More Bad News for Bodog

When an item in the company’s local paper, the Vancouver Sun, leads with “The Bodog online gambling empire continues to crumble,” it is certainly a good time to keep your balances low and avoid further deposits.

This time it is a marketing support company critical to Bodog’s operations laying off 200 staff members.   Last month it was a Forbes report that $24 million had been confiscated from Bodog controlled American accounts by U.S. government.

I’m told that the withdrawal process from Bodog is currently taking some people over a month.  While much of the online wagering world continues to prosper out of the limelight, the spotlight that marketer extraordinaire Calvin Ayre drew to the company over the past few years continues to bring Bodog attention that they don’t desire today.

Radio Daze: Dallas Tuesday, Portland Wednesday

Later this morning (Tuesday) at 10:50AM Central (11:50 EDT) I’ll be on the venerable Norm Hitzges’ show in Dallas. Here’s a little handicapping broadcasting history for you…back when Norm was handicapping college football on ESPN he had what was likely the most prodigious lengthy win streak in broadcasting history, going something like 27-4 to conclude the 1993 college football season. Norm has been at the forefront of the Dallas sports media for decade and he knows more than a little about the wagering world. Appearances with him are always rollicking good fun, so listen in on 1310 The Ticket.

On Wednesday at 7:05PM Pacific Time (10:05PM EDT) I’ll be on the Wheels After Work program with Ken Vance (Ken’s co-host Brian Wheeler is off tomorrow) on Portland’s 95.5 The Game. I don’t know Ken, but maybe I’ll phony it up and pretend we’re old friends (the way radio people do) just to try to throw him off.

August 19th, the First Day of Football

Today’s the first day of the football season. It is for us here anyway. We’ve actually been buried in football preparation for a while now, and starting today and going forward we’ll be sharing some of that here with you.

So what kind of preparation takes place? Original work, first. After doing my own work all summer, I actually just bought a few of the annuals in the last couple of days. I prefer that my own opinions are not unduly influenced by those of others. So it is interesting to see how the conclusions I reach differ from others (let’s play out the season before handing the Lombardi Trophy to the Vikings, please). But then again, I’m looking at different factors.

I’m really not interested in what team is going to finish ahead of what other team in the standings, I’m looking for teams that are going to be overrated or underrated heading into the campaign from a betting perspective. I couldn’t be any less interested in the Heisman Trophy (until the pursuit of it becomes a slight pointspread factor in a few games late in the season), while many have great interest in the goings on of the New York Athletic Club. So some of these annuals are more valuable to me than others.

Last year I saw the 49ers as an underrated team (remember the young talented Niners ready to burst on the scene?)…until I saw that everyone else considered them to be that way as well. And then they went from underrated to overrated in my mind, based just on public perception. In addition to the aforementioned Vikings, now that the Jets have picked up Favre, they suddenly may have a little too much expected out of them as well.

The one annual you must have if you’re looking to do statistical work in the college and pros is Marc Lawrence’s Playbook Annual. I’d say that even if I didn’t offer a slight contribution to it. What’s especially strong about Marc’s is that it contains both college and pro in the same book. I also like the alphabetical listings. I understand the thought of breaking things down by conference and division, but in oft-used handicapping resource I far prefer alphabetical.

For college personnel information obviously Phil Steele’s book is tops and Blue Ribbon is good, too. I’ve hardly done a comprehensive view of the marketplace but Marc, Phil, and Blue Ribbon will all be references for me early, while I’ll use Marc’s book throughout the year as well due to the ease in finding past statistical data for both college and pros.

There’s such saturation coverage of the NFL these days I wonder if there’s even a need for an NFL annual anymore. Fantasy football has brought it all to the forefront. NFL information is common currency. That’s helpful to the handicapper in that everyone’s following the same narrative, creating a groundswell of opinion providing greater value than ever before to the contrarian thinker.

So there’s some light thoughts on preseason preparation and some of the widely available football resources. If you’d like a copy of my Maximum Profit Football Annual (and you’re not already on our mailing list) listing a few overrated and underrated teams, visit FootballAnnual.com to claim your free copy.

Sports Betting Notes (And Horses Too)

The state of Delaware is considering the addition of a sports wagering component to their state lottery. It would probably be a hideously unfavorable parlay card offering of some sort. Despite the fact that it would only be available in 1954 of the nearly 3,600,000 square miles in the United States, the NFL is coming after this thing guns blazing, with a full page ad in a Delaware newspaper against the proposal.

The Preakness seems a walkover after the performance of Big Brown in the Kentucky Derby, but there are a couple of things that might make it worth checking out the past performances on Saturday.

Steve Crist of the Daily Racing Form pointed out earlier in the week that only 6 of the 14 odds-on Preakness favorites in the last 50 years have won the second jewel of the Triple Crown.

Additionally, the seeming overconfidence of Big Brown’s trainer Richard Dutrow before the Derby is gone, and Dutrow seems pretty realistic heading in this race. One of the horse’s owners expects him to bounce off the huge Derby effort. Dutrow admits that Big Brown won’t run as well on two weeks rest, though he does consider him to be the likely winner based on the lack of competition.

It is still tough to see Big Brown getting much of a challenge, but anything could happen, and that’s why they run around the track.

Straw Hats, Chris Berman Missing From Augusta National “Velvet”

Tiger Woods was a solid +130 favorite to win the Masters this week, but more than any other tournament it seems like the big star is the golf course, and in this instance the golf club as well.

With a membership so exclusive that even zillionaires like Wayne “Caddyshack” Huizenga aren’t invited, Augusta National certainly carries an air of mystery. Steve Hummer’s piece on Augusta National Chairman Billy Payne provides some insight to the place.

Apparently Augusta National membership provides an opportunity for powerful tycoons to have their choice of clothing critiqued. Disapproving of a straw hat worn by a member, Payne lets him know about it. The hat wearing member is surely a millionaire titan of industry experienced in having people ask for altitude parameters when he asks them to jump. Yet he reacts to the style reprimand by meekly removes the chapeau. You have to believe that he’d likely be a bit more assertive, but there’s something about Augusta National membership that makes these guys swoon.

Interestingly, it is made clear in the article that the welcome mat was not exactly out for Chris Berman to participate in ESPN’s coverage of the first two rounds of the Masters. That explains the paucity of Steve Miller Band references as well as why you aren’t hearing the first round leader at Augusta National “Velvet” referred to as Justin “Time” Rose “Bowl.”
Enjoy the Masters.

Kansas vs. Memphis Statistical Nuggets

Is it just me or does it look like the ESPN panel expects Bobby Knight to pull out a weapon and start shooting at any moment? Jay Bilas looks positively terrified.

Let’s look at a few items of pointspread interest pertaining to the Kansas/Memphis championship game.

  • the public strongly favors Memphis and the over. The openers were Kansas -1.5 and 144. Now Memphis is a 2-point favorite and the total has been bet up to anywhere from 147.5 to 148.5.
  • After going a typical (for them) 37-67 (55.2%) from the line in the first two rounds, Memphis’ free throw bugaboo has disappeared. Against Michigan State, Texas, and UCLA, the Tigers have drained a phenomenal 76-94 (80.8%) from charity stripe.
  • The extent to which Derrick Rose is taking over is not being overplayed. After taking 10 or more shots in only 2 of Memphis’ previous 7 games, Rose has double-digit shot attempts in all five tourney games.
  • Rose has 17 points or more in every NCAA tournament game. He hadn’t scored 17+ in more than two consecutive games since doing so in Memphis’ first four games in November.
  • Rose missed a media session Sunday with an upset stomach, but practiced on Sunday night.
  • Kansas has shot 50% or better from the field in 25 games this year. Memphis has done so only 12 times.
  • Only once all season did an opponent outshoot Kansas. In a 59-55 loss to the Jayhawks on December 2nd, Southern Cal shot 38.5% to Kansas’ 37.9%.
  • Russell Robinson (14/16) and Sherron Collins (15/17) both have fewer assists than turnovers in the tournament.
  • You’ve seen their offensive highlights, but it is worth noting that these are the two best defensive teams in the country, with Kansas allowing only 37.9% shooting, while Memphis permits opponents only 38.7% from the field.

Enjoy the game.

Horse Bettor Seeks to Conquer Argentina

Every 18 years, Andrew Beyer journeys to the Southern Hemisphere in an effort to become the dominant horse betting force in his host country. Beyer’s work ethic is legendary, but shouldn’t he have noticed the 29% takeout and small wagering pools in the midst of his year of research into Argentinian racing?

Wall Street, Bettors, Cheer Spitzer’s Demise

The New York Stock Exchange erupted in cheers upon hearing of the demise of New York Governor Eliot Spitzer, who’s dalliance with a high-priced hooker is now part of the public record. Sports bettors with long memories likely share Wall Street’s sentiments.

Until Bill Frist snuck UEIGA through in the final 20 minutes of the 2006 Congressional session, attaching anti-gambling legislation that couldn’t get passed on it’s merits, Spitzer was the most effective regulatory opponent of online sports bettors and poker players. It was Spitzer who pressured the banking industry to the point where it became very difficult to fund wagering accounts with credit cards.

No love for the bullying Spitzer from this corner, but it is tough to celebrate when you think of his three lovely daughters and the ordeal that their hypocritical and self-righteous father is putting them through.

On The Radio: Leroy’s Sports Hour with John Kelly

Don’t know what I’ll talk about, as I hate the Thursday basketball card, but I’ll be on John Kelly’s “Leroy’s Sports Hour” this afternoon for a half hour or so some time between 2PM and 3PM Pacific (5PM to 6PM EST).

The show airs on KENO 1460AM in Vegas and KPLY 630AM in Reno. If you’re not within Vegas or Reno radio range, listen online here.

Super Bowl Betting News

The New York Times mentions the rarely mentioned, how some of the founding families of the modern NFL made their money in horse betting (the Rooneys of Pittsburgh) and bookmaking (the Maras of New York).

Sunday’s game may be the first 9-figure Super Bowl in Las Vegas. Nevada casinos are hoping for the first $100,000,000 wagering handle, spurred on by a New York team vs. a team going for a historic undefeated season. Of course the overall handle will be many times that.

Our Vegas radio buddy John Kelly’s hometown newspaper in Chicago shares his expertise.

We’ll have plenty of Super Bowl stuff, including prop information and analysis, later Friday and all weekend long.

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