The Saints and Colts are undefeated in two very different ways.   The Saints have scored 24 points or more in every single game thus far this season.  After their brutal 17-15 win over Baltimore, the Colts have now won four games where they scored 20 or less.   The Saints and Colts were a combined 0-6 to the pointspread in the month of November before both covered on Sunday.  Throw in Denver and the three teams that were undefeated on November 1st are now 2-10 against the spread since then.

Nice effort by the Redskins on the road.  As we first wrote about when the Broncos moved into their new building and spoke of a diminished home field advantage in the middle of the 2001 season, these big new buildings don’t always offer a ton of home field edge.  They offer comfort instead of intimidation, and road teams have done pretty well against the pointspread.   The Cowboys are 4-1 straight up at home, and 3-2 against the spread, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if they underperform in Jerry’s Palace as so many other clubs have.  No surprise that discounting pushes, road teams are 86-70 against the spread by one count.

Cowboy CB Terence Newman shoved assistant coach Dave Campo on the bench Sunday, but it doesn’t seem to be a big deal in Cowboy land.  And the issue certainly wasn’t the defense on Sunday.   Statistically the Cowboys offense wasn’t dreadful, gaining 305 yards in 60 snaps.  But you would think this team would score in the first 57 minutes of a game, which it has failed to do in each of the past two weeks, almost by accident. 

The Seahawks gained 4 yards on 13 rushing attempts at Minnesota on Saturday.   And remember, that in the NFL sack yardage is not counted against the rushing yardage. Good thing they proactively locked up that Jim Mora to a deal as an assistant before anybody else could get to him, huh?  Looking at Mora and Cleveland’s Eric Mangini, it probably is not best to immediately scoop up the young coach who has already failed as a head man.  Let ’em get some seasoning back in them. 

If Nevada sports betting is really only down 10% in volume, they should be counting their blessings.  Casino players I know say that the offers to entice them out to the desert are staggering.   People out there the weekend of the Pacquiao/Cotto fight told me that the town was comparatively all but empty. Despite the downturn, expect New Jersey and Delaware to continue to push for full-scale sports betting, as those states remain hungry for revenue.

If someone offered you an over/under total of 33.5 on the Browns/Lions first quarter with no limit, how much would you have bet on the under? Tough push for Packer bettors.  Green Bay outgained San Francisco by 200 yards, earned 26 first downs to only 11 for the Niners, led 30-10 with 11 minutes left, yet only won 30-24 laying 6.  Some smart shoppers could’ve turned it into a win with -5.5, available in spots on Sunday.

I was fortunate enough to go 4-0 in the NFL for the second consecutive week with my Strategic Sports Publishing handicapping service.  In both weeks I went 3-0 with sides and hit a teaser, for a combined 8-0 mark the past two weeks.  This past weekend also had a 4-2 college football week.  If you’re interested in the rest of the football season and/or college and NBA basketball you can call 770-649-1078 for rates and details.

Thanks for reading this far.  Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours.

Giants NFL’s #1 Defense: It may surprise you to learn that the NFL’s top defense is the Big Blue stop unit of the New York Giants, who are on an 0-4 straight up and pointspread streak.  In fact, the NFL’s #1 defense allowed their last 4 opponents to average over 33 points per game before their bye week. 

It’s true.  The NFL ranks their defenses by total raw yardage allowed per game, and the Giants permit opponents to gain only 274.4 yards per game, 3 yards better than the #2 Steelers D.   If you’ve seen the Giants play, you understand this to be a crock, and more accurate stats prove that.  The Giants allow 5.1 yards per play, which is 12th in the league and sounds about right based on their good start and poor recent play.  Amazingly, the NFL’s “#1 defense” is the leagues #21 scoring defense.  

What’s going on here?  Turnovers for one.  Giants opponents have gotten some cheap points.  The other aspect is that Giant opponents have run only 482 plays, which is 48 fewer than anyone else in the league has faced.  Does that speak to the pace of the game?  With several Giants games being blowouts with little urgency late does that contribute the slow pace?   Whatever the reason or answer, it’s odd.  

Quirky Schedule: The Giants and their “#1 defense” host the Falcons in the swamps of Jersey.  Atlanta has lost 3 of 4 and is just as desperate as the Giants. If it seems like Atlanta’s on the road a lot, you’re not imagining things. Falcons season ticketholders probably envisioned being at more than two home games between September 20th and November 29th.  Bettors can sometimes get an edge by downgrading the importance of statistics generated by teams that have played nowhere but on the road, though that concept is not a tight fit right here, as the Falcons did open with a pair of home games.

“Year of the Favorite” Update: The 10-4-1 performance by NFL dogs (six outright upsets)  brings the underdog record to 40-25-2 over the past five weeks.  And yes, that includes the ”week of the favorites” last month, which saw chalk go 9-3-1, allegedly almost blasting ”Vegas”, the euphamism for the sports book world, to smithereens.

Why does everyone say “Vegas” when they talk about the sports betting industry?  I have never seen a legitimate estimate from an industry person or academic authority that sports betting in Vegas makes up any more than about 2% of the market on sports betting.  I’d be surprised if it was 1%. So why “Vegas”?

One Terrible Bet: The one push that we list this week should actually be a favorite cover for Minnesota supporter with a clue.  The Vikings, who were 16.5 all week long, beat the hard-tryin’ Lions 27-10.  If you waited until the weekend to bet Minnesota at -17, you need one of two things, a new hobby, or some educatin’.   If the latter is your answer, you can find what you need here.

Great Moments in NFL Television: The TV time outs just kill NFL games when you attend them in person.   Fox left the Cowboys/Packers game for the first quarter intermission with a official review under way.   When viewers came back, the play had been reversed and 20 seconds put back on the clock.  A punt followed, and Fox ran their change-of-possession commercials at the 10 second mark.   One play later it was the end of the first quarter and….you guessed it….an encore performance of the “end of the quarter” TV time out.   And if you were annoyed by the three full commercial breaks on TV for 20 seconds of “action”, imagine how the fans sitting on their hands in Green Bay felt about the matter.    Incidentally, this was just a few minutes after Fox’s Curt Menifee had reported in a cut-in that the Eagles led the Chargers 14-7 when in fact the Chargers led 7-0.  The error was corrected by Fox a minute later.

Bad Team News: How does a team turn things around?   In their initial five losses, the Titans lost turnovers 18-8.   In their three straight wins, the Titans have won turnovers 8-0.  In other “we got off to a dreadful start” news, befitting their position in the standings, Oakland and Green Bay combined for a stout 0 for 18 in 3rd down conversions in the first half on Sunday, improving drastically in the second half by combining for 3 for 13 on those key plays.

Underdog Home Improvement: Another sign of Vegas and online sports book health is the performance of home dogs.  Sports books are usually rooting for road favorites to fail, and they’ve failed lately.   Home underdogs have battled back from their dreadful start and are now 21-24 to the spread.  

NFL: Phone Your Million Dollar Lobbyists: The newly elected governor of New Jersey will need to make a decision about whether or not New Jersey should get involved in a lawsuit against the Federal Government designed to free states up to make thier own decisions regarding sports betting.  The struggling Atlantic City casinos fear an exodus of players to Delaware for their new offerings, which include NFL parlay and teaser betting.

Thanks for reading this far.  We had a nice 4-0 NFL card this past weekend on my late phone service and are about to start basketball, which is annually a profitable venture, particularly in November/December.  If you want more information on these services call 770-649-1078.

Lots of sports betting issues being kicked around by governments, courts, and the media right now.   And those issues being raised generate a lot of questions.  Let’s try to answer a few.

Q. Is Delaware set for full scale sports betting this fall?

A. It sure looks that way.   The professional sports leagues had an emergency request to delay implementation of Delaware sports betting denied.   They’ve appealed that ruling but it looks like Delaware sports betting is a go, at least until a December trial, where the leagues will sue to stop it. 

It appears as though harness tracks Dover Downs and Harrington Raceway will be joined by thoroughbred plant Delaware Park in offering full scale sports wagering this fall.   The tracks have invested millions to create sports book facilities.   Vegas-style sports betting on college and pro sports kicks off on September 1st.

Q. Can anything else derail Delaware’s plan?

A. Senate Republicans Orrin Hatch of Utah and John Kyl of Arizona, longtime foes of gambling, wrote a letter to Attorney General Holder asking him to take action in Delaware.   Tough to see the Obama Justice Department bending over backwards to accomodate that duo.  

Q. New Jersey’s casinos can’t be happy about this, can they?

A.  Not at all, this new challenge comes at a time when Atlantic City casino revenues are plummeting.   There appears to be considerable momentum in the Garden State to legalize sports betting in an effort to counter Delaware’s foray into not only sports betting, but casino gambling as well.   The problem is that Delaware, along with Oregon, Montana, and Nevada, is allowed to offer sports betting under federal law.  When Congress banned sports betting in the US back in 1992, those four states were grandfathered, as they had all allowed sports betting in some form or fashion previously.   Nevada’s offerings you’re aware of. Oregon, Montana, and Delaware’s previous offerings have all failed to stick.  But those states can offer sports betting without a change in federal law. The same cannot be said for New Jersey.

Q. What about Barney Frank’s online gambling legislation?

A.  Even if it passed, Frank’s legislation would not help sports bettors.  It specifically exempts sports betting, and like-minded legislation by Senator Menendez introduced more recently covers only poker.  

Q. What’s so special about poker, and why is poker being treated differently than sports betting?

A. Follow the money.   The poker sites poured a bunch of money into lobbying and marketed it beautifully, making it look like a grassroots effort by enlisting the support of poker players all over the web.   Hiring former Senator from New York Alfonse D’Amato as spokesman/lobbyist was a shrewd move.  Meanwhile, the NFL has spent boatloads of money lobbying against sports betting.  There’s no similar organized effort for sports betting.  

Delaware has legalized sports betting.   Governor Jack Martell signed legislation permitting it and The First State’s Supreme Court has determined that betting on individual games, as well as parlays, will be legal.  Operations are scheduled to be in place by the start of the football season. With table games on the way this winter, Governor Martell estimates that $50 million in fresh revenues will hit the state’s coffers in 2010.

The wagering will take place through Delaware’s race tracks, which have become “racinos” in recent years with the addition of slot machines.  The betting will take place on the premesis (no apparent provision for phone/online) and the racetrack will act as the bookmaker. 

Obviously, the Delaware racinos welcome this opportunity to attract new bettors.  In a press release, Delaware Park COO Bill Fasy said “We believe that the single game sports lottery, with a proper betting line, will provide an exciting entertainment option for our guests…” 

(Presumably, the use of “a proper betting line” was a great relief to sports bettors who feared that an improper betting line would somehow find it’s way into use at Delaware Park.)

Is Delaware Ready? Do the racinos and politicians of Delaware know what they’re doing?   They better.   But both the regulators and those who will be taking the action are a long way from having things ready to go, and even knowing how things will work.  Nobody in Delaware is prepared to answer questions on what kind of bet offerings will be available and what the limits will be.   It is also unclear whether the state will collect tax money based on volume of wagering or profitability.

And chances are the folks in Delaware are overestimating the profitability of their sports betting operation. One unpleasant aspect for the house is the opportunity to lose.   Bookmaking is a skill, and risk management is imperative to a proper sports betting operation.   And bettors in target markets may already have more convenient options.

Let’s take a look at some things that could lead to Delaware sports betting being a disappointment.

Unattractive Propositions: Does a “single game sports lottery” include not only sides but totals, money lines, teasers, buying points, etc.?   While there will be more money bet on sides than anything else, people are used to betting on the other offerings. Delaware better have a well-rounded product offering, because they have more competition, and potential competition, than they realize.

Potential Legal Competition:  New Jersey governor John Corzine is suing the federal government to repeal a law that makes sports betting illegal for all but four grandfathered states (Nevada, Delaware, Oregon, and Montana) that have had sports betting in the past.   Of those states only Nevada has had full scale betting.  The others simply had parlay card offerings.  Opinions are mixed as to how serious New Jersey is about this, but they certainly want to protect Atlantic City wagering interests.   And Pennsylvania is keeping an eye on things as well.  Rather than a long-term exclusive, Delaware could have merely a head start on sports betting.

Quasi-Legal Competition: Bill Frist’s celebrated “slide it into national security bill” legislation that supposedly made offshore wagering illegal (it actually addressed banking, not the actual gambling) has had little effect on those who actually want to bet.   Plenty of people are still betting at offshore sports books and poker rooms as some foreign entities and even banks have picked up the slack for American banks who can no longer transfer funds into the online operations.

Illegal Competition With A Technological Edge:  Legislation targeting funding of offshore wagering has been a boon for illegal bookies, with many who left the business now back in the game.  A majority of those bookies now offer online wagering for their customers via service bureaus located outside the US.   Bets are made online or via phone, then the weekly settling up occurs, as it traditionally has, at the local tavern. Delaware’s sports betting relies substantially on Philadelphia and South Jersey players.  Will players enjoying the convenience of playing online on credit feel compelled to make the trip to the actual sports books to put their cash on the counter?

Poor Management Leading to Losses: Both government and racino types are used to their betting having a guaranteed 17%-25% (depending on the wager) skimmed right off the top of each mutuel pool in horse racing, as well as a guaranteed cut for the house programmed into each slot machine.  There is no such mathematical certainty built into sports betting.

While making bettors lay $11 for every $10 they are trying to win gives the house a good head start, winning as a bookmaker is no sure thing.  Online and Nevada bookmakers have found that out the hard way.   Consistent winners betting big money have shut down the occassional poorly managed offshore sports book and have led to tremendous consolidation among Nevada sports books.  Knowing that sports books require active and intelligent management to win, casino companies take all their properties in Nevada and turn them into affiliates of a central book, cutting the overall costs of operation and putting their (theoretically) best talent in charge of the overall bookmaking.  But even those steps have not led to a surge of profitability for Nevada bookmakers.

Smart bettors can overcome the 52.38% poinstpread winners needed to win money from the bookmaker.   And there are smart bettors who make money on a regular basis by doing so.    That’s part of the dance required to set the proper wagering limits.  It’s tough to manage the risk of the smart bettors while welcoming the unsophisticated action of the weekend plunger. 

The fact that Delaware sports books could have periods of time where they don’t only not win, but lose, is a part of sports betting history in the state. As Mike Wilkening of Pro Football Weekly dug up, the original parlay offerings in the state of Delaware were shut down suddenly in late 1976 after bettors took advantage of arbitrage opportunities created when the Delaware lines and those in Vegas differered significantly.  It is likely that lines weren’t adjusted to account for what was late season injury/weather information.   This is the kind of mistake that is unlikely to be made in the information age, but there are a lot of new ways for sharp bettors to beat up on sports book mistakes.

Will Puny Profits Lead to Patience or Panic? Bettors in Nevada actually beat the casinos with their basketball wagers in the month of April.  This shows that while earnings are highly likely, there will be fallow periods for the sports books.   Winning streaks against the spread by local favorites like the Eagles, Giants, and Penn State could lead to losses for periods of time.   Are the racinos ready for that?   And if the contribution to the state is tied to profitability, how will state officials react to less revenue than is projected?  

Some Nevada casino operators consider sports betting a convenience to their guests, knowing that the sports book is likely to earn less per square foot than any other part of the gambling floor.  On the other extreme is Bally’s in Las Vegas, whose palatial sports book sits empty, closed down for not earning enought money.  Which view will prevail in Delaware, and will that view be the same for both the racinos and the state?

Success Is No Lock: The legalization of sports betting in Delaware is far from a slam dunk for the state.  It will take solid bookmakers backed by patient management and understanding state government regulators to make it work.  Count me among the sports bettors looking to put them to the test this fall.