool Coal Man won at Churchill in the fall, but threw in a clunker over the track in the Kentucky Jockey’s Cup. Perfect at Gulfstream, and if you throw out his Bluegrass run over the Polytrack you can make a case for him. Beyers a bit light, but has won three of four from the inside post.

2. Tale of Ekati scored a nice win in the Wood, but is 3 for 3 at Belmont, 0 for 3 elsewhere. Trainer Tagg is great in graded stakes races, with a $2.76 return for every $2 bet.

3. Anak Nakal will be a long, long price, and justifiably so based on recent form. I know a smart guy who gives him a chance, but this horse has been 5th, 7th, and 8th in three races this year. Won here last year.

4. Court Vision won a Grade 3 here in October. Seems slow, but if you’re looking for deep closers, this is likely one.

5. Eight Belles is a filly and has never run against colts. Trainer Larry Jones is highly successful in the southwest, but this is the big leagues. But another smart guy I know likes her.

6. Z Fortune’s second in the Arkansas Derby may be as impressive as anything anyone has done here, as he was four-wide around both turns, losing a ton of ground.

7. Big Truck will be one of the longest shots on the board. Won the Tampa Bay Derby with a 93 Beyer but everything else has been 87 or less. Will need a fast race that falls apart because this closer just isn’t that fast.

8. Visionaire is a live longshot and was the only horse making up ground late in the Bluegrass over the Polytrack. Previous four races were all impressive and trainer Matz won here with Barbaro.

9. Pyro will likely be the third betting choice despite the horrendous clunker in the Bluegrass. If you toss that race due to the Polytrack (which everyone seems very willing to do) this horse is the most likely winner of all the closers.

10. Colonel John won the Santa Anita Derby, and the winner of that race is always a threat. But this horse has never raced on dirt before, with all six races over synthetic surfaces.

11. Z Humor has been 3rd, 4th, and 5th this year after earning $543,700 as a two-year old. Will be close to the pace, which I don’t like to see.

12. Smooth Air finished second to Big Brown’s monstrous performance in the Florida Derby after winning the Grade 2 Hutcheson New Year’s Week. Trainer Stutts not used to this level. Makes up ground in the stretch and tough to toss out.

13. Bob Black Jack has led every step of the way in all three of his wins, which is nearly impossible in this race. Obviously talented but as never raced on dirt (get used to California contenders with nothing but synthetic experience).

14. Monba only raced twice all year. Fountain of Youth was a disaster before winning the Bluegrass over Polytrack. Pletcher famously poor as a trainer in this race. Can you trust the Polytrack performance?

15. Adriano ran ninth in his only dirt race of his career, but you have to figure that Prado had other options and he’s on this one’s back.

16. Denis of Cork seems too slow but has won 3 of 4 lifetime and made up over 20 lengths in his Southwest win at Oaklawn. Calvin Borel won this one last year up the rail.

17. Cowboy Cal is a speed-oriented horse used to racing on turf and Polytrack.

18. Recapturetheglory paid $33.80 in the Illinois Derby but seems a need-to-lead horse and is surrounded by speed.

19. Gayego won the Arkansas Derby in his only dirt performance. Veteran jock Mike Smith knows this race and will try to avoid being right on the lead, preferring to rate just behind the pace. Has a shot if he can avoid getting caught up in the outside speed.

20. Big Brown ran monsters in all three of his three career races, but is obviously light on experience. Plenty of speed outside along with him. Don’t trust Dutrow in the big leagues and will play against him and hope the pace cooks him.

Our transition to the new format took a little longer than we expected, but we’re back and will have plenty of information on Friday and all weekend long. Check back often.

Playing big NFL favorites is a good way to go broke. But I’d be wary of playing the Rams as a big dog today. In addition to the horrible injury situation on their offensive line, this is from the Dallas Morning News:

“It’s the second time this season and the third time in the last 19 games the Rams have played against a 3-4. Bulger has been sacked nine times in the other two games against 3-4s.”

As this may lead to turnovers and quick Dallas points, I don’t know if Rams team total under 17 might be the best way to attack this.

Here are another 25 observations from the football wagering world.

1.The Smurf Turf has a little too much age on it to be amusing anymore, but the Boise fans’ “odd numbered sections wear blue, even numbered sections wear orange” gambit is clever and fresh.

2. Nothing fresh about Texas A&M last Thursday night, as the Aggies 34-17 loss at Miami was actually much worse than that. It was 31-0 after three quarters. Javorskie Lane never got a carry until it was 24-0 midway through the 3rd. The 277-pound bruiser, who was second team all-conference last year when he ran for 19 TD’s, finished with 2 carries for 2 yards. Needless to say, the natives are restless in College Station.

3. Coach Fran should take lessons from Ed Orgeron. Orgeron is under fire at Ole’ Miss. So what does he do? He blames the players. Following the Rebels loss to Vandy, Orgeron said, “When you have guys who are not really physically or mentally ready to play at the speed of the game in the SEC,” he said, “they kind of look like they’re out of place.” Questioning whether your players belong in your conference hardly seems like a wise motivational tactic, but the Rebs did hang with Florida.

4. Speaking of that Ole’ Miss cover against Florida. Urban Meyer is now 0-9-1 against the spread laying points on the road in the regular season. In all other roles he’s 12-5-1 to the number since his arrival in Gainesville.

5. In week where college overs were 33-15, this was part of the scoring explosion, not only was Navy’s 46-43 win over Duke the final score in regulation, but in 27 minutes of game time from the 1st quarter into the 3rd quarter there were 10 touchdowns scored.

6. Duke’s 506 yards of offense in their loss was minor compared to other weekend goings on. Ball State gained 610 yards in their loss at Nebraska, missing a field goal at the gun that would have pulled the upset. The Huskers have allowed 89 points and 1,067 yards in their loss to USC and the narrow win Saturday. You have to think if Bo Pelini had gotten the Husker job that wouldn’t have happened. Texas Tech lost to Oklahoma State despite 718 yards of offense. Tech coach Mike Leach forced out defense coordinator Lyle Setencich after the game. Setencich’s wife has long-term health issues (hospitalized with a brain bleed a couple of years ago) and was admitted to the hospital again during the week prior to the Okie State game. Tough racket that coaching business.

7. Boston College beat Wake Forest and NC State in fairly evenly played games due to those two opponents combining for 11 turnovers, but the Eagles have become dominant in the last two weeks, outgaining Georgia Tech by 260 yards and whipping Army by 314 yards. Just 1-AA UMass this week for the Eagles.

8. Syracuse’s stunner at +37½ (and even +38 in places) over Louisville was the largest pointspread upset in history. But was it the most surprising upset? I don’t think so. More here.

9. Pac Ten folks definitely have reason to complain about East Coast bias. This Oregon/Cal game should be the national headliner, and it isn’t even the Pac Ten headliner, as the USC/Washington game is being played at night on ABC. I guess that means that it is suffering from West Coast bias as well. Both these teams have some defensive liabilities.

10. With Wisconsin, Michigan, and Penn State (only 270 yards against a Michigan offense lit up by others) all struggling offensively, young Ohio State suddenly looks like the class of the Big Ten. The Buckeyes simply smashed Northwestern, leading 28-0 less than 10 minutes into the game, and reaching the 58-7 final score in the 3rd quarter before showing mercy on the outmanned Wildcats. The Buckeyes inexperienced skill position people should gain even more confidence at Minnesota facing a Gopher club that has allowed more than 500 yards to all four opponents this season, including two MAC teams and a Sun Belt outfit.

11. Notre Dame loses 31-14 at home to Michigan State (4-8 last year), gaining 203 yards in the process. This is hailed as progress, by their head coach, with Weis saying “we finally looked like a football team out there,” and thanking MSU Coach Mark Dantonio for not running up the score. Egads.

12. Losing to a Sun Belt team is embarrassing, but at least Memphis wasn’t humiliated on Thursday night. Against Central Florida, the Tigers were without their best offensive player and their best defensive player, but there’s still no excuse for letting Central Florida score the first six times they had the ball on the way to a 42-0 halftime lead and 601 yards of total offense. Due to last year’s injuries and bad luck, in certain circles much was expected from the Tigers this season, but it is shaping up to be a disaster if they don’t turn things around. With the UM administration thumbing their nose at a consultant’s report backing alumni who want to build an on campus stadium, the football program looks to be stuck in the Liberty Bowl and stuck in reverse.

13. Before moving on to the NFL…if you like to listen to top-level pointspread analysis, there are a couple of great calls for you to make. Call Dave Fobare’s hotline broadcast at 1-770-618-8700 for free selections. Dave has been particularly hot with his selections on that line. Erik Scheponik and Matty Baiungo broadcast their analysis at 1-404-250-7555. Both of these are 24-hour free recordings, so you can call any time.

14. Before DeAngelo Hall decided to let his ego and mouth turn a FG attempt into a penalty-fueled TD midway through the 3rd quarter, the Falcons led 17-10 on the scoreboard and 335-136. That turned the game around and Carolina came back for a 27-20 win.

15. The Direct TV Red Zone channel is terrific. And host Andrew Siciliano pulls no punches. In the span of 30 seconds he narrated highlights with “Roddy White wakes up and remembers he’s a first round pick” and “Ronald Curry hauls in a touchdown pass and then the punk move at the end”.

16. Act Like You’ve Been There Department. After his defender fell down, allowing him to waltz for a touchdown, the aforementioned White did a somersault into the end zone and jumped into the stands. One or the other, please, though “neither” would be preferred.

17. For a guy whose Stanford team scored more than 10 points exactly once in the seven games he started last year, Bills rookie QB Trent Edwards looked fairly competent in relief of JP Losman. In addition to the Losman injury, the Bills had only six of their projected defensive starters in New England, and three of those guys are on injured reserve.

18. With all the injuries, the Bills have a chance to be historically bad. They’ve been outgained 284, 197, and 297 yards thus far and allowing opponents to gain 2.7 yards per play than Buffalo gains themselves. Graded they’ve played a tough schedule in the Broncos, Steelers, and Patriots, but that’s just awful. The Jets were outplayed on the line of scrimmage by Miami, and were lucky to win that game, but it is difficult to fade them here with a Bills team that is being outgained by an average of 200-458, giving them the 32nd ranked offense and the 32nd ranked defense. After Sunday it is doubtful that we’ll see the Jets as a road favorite any time soon.

19. The Rams are as banged up offensively as the Bills are defensively. In addition to Steven Jackson being out and Marc Bulger playing with broken ribs, starting center Brett Romberg will be the only Rams offensive lineman to have started all four games when he lines up against Dallas on Sunday.

20. The Bears are getting all the publicity, but the Lions are each far from healthy on defense. You’d have to look long and hard to find two teams playing each other with injury lists so chock full of defensive starters.

21. The Bills, Rams, Bears, and Lions aren’t alone. Does it seem like there has been an absolute scourge of injuries league-wide thus far?

22. I don’t mind the players shaking hands, fraternizing, praying, etc. after the games, but if I’m a Broncos fan I’m not thrilled with Jay Cutler laughing out loud with Jaguars after the Broncos loss.

23. In the tradition of baseball egomaniac Gary “Camera” Carter, when Shawn Merriman paid his respects to Brett Favre after the game Sunday, he made sure to turn towards the nearby scrum of photographers when he did so.

24. Since the start of last season, only two NFL teams have allowed more than two special teams returns for touchdowns. The St. Louis Rams have allowed three special teams returns for TD’s. The world-champion Indianapolis Colts have permitted five touchdowns (one punt returns and four kickoff returns). That’s something Tony Dungy and his special teams coach Russ Purnell really need to shore up.

25. Fox Sports Radio’s Steve Czaban is a DC guy, and covers the Redskins closely, including when Norv Turner was coach. He’s said for years that Turner is a great offensive designer and strategist, but lacks the leadership skills required of a top head coach. Is it out of the realm of possibility that the Chargers will just fall apart?

12 fully analyzed games with pointspread projections are waiting for you when you subscribe to the Maximum Profit Football Weekly. These plays went 8-3-1 against the pointspread last week. The Max goes for about $7 per week when you subscribe by calling 1-770-649-1078. It will be emailed to you immediately upon your order.

Both Cal and Oregon have some defensive liabilities. Oregon gave up over 300 yards rushing to Houston in their opener and my colleague Dave Fobare pointed out in my Max newsletter that In my Max newsletter this week, my colleague Dave Fobare points out that Oregon allowed Michigan 215 yards in their first 25 plays from scrimmage before the Wolverines essentially gave up.

Cal’s defense has performed somewhat better but of their three defensive starters who missed last week’s game with injury, only LB Matt Malele has a chance to return this week.

More on this game in our Top 25 column later today.

My usual Friday morning spot on a great many of the 290 affiliates of Fox Sports Radio will be an hour early this week, so listen in on XM 142 or one of their local stations at 7:10AM Eastern Time. “First Team on Fox” host Steve Czaban’s web site should be on your list of places to visit. Small world department: Czabe’s talented sidekick Scott Linn’s kids have play dates with the kids of a fraternity brother of mine. But you could have gotten by without knowing that, couldn’t you?

Those of you in Las Vegas and elsewhere who complain that you can’t hear Marc Lawrence’s Against the Spread program anymore in your local markets should listen in online. I believe that’s up by Thursday afternoon each week. Same cast of characters on that show this year, with handicapping stalwart Marc Lawrence, hard-working totals specialist Victor King, and the legendary Jack Reynolds piloting the ship.

I’ll be on a couple of other programs this week as well. I’ll be doing an online interview with Jon Spevack tonight at 10:30PM Eastern. I sound tired, it is because I will be. Jon works on Pacific Time, so since he’s screwing with my body clock I’ll call him at 5:00AM Pacific Time and act all befuddled that he’s groggy. “You’re still asleep? I’ve already worked out, had breakfast, and read all the newspapers that cover the NFC Central. What are you doing sleeping your day away, Jon?” Actually he was kind enough to move it up a half-hour from his planned time. Again, that’s 10:30PM Eastern, 7:30 Pacific.

Then on Thursday at 5:30 PM Eastern Time I’ll be a guest for a half hour with John Kelly on the Leroy’s Sports Hour. John is billing the show as “Steele and O’Neill” hour, so listen in 30 minutes earlier than that if you want to hear Phil Steele’s half hour. You can listen online here or you Nevadans can listen on 630AM KPLY in Reno or 1460AM KENO in Vegas at 2:30 Pacific Time.

I think that’s it. I’ll try to keep you apprised of what other shows I’m on if time permits (my spot on a show in Miami last week was kind of last minute).

In their 31-28 win over the Dolphins, the Jets were outgained by a seemingly dominant margin, 7.2 yards per play to 4.3 yards per play (424-256 in raw yardage). Much of the yardage occurred during garbage time, but even with a 31-13 lead, the Jets were being outgained 260-228. The Jets did benefit from a kickoff return for a TD, and importantly, they made their yardage count. Their two TD and two field goal drives totaled 243 yards. So they did absolutely nothing (13 yards) offensively other than their four scoring drives.

The Jets scoring drives totaled 95% of their total yards, which might be an interesting stat to judge efficiency. The Jets needed to gain only 8.25 yards for every point scored, a phenomenally efficient game for the New Yorkers. Not surprisingly, they didn’t turn the ball over. A return for a TD combined with no turnovers must lead to a pretty gaudy winning percentage.

A couple of other games where the losers outgained the winners by notable margins:

Bengals outgain Seahawks 412-340 but lose due to 4 turnovers.

Falcons outgain Panthers 442-313 but lose. Culprit for Atlanta was a 2-0 turnover disadvantage combined with a meathead at cornerback.

It will be interesting to see if these inefficient teams can turn it around or if they are just sloppy ballclubs destined to underperform their yardage numbers.

Favorites struggled in the NFL, going 5-9-2 (calling Texans, Bengals underdog covers, games hosted by the Jets and Chiefs pushes). Overs went 10-6, calling Giants/Redskins an under. With numerous games landing close to the number, your mileage may vary.