Business Week reports on a sports betting hedge fund out of London seeking to raise 50 million euro in chunks of 100,000 euro (a euro is equivalent to $1.27 US). 

Centaur’s Galileo Managed Sports Fund is not really a sports betting fund, it’s more of a sports trading fund, as the fund, for reasons not apparent, closes out their positions on London-based betting exchange Betfair before their winning plays go final in most instances.  Strikes me that they’re purchasing an insurance policy that they’re overpaying for, but I’m sure they have their reasons.

While there is no evidence that these guys have an edge that will last, at least they can take a shot.  Regulators would not likely look favorably upon such an enterprise in the US.  But even if approval were to be granted,  there’s no question that such a fund wouldn’t succeed in the US, even in Vegas, as there is a gargantuan difference between the vast European sports trading market anchored by Betfair and the thinly traded American sports betting market.  There are opportunities for Americans with the right contacts to bet substantial amounts on football, basketball, and baseball, but the high limits don’t occur until closer to game time, by which point the sharps have taken the value out the best bets.

In the States even large Vegas and online sportsbooks are running scared with low limits on a great many propositions.  If you don’t know what I’m talking about, go to Vegas and see the look you get from a sports book manager when you try to bet $500 on a baseball game on the overnight line, or get a bet down on a college football total on a Wednesday, or bet more than a couple hundred bucks on a hockey game.  While smart individuals can carve out a nice living betting, the casino corporations would very quickly cut off access to a sports betting mutual fund having any level of success on their way to a nine-figure bankroll. 

The exchanges are different, as similar to the Chicago Board of Trade, they permit bid/ask person-to-person wagering with a small commission in the middle.  With London having a long tradition of sports betting, Betfair’s low commissions generate substantial liquidity and opportunity. 

And sorry, no, you can’t bet through Betfair from the US.   Well, unless you get a cashier’s check from………you know, I really shouldn’t shouldn’t write about that, should I? 

Incidentally, few realize it, but Mark Cuban was not serious when he suggested the establishment of a sports betting mutual fund a few years ago.   He was not looking to launch such a vehicle, instead, Cuban was making a point.  He was merely comparing the shrouded-in-secrecy financial markets with the vast amount of information available on upcoming sporting events. In the financial markets you have cooked books, accounting tricks, and sunshiny revenue forecasts.  Compare that with the analysis of a sporting event, complete with legitimately generated stats, published injury reports (allowing for Belichickian subterfuge, of course), and video of past performances readily available.

It’ll be interesting to see if the Galileo Managed Sports Fund works, or if it just a bunch of wannabe sharps creating a great new opportunity for Britain’s smartest bettors.   But unlike here in the States, at least they have a shot.

One of the greatest publicity gambits you’ll see has struck again.  Irish bookmaking firm Paddy Power has paid off backers of Republican Scott Brown in the special election to replace the late Ted Kennedy in the US Senate.  

Unless you could project their press releases in advance, there is no way to profit from this, and even then Paddy Power doesn’t take bets from US citizens online.   I just admire the clever gimmick.   How much are Irish bettors putting on this election to start with?   Any limited exposure that the firm has as a result of Brown’s possible loss is more than made up for in the publicity that exposes them to folks who live in jurisdictions that have more enlightened laws on online gambling than we do here in the states. 

Paddy Power gimmicks haved a long history, as you can see in this 2003 article.

Good craic, Paddy Power.  Good craic, indeed!!

Giants NFL’s #1 Defense: It may surprise you to learn that the NFL’s top defense is the Big Blue stop unit of the New York Giants, who are on an 0-4 straight up and pointspread streak.  In fact, the NFL’s #1 defense allowed their last 4 opponents to average over 33 points per game before their bye week. 

It’s true.  The NFL ranks their defenses by total raw yardage allowed per game, and the Giants permit opponents to gain only 274.4 yards per game, 3 yards better than the #2 Steelers D.   If you’ve seen the Giants play, you understand this to be a crock, and more accurate stats prove that.  The Giants allow 5.1 yards per play, which is 12th in the league and sounds about right based on their good start and poor recent play.  Amazingly, the NFL’s “#1 defense” is the leagues #21 scoring defense.  

What’s going on here?  Turnovers for one.  Giants opponents have gotten some cheap points.  The other aspect is that Giant opponents have run only 482 plays, which is 48 fewer than anyone else in the league has faced.  Does that speak to the pace of the game?  With several Giants games being blowouts with little urgency late does that contribute the slow pace?   Whatever the reason or answer, it’s odd.  

Quirky Schedule: The Giants and their “#1 defense” host the Falcons in the swamps of Jersey.  Atlanta has lost 3 of 4 and is just as desperate as the Giants. If it seems like Atlanta’s on the road a lot, you’re not imagining things. Falcons season ticketholders probably envisioned being at more than two home games between September 20th and November 29th.  Bettors can sometimes get an edge by downgrading the importance of statistics generated by teams that have played nowhere but on the road, though that concept is not a tight fit right here, as the Falcons did open with a pair of home games.

“Year of the Favorite” Update: The 10-4-1 performance by NFL dogs (six outright upsets)  brings the underdog record to 40-25-2 over the past five weeks.  And yes, that includes the ”week of the favorites” last month, which saw chalk go 9-3-1, allegedly almost blasting ”Vegas”, the euphamism for the sports book world, to smithereens.

Why does everyone say “Vegas” when they talk about the sports betting industry?  I have never seen a legitimate estimate from an industry person or academic authority that sports betting in Vegas makes up any more than about 2% of the market on sports betting.  I’d be surprised if it was 1%. So why “Vegas”?

One Terrible Bet: The one push that we list this week should actually be a favorite cover for Minnesota supporter with a clue.  The Vikings, who were 16.5 all week long, beat the hard-tryin’ Lions 27-10.  If you waited until the weekend to bet Minnesota at -17, you need one of two things, a new hobby, or some educatin’.   If the latter is your answer, you can find what you need here.

Great Moments in NFL Television: The TV time outs just kill NFL games when you attend them in person.   Fox left the Cowboys/Packers game for the first quarter intermission with a official review under way.   When viewers came back, the play had been reversed and 20 seconds put back on the clock.  A punt followed, and Fox ran their change-of-possession commercials at the 10 second mark.   One play later it was the end of the first quarter and….you guessed it….an encore performance of the “end of the quarter” TV time out.   And if you were annoyed by the three full commercial breaks on TV for 20 seconds of “action”, imagine how the fans sitting on their hands in Green Bay felt about the matter.    Incidentally, this was just a few minutes after Fox’s Curt Menifee had reported in a cut-in that the Eagles led the Chargers 14-7 when in fact the Chargers led 7-0.  The error was corrected by Fox a minute later.

Bad Team News: How does a team turn things around?   In their initial five losses, the Titans lost turnovers 18-8.   In their three straight wins, the Titans have won turnovers 8-0.  In other “we got off to a dreadful start” news, befitting their position in the standings, Oakland and Green Bay combined for a stout 0 for 18 in 3rd down conversions in the first half on Sunday, improving drastically in the second half by combining for 3 for 13 on those key plays.

Underdog Home Improvement: Another sign of Vegas and online sports book health is the performance of home dogs.  Sports books are usually rooting for road favorites to fail, and they’ve failed lately.   Home underdogs have battled back from their dreadful start and are now 21-24 to the spread.  

NFL: Phone Your Million Dollar Lobbyists: The newly elected governor of New Jersey will need to make a decision about whether or not New Jersey should get involved in a lawsuit against the Federal Government designed to free states up to make thier own decisions regarding sports betting.  The struggling Atlantic City casinos fear an exodus of players to Delaware for their new offerings, which include NFL parlay and teaser betting.

Thanks for reading this far.  We had a nice 4-0 NFL card this past weekend on my late phone service and are about to start basketball, which is annually a profitable venture, particularly in November/December.  If you want more information on these services call 770-649-1078.

Underdogs went 10-3 last weekend in the NFL, with a miracle dog cover by the Chiefs and popular favorites Saints and Patriots failing to cover by a point each.  Only the Steelers, Falcons, and Seahawks (barely) covered as favorites, and 7 underdogs won outright.  It was a big underdog week.

So can we finally, once-and-for-all dismiss the whining of the Las Vegas bookmakers about the surge of favorites two weeks ago?   Yes, I know favorites went 9-3-1 that weekend.  Yes, I know a lot of people hit parlay cards.   But in the other three weekends in the past month the favorites have combined to go 13-27. 

By one count, favorites are now 64-63-1 on the season, meaning a $110/$100 bet on every favorite would have a bettor down $530.  So much for the “Year of the Favorite”.

Monday night’s game was pretty strange. Denver dominated the first half from the line of scrimmage, but they trailed 7-3.   The Steelers had the one big play of the half with an interception return for a TD from midfield.  The Broncos had a 183-54 yardage edge at halftime.  Steelers won yardage in the second half, 321-59, winning in blowout fashion.   How can two solid, well-coached team each throw in such a clunker of a half at the same exact time that the opponent is performing so well?   

In the two prime time games this week, Kyle Orton and Jay Cutler, the two principals in the most celebrated QB trade of the summer, combined to throw 0 TD passes and 8 interceptions.  Since their bye week the Bears are 1-4 and Cutler as 6 TD passes and 12 interceptions. 

A lot of people will tell you that yards per play is the most important stat in football.  No real disagreement here.  So tell me how the ascendant Bengals are permitting opponents to outgain them on a yards per play basis (gaining 5.5 yards per play and allowing 5.6) while the disappointing Packers are outgaining opponents by almost a yard-and-a-half per play (6.3-4.9)? 

The Packers are one bizarre team, you would think that outgaining opponents by almost a yard-and-a-half per play while being #2 in the league in turnover margin would have them sitting at 7-1 or 6-2.  Nope, they’re 4-4 straight up and against the spread.

If you like to bet good teams as big underdogs, the 6-2 Bengals are a 7-point dog at Pittsburgh.

If you like to fade bad teams as big favorites, the 2-6 Titans are a 7-point favorite hosting the Bills.

I’m not saying that you shouldn’t be annoyed by the hype for the Patriots/Colts Sunday night game, but the only other contest between likely playoff teams is the Bengals/Steelers game.   The loser of the Chargers/Eagles game will be 5-4 and the playoffs may be difficult to make.

Good luck this weekend.

David Carruthers has withdrawn his guilty plea. The British sports betting executive was brought into Costa Rican sportsbook conglomerate BetOnSports in 2001 to be CEO.  Carruthers was part of an effort to legitimize the “American facing” company by BetOnSports founder Gary Kaplan.  The effort succeeded, for a while.  The company went public in London and Kaplan took out a total of $96 million out of the public offering and subsequent stock sales.   

The Feds cracked down on the BOS principals in 2006. Carruthers was arrested while changing planes in Dallas on a trip from London to Costa Rica.  Kaplan was found in the Dominican Republic a short while later.  Several other BetOnSports associates were also arrested.

Now that Kaplan has agreed to a plea deal, Carruthers has withdrawn his guilty plea from last April.  Carruthers has been residing in a St. Louis hotel for several years now as this case has drawn on.   Was he led to believe that he would be released for “time served”?  And has time been served here? Although not incarcerated, he has been subject to electronic monitoring, and is not free to come and go as he pleases.

In a case that has been sporadically covered by the St. Louis media, there have been no reports on a court hearing that was scheduled for yesterday.   We’ll nose around a little bit in the upcoming days to find out what’s going on here.

The NFL led a lawsuit that successfully (for now) has stopped Delaware’s plan to offer single game sports betting. They say their concern is to protect “the integrity of the game”.

Yet the owners of the Cleveland Browns and Tampa Bay Buccaneers actively promote betting on the NFL, even on and against their own team. Both the Glazer family (Bucs) and Randy Lerner (Browns) own Premier League soccer clubs that call these bookmaking firms their “betting partners”. And NFL broadcaster Fox Sports is owned by News Corp, which owns 39% of Skybet, an online bookmaking firm that offers a full menu of NFL betting action.

Details are in this video.

If you can’t see the video above, try this link.

The way the NFL sues Delaware to stop an activity their owners are actively promoting is curious. Yet if the State of Delaware brought any of this up in defending their plans for single-game sports betting against the NFL it is a well-kept secret.

We’ll have more information on the NFL and Delaware sports betting later this week.

Plenty of notes from the first full weekend of NFL and college football.

1. “Sports betting” began this weekend in Delaware with plenty of problems.  Long lines due to the need of managerial overseers in Vegas to approve bets.  You really need approval when you’re paying 5.5-1 on 3-teamers when industry standard is 6-1 and books have made money at 6.5-1?     Much more on the issue of NFL betting in Delaware this week, so come back to RealWorldSports.com for more.  
2. If you had the Duke/Army game under the total, avert your eyes.  Duke CB Leon Wright picked off Army passes and returned them for TD’s on consecutive plays with 1:48 and 1:32 remaining.  The second score put the game over the total.  Army’s 6-10, 283 pound slot receiver (not a misprint) Ali Villenueva then caught a TD pass on the game’s final play to round out the scoring for the 35-19 final
3. Thaddeus Lewis is a well-regarded QB for Duke and became only the second Dookie to notch 50 career TD passes (first had to be Ben Bennett, right?) in the win over Army but was pulled for ineffectiveness. (5-16 for 60 yards).  But Lewis is back in the lineup and Sean Renfree (7 for 8 in relief) will again be the backup this week according to Duke Coach David Cutcliffe.
4. Jim Tressel’s catching a lot of flack in Columbus about his time management and overall game strategy.   The end of the first half could have been clock managed better.  On the other hand, trusting his defense at the end of that game instead of kicking a long, long field goal gets little questioning from this corner.  But that offensive game plan sure was stodgy, wasn’t it?  Pryor doesn’t seem comfortable or confident, or at least he didn’t on Saturday night.
5. And speaking of that unimaginative offense, who would have thought a week-and-a-half ago that Buckeye types would be suggesting that maybe Ohio State could take a lesson from Ann Arbor? 
6. Sports handicapper Matty Baiungo has isolated a “pure fade” of a team that he’s going against again this week.  His opinion is supported by some solid statistical analysis as well. It’s one of 10 fully analyzed plays in the Maximum Profit Football Weekly. and you can subscribe to “The Max” for a little more than $6 per week through the Super Bowl by calling 1-770-649-1078.
7. “Game Story Line of the Week” comes from Desmond Conner of the Hartford Courant in his gamer on the ugly UConn/North Carolina matchup.  Of the Tar Heels, Conner wrote, “if that was the 19th ranked team, this is going to be a bad year for college football.”
8. Syracuse’s road loss to Penn State was a rarity.  No, not that the Orangemen lost (though they are playing a lot harder than they did under Greg Robinson). It was a rarity because it was an actual road game.  SU’s second game on the road doesn’t take place until November 7th when they visit Pitt.
9. Georgia’s been losing offensive linemen left and right the past few years, including stud OT Trinton Sturdivant last week. Now the injury bug has hit the other side of the ball.  Senior defensive end Rod Battle is out of the year with an ACL tear.   This certainly doesn’t help the Dawgs, but UGA’s pass rush has been lacking the past couple of years, and this gives a young player a chance to step up.
10. A football bettor needs to make sure he’s getting full effort from the team he backs, and Colorado’s defense absolutely looked as though they quit on Dan Hawkins Friday night. Toledo notched over 300 yards both passing and rushing, with the total damage hitting 624 yards.   Despite that, Hawkins is likely to last the season due to the $3 million buyout required by his contract.  Apparently the Buffs athletic department isn’t sitting on a pile of cash right now.  Hawkins suggested that he had a potential 10-win team on his hands in the preseason, which is reminiscent of Jim Donnan saying “I’ve waited my whole life to coach a team like this,” before Quincy Carter’s disastrous final year at Georgia.
11. Technical handicapper Dave Fobare has a college play out of an angle that is 46-12 with the average cover margin of a stout 9 points per game.   It’s one of 10 fully analyzed plays in the Maximum Profit Football Weekly. You can subscribe to The Max for a little more than $6 per week through the Super Bowl by calling 1-770-649-1078.
12. Talking to the press after Florida State’s narrow escape against 1-AA Jacksonville State, Bobby Bowden repeatedly referred to Jacksonville State as “Troy”.   The explanation that Bowden warned his team all week about how this game set up so similar to FSU’s narrow win over Troy a couple of years ago does make some sense. But the feeling persists that both FSU and Bowden would have been better off had the coaching legend step aside five years ago.  
13. Monday night was a bookie’s dream, particularly those who get a lot of “Favorite Freddies” playing and who had players with open teasers rolling into Monday night.  Both ugly dogs cover, with the Bills and Raiders keeping the Patriots and Chargers from covering teasers.  But neither dog wins outright in case there was some big money line action working on the dogs.  Nice night to be on the 11 side of the 11-10.
14. When a team turns the ball over 7 times in their opener, after turning the ball over 6 times in their playoff loss last year, the quarterback is going to take some heat.   But John Fox points out that the offensive line gave Jake Delhomme no chance on Sunday.  Jim Johnson must have been proud looking down on his Eagles defense.
15. How meaningless is preseason football?  The Eagles and the Falcons both looked lousy defensively all preseason long.  Yet they caused a combined 11 turnovers (4 ATL, 7 PHA) and dominated the opposing offenses.
16. If you think turnovers revert to the norm, you must be all over the Panthers plus the points at the Falcons on Sunday.   You’ve got the team that suffered a 2-7 turnover deficit taking points from the team that benefited from a 4-0 turnover edge.
17. Yeah, those who bet the Chiefs at any price, including the closing +13, have every right to bitch after seeing a late game 24-24 affair turn into 38-24.  But Baltimore’s yardage edge was 501-188, so you can’t complain too loudly.
18. Earl Bennett didn’t have a single catch last season.  But the Bears wideout has the advantage of having been Jay Cutler’s teammate at Vanderbilt.  Bennett was thrown to 13 times by Jay Cutler on Sunday night, catching 7 of the balls, his first career catches.   Was Bennett simply being ignored by the Packers or is the familiarity a crutch for Cutler?  In any event, after Cutler looked so great in the preseason, those 4 INT’s were a killer for Chicago.  
19. The NFL Network’s Deon Sanders is serving as a mouthpiece for his former agent, Eugene Parker.  Sanders claims that two teams were interested in trading for Michael Crabtree’s rights.  But San Francisco Chronicle reporter John Crumpacker properly labels Sanders’ claim as “ridiculous” , informing us that it is past the deadline to trade for the rights to a rookie.
20. Any collegians coming out into next year’s draft should cross Parker off their list of potential agents.   With the NFL’s slotting system, a rookie holdout is preposterous, yet Crabtree is asking for more money than those drafted several places ahead of him.  This holdout could well be a career killer.
21. Fawning coverage of Brett Favre’s performance on Sunday, yet he didn’t have to do much and what he did he didn’t do well.   When your team is running for more than 6 yards per rushing attempt and your opponent has to react to that, you should be averaging a lot more than 3.3 yards per pass attempt as a team.
22. A team that came a few seconds from winning the Super Bowl is visiting a team that was 5-11 last year, yet the homestanding 0-1 Jaguars are a 3-point favorite over the visiting Cardinals.  That line will likely only go up from there.  You never would have seen a Super Bowl taking points to a below .333 team in Week 2 a few years ago.
23. Oddswiz.com tells us that offshore sportsbooks handled the opening week rush pretty well.  Site crashes used to be the norm for unprepared online sportsbooks.  But things were pretty smooth last weekend.
24. I was in a sports bar/restaurant on Saturday night and there were two audible groans within a few minutes of each other when scores flashed showing that Florida State came back against Jacksonville State and Maryland pulled it out in OT against James Madison.   People just love the plucky little underdog, although JMU would undoubtedly blanch at such a characterization.
25. My colleague Erik Scheponik has an NFL play based on some strong matchup analysis that’s also supported by a 15-2 trend.   It’s one of 10 fully analyzed selections in the Maximum Profit Football Weekly.  Subscribe to The Max for a little more than $6 per issue through the Super Bowl by calling 1-770-649-1078.

Thanks for reading this far.  Good luck and be careful.

Here’s a look around the football wagering world as we head into the opening week of college action.  No mentions of anyone named Favre or Kiffin, so come on in.

1. The NFL is playing 16 exhibition games this weekend, largely by guys who will hit the waiver wire over the weekend.  Meaningful players will be rested.  Fans will pay full season prices. 
2. In 15 of those 16 games, the line is 4 points or less.   Lone exception? The Jaguars are favored by 6 over the Redskins after Washington announced that Daniel Snyder would be playing QB for the ’skins.  
3. Welcome to “I told you so” time for some political types in Delaware, who are dusting off a 6-year old report that projected single-game sports betting would not gain legal approval. 
4. This week word came that Delaware parlays must be three-teams or more, just like it was for their three-month foray into sports betting back in 2006.
5. Phil Fulmer wants to coach again.  But only at a place that’s committed to winning championships.  Fulmer told this to his CBS College colleague Tony Barnhart.  Barnhart kept a straight face for the sake of their working relationship. 
6. Underachieving former powers usually underperform to the pointspread.  Surprisingly Tennessee actually went 6-6 against the spread last year, a season where they went 5-7 straight up.  Fulmer’s Vols actually went 16-9-2 to the number the  two years before that.  Those numbers startled me.  I guess I just picked my spots well going against him. 
7. Big 10 types are always playing the “disrespect” card, but they seem to disrespect themselves with their opening week scheduling.  Four Big 10 outfits play 1-AA teams and the rest are all favored by 7 or more.  Minnesota at Syracuse and Illinois’s neutral site affair with Missouri are the only games with lines in the single digits.  Everyone else is a double digit home favorite.
8. The SEC has a surprisingly tough opening week, with half of their teams playing away from home, including road games South Carolina at NC State, Georgia at Oklahoma State, LSU at Washington (looked tough when it was scheduled), and Alabama taking on Virginia Tech in Atlanta. 
9. I like TJ Simers of the LA Times, and not just because he doesn’t like Rick Neuheisel either. “It’s usually a waste of time listening to anything Rick Neuheisel has to say…” the column begins.  And not a lot of newspapermen would ask “Why do you hate Mitch Mustain?” to open Pete Carroll’s press conference.   
10. The up, up, and away betting action on Oklahoma is due to more than just the Sooners’ Obama-like transcendence, BYU has a lot of guys nicked up and playing hurt.
11. The up, up, and away betting action on Cal is due to more than just revenge.  Maryland is not a seasoned club. 58 of their 85 scholarship players are redshirt sophomores or younger.
12. The up, up, and away betting action on UTEP is due to more than just the season-ending injury to Buffalo RB James Starks (1300+ rushing yards in ‘08).  Buffalo enjoyed monumental good fortune, outgaining only 4 of their 13 opponents yet winning the MAC thanks to a 34-14 turnover advantage.
13. The up, up, and away betting action on NC State is due to more than just the enormous QB edge that the Wolfpack enjoy in the game.  South Carolina has two starting defensive linemen lost to suspension.
14. Laying 110?  How about losing 110?   You can’t research Maryland football without being told ad nauseum about Ralph Friedgen’s weight loss.   The Fridge started at 401 and is creeping down to the low 290’s.   And the loss is non-surgical.   Good for him.
15. Levi Brown was Coach Dave Clawson’s backup QB at Richmond in 2005-06.  Thursday night they face each other as Brown, a star QB for Troy, provides the opposition for Clawson’s first game as Bowling Green head coach.  No real edge in that information, just a strange coincidence.
16. Remember when the world would stop for the titanic Miami/Florida State matchup?   Now it’s simply a game between two clubs who are a combined 38-33 against 1-A opponents the last three years.
17. Another sign of the decline of the ACC is the fact that two-time defending champ Virginia Tech, with 15 returning starters, is an underdog by nearly a TD to an Alabama team returning only four offensive starters.
18. Since Navy hired Paul Johnson away from Georgia Southern, Army’s been vanquished by their hated rival 7 straight times by a combined 274-71.  If you can’t beat ‘em, why not join ‘em?   Army has hired the most innovative run-based coach in 1-AA football in Cal Poly’s Rich Ellerson, who has significant family ties to West Point.
19. This week’s college card has pretty even pointspread distribution.   11 games have lines of 6.5 or less.   9 games are lined between 7 and 13.5, 12 contests have spreads from 14 to 20.5, and 8 games are lined at 21+.
20. The biggest spread of the week is Texas -41.5 over Louisiana-Monroe.  Mack Brown used to take the air out of the ball in second halves of blowouts, but you can’t do that if you’re poll watching.   The Longhorns went 5-1 against the spread when favored by 24+ last year.
21. Oklahoma State’s QB Zac Robinson was reported out of the Georgia game by a blogger on Wednesday afternoon.   The rumor was vehemently denied by Cowboy types, but that didn’t stop some sports books from taking the game off the board until things got cleared up.
22. Former staffing pointspread ramifications as Utah hosts Utah State on Thursday night. You’ve got to wonder if the Utes will have any inclination to run the score up on their former defensive coordinator Gary Andersen (not the former kicker, not the former football handicapper).  USU is a “big dog with more returning starters” play, as the Aggies have 17 starters back to only 11 for the Utes, which is probably why the line has been creeping down just a smidge.
23. Safe to say that no Michigan coach has ever had a more important game against a MAC opponent than Rich Rodriguez has against Western Michigan Saturday.   This team knows that they have the fate of their coach in their hands.   How will they react?
24. It’s not too late to subscribe to The Maximum Profit Football Weekly newsletter.   Five thoroughly researched selections are in this week’s edition and then it’ll be 10 plays a week (a mix of college and pro) until December.  Then every college bowl and NFL playoff game written up. Additional bonus information throughout the week.  And you can get it for just over $6 an issue. Call 770-649-1078 to subscribe. 
25. It’s also not too late to get our Maximum Profit Football Annual with the “go with” teams, the “go against” outfits, and the interview with offshore sportsbook authority www.Oddswiz.com who has offered online analysis of the offshore sports book industry since 1994.   And by the way, using those “go with” and “go against” teams in the way suggested by our “Full Season Value Strategy” left readers with a 40-21 (65.5%) pointspread record for the 2009 college and NFL season.   Visit www.FootballAnnual.com for your free copy.

Good luck and be careful.

Are we ever going to see reasonably intelligent coverage of sports betting in the media?  When a smart guy like the National Football Post’s Michael Lombardi tosses out something this flawed, I begin to give up hope.

Lombardi analyzes the direction of the NFL Super Bowl futures market by comparing early odds to more recent odds, but he keeps on referring to “odds” without answering the question “odds on what?”.  Apparently, he is talking about odds against winning the Super Bowl.   But it never actually says that, which could confuse a lot of readers.

Lombardi also doesn’t specify what his source is for the data.    I assume it’s Las Vegas Sports Consultants, but a better way to do this would have been to survey five different major books in Vegas and get an average of their odds, or maybe list the best available price.  After all, you can’t actually make a bet through LVSC, and you won’t find any odds board completely mimicking their prices.  The sports book directors have to take a 20-1 shot and make it 18-1 to make themselves appear necessary.

But the most obvious flaw, as pointed out by readers commenting on the article, is to judge the marketplace on “points” of his own creation.  Incredibly, New England’s being bet down from 6-1 to 4-1 is “2 points” while Seattle being bet down from 60-1 to 40-1 is “20 points”.    The decrease in return on risk is obviously identical , with early bettors enjoy a 50% higher return than current bettors in both instances.   But because Seattle is more of a longshot they get the “20 points” in moving from 60-1 to 40-1 while the Patriots get only “2 points” for being bet down from 6-1 to 4-1.

In fact, the Patriots move is significantly more substantial from the perspective of money wagered.  It doesn’t take a ton of cash to make a skittish sports book drop a 60-1 shot down to 40-1 but there’s clearly stacks of greenbacks backing the Pats at 6-1, 5-1, and 9-2 to get them down to 4-1.

A better way to do this would have been to analyze the season wins over/under market, as there is a lot less bookmaker profit built into those (any futures board with the Chiefs 40-1 to win the Super Bowl and the Browns 50-1 has a hell of a lot of juice built into it).  Season wins bettors have the opportunity to bet “yes, I like this team” or “no, they’re going to disappoint”, which means that the moves up and down are meaningful.   In a futures market sometimes the oddsmaker will move someone lower and then balance it off by moving someone higher on little more than a whim.   For instance, one of the more confident moves in the season win totals market is the suggestion that the Bengals are going to have a big year.  Yet in this survey Cincy is 75-1 early and 75-1 late. 

The ordinarily savvy Lombardi’s piece on the way the money is flowing in the NFL futures market is a good concept, but is poorly implemented.  As Lombardi admits, he has little gambling knowledge, and clearly (like most folks) he is mathematically challenged as well.  Lombardi is well worth checking out on non-betting issues, like his Sunday notes columns, but he needs to put a little more effort into any future wagering related columns.

A federal appeals court shocked everyone yesterday by yanking the rug out from under Delaware’s plan for single game sports betting.   The three-judge panel decided that Delaware (state motto: Our Lawyers Suck) could only offer parlay bets, and not single game wagers as planned.  They also have limited the wagering to the NFL.  In their infinite wisdom, the jurists interpreted the 1992 federal law banning sports betting except in grandfathered states Nevada, Delaware, Montana, and Oregon as limiting Delaware to the wagering options they offered before 1992.  Delaware offered a few months of NFL parlay card betting in 1976.

The governor and state officials are understandably upset, as are officials at the three Delaware racetracks that are in the midst of multi-million dollar renovations to turn portions of their facilities into Vegas-style sports books.

Delaware politicians who were counting on a revenue boost were stunned by the unexpectedly far-reaching decision. Fortunately for these officials, I have their solution, it’s called “The First State Parlay.”

Delaware is permitted to offer parlay wagers on NFL football, but not single game wagering.     So why not create a parlay that comes as close to possible as mimicking single game wagering.  Here’s how it works.

The “First State Parlay” requires the bettor to pick one team at the prevailing pointspread.   That team must win to complete the first leg of the parlay.   The bettor then picks a second game where they are allowed to move the line 47 points.   The bettor must lay 11 to 10 odds on his parlay bet.  11-10 is the standard for single-game wagers in the sports betting industry.  

Let’s show an example of how the “First State Parlay” would work.  In the first week of NFL action, let’s say Vinnie Cheesesteak from Philadelphia wants to drive down to Delaware Park to bet $110 to win $100 on his beloved Eagles at +2 over the Panthers.    He must combine the Eagles at +2 with a second game that he gets to move 47 points, so he takes the Bears, currently a 3-point dog, at +50  over the Packers.

If the Eagles cover +2, and the Bears can stay within 50 points of the Packers, Vinnie Cheesesteak wins $100.  If the Eagles don’t cover the spread he loses $110.   If either game lands right on the number it’s a push, and his stake is refunded, no matter the result of the other game.

While this comes very close to replicating single game wagering, by stipulating that the second leg of the parlay can be moved by 47-points, and no more, Delaware can claim that there is still an element of chance.  In the playoffs following the 1999 season the Jacksonville Jaguars hosted the Miami Dolphins in the what proved to be the last NFL game for both QB Dan Marino and coach Jimmy Johnson.  If you took the Dolphins from +7.5 and moved them 47 points to +54.5, you would have lost your bet by a half-point when the Dolphins were filleted by the Jags 62-7.   

Is the “First State Parlay” an obvious workaround to try to turn single game betting into parlay betting?   Yes.   But it seems to fit into the new parameters set by the court.  Delaware should hire some new lawyers and have them consider it as a potential solution.  

We’ll have more on the legal issues regarding sports betting in the days ahead, as well as in the Maximum Profit Football Annual 2009, which will be released this week.   Visit www.FootballAnnual.com to arrange for your free copy to be sent to you.