You almost certainly haven’t seen this. Because it happened in a sport that has been completely marginalized due to the incompetence of the management (hey, let’s have two consecutive Breeders’ Cups run on plastic instead of dirt!), fecklessness of the regulators, and dishonesty of the participants. This is so much more impressive than anything that happened in football last weekend.

A three year old filly (that’s only three years old, and a girl) went up against the best older males in the sport at the challenging distance of a mile-and-an eighth. Watch what happened.

Rachel Alexandra dueled for the lead in a vicious first quarter of 22.85 and was being pressured all the way around the track. The early pace was such that two of the older colts that pressured her, Da’Tara (won the Belmont last year) and Cool Coal Man (won a minor stakes at Saratoga by over a dozen lengths last out) faded to last and next-to-last.

Rachel Alexandra turned back those challengers and led down the stretch. But closers loomed, particularly Macho Again, an accomplished 4-year old multiple graded stakes winner (won last year’s Grade 2 Jim Dandy at Saratoga, as well as this summer’s Grade 1 Stephen Foster at Churchill Downs). At about the 1:47 mark on the video above, Macho Again is absolutely going to win the race.

Yet Rachel Alexandra, pressured all the way around the track, somehow digs down and guts out a final eight in 12.81 seconds to hold on to win one of the premier races of the year for older horses.

I spend too much time on football and basketball to really follow horse racing carefully. And I understand from my horse buddies that the older handicap horses aren’t exactly a vintage group. But when you consider all the factors at play here, from Rachel Alexandra’s youth, to the fact she was a filly racing against older colts, to the pace pressure that she got early, culminating in the way she grimly kept on going to win, it may have been the greatest athletic performance we’ll see for quite some time.

Rachel Alexandra created the kind of moment that turns people into fans of a sport. But people have to see the moment, not just the simulcast feed, but reaction shots, the excitement of the crowd, post-race interviews when the emotions are still high, etc. What a shame that Rachel’s Woodward triumph was buried way up the dial on MSG+. Fortunately some folks who were there have shared some home video. But what a shame that this remarkable performance was so hard to find. And what a missed opportunity for a declining sport.

Investing in the Preakness: If you like horse racing, and I look  for every opportunity to like horse racing, these are dark days.  So enjoy the Preakness.   After our post-basketball writing vacation, we’ll be back here next week covering a myriad of events in the wagering world.   Those topics will include the sorry state of the former Sports of Kings.  

The Preakness, which has a compelling narrative, is a rare bright day in the horse racing world.  Rachel Alexandra is a great story.  Sure, she beat nothing in the Kentucky Oaks, but she was also asked for nothing.  And it isn’t as though these 3-year old colts are a deep group.   So Rachel Alexandra can win.  But at 6-5 or even money?  Not with a filly facing a ton of pace pressure in a full field of colts.   She may win.  But the narrative and the story line will create very short odds on the filly, which suggests a contrarian look elsewhere. 

Enjoy the Preakness. 

Did you know that when Congress passed anti-sports gambling legislation years, ago, it didn’t apply to Delaware?  Along with Nevada, the state was grandfathered out of the ban due to an ill-fated legal parlay card program that existed for a little while in “the First State”.  Some in Delaware want to take advantage of that exception and are clamoring for sports betting to keep up with a feared exodus of revenue from the state now that Maryland has legalized slots.

Of course with Republicans largely (but not entirely) responsible for legislation limiting online wagering, the entire issue may be revisited at a federal level now that revenue-hungry Democrats control the Senate, House, and White House triumverate.

I’ve got some “teams that start 0-4″ underdog angles in the NFL, as the public doesn’t want to back these teams, opponents tend to let down against them, and, in theory at least, the players should be motivated to turn their season around.  But the Houston Texans are a very odd example of an 0-4 team.  After their 0-4 start, Houston has won 3 of 4, yet are only 1-3 against the spread in those games. While most 0-4 teams are getting copious points, the Texans were actually favored games 5, 6, and 7, as their offensive talent maintained the respect of bettors who realized that the Texans had a tough schedule early and deserved favoritism at home over bad teams like the Lions and Bengals.

The Cleveland Browns keep finding new and innovative ways to lost ballgames, as we saw on Thursday night.  Tough to see Romeo Crennel lasting there.   Crennel inadvertantly gave the Broncos some bulletin board marterial when Denver picked up on the Browns’ coach saying “we’ll beat Denver” as a way of cutting off some reporter’s questions about his quarterback change in a news conference. Broncos defensive lineman Ebenezer Ebuban said, “All week we were keying off what Romeo Crennel said about how the Browns were going to beat us. In that fourth quarter, we told everybody, ‘Hey, can’t let him beat us.’ So thanks to Romeo Crennel.”

“Poll position” may not be as meaningful as you think among top-ranked college football teams in November. As tempting as it is to say “this team will destroy their opponent to impress the pollsters,” the end of the season simply hasn’t worked out that way all the time. The teams that made the last four BCS Championship games have a combined 13-17-1 pointspread record in their last four regular season games (Florida had a non-lined game against Western Carolina late in 2006).  And those were the teams that succeeded in making it to the championship game.   Interestingly, the only team of that octet that had a winning spread record is the one that has earned the fans utter disdain, as last year’s Ohio State Buckeyes closed 3-1 to the number.

The Breeders’ Cup handle was up only marginally despite the increase from 11 races to 14 and much better weather this year.   But that handle did include the money of one Marian Hinnant.  Hinnant, a juror on Alaska Senator Ted Stevens’ corruption trial, bailed on deliberations with the story that her father had passed away.   In fact, she had a plane ticket from Washington DC to Los Angeles to see the Breeders Cup and simply didn’t want to miss it.

Good luck this weekend.  And be careful.

Congrats to the Phillies and their classy fans for their World Series win. If you had a side bet on the rain-shortened Game 5 of the World Series, you had action despite the suspension of the game with the score tied 2-2.  Nevada gaming rules stipulate that when a game is suspended after five innings or more of play, the wagering result is based on the last completed full inning.  The Phillies led 2-1 after the fifth, so Phils bettors win. The victory was limited to side bettors, however.  Totals and runline wagers require the road team to bat in the top of the ninth, and as such were “no action” on Monday night.

Weather was responsible for the strange stats out of the games played at both Army and Navy on Saturday.  A windy, rainy day gave Navy a big advantage over pass-happy SMU in the 34-7 Navy win.  Total yardage was 404-144 in favor of the Middies, and that 404 yards resulted from 77 snaps, all of them runs, and not a single pass.  Army overcame a 4-1 turnover disadvantage to beat Louisiana Tech 14-7 due to a rushing edge of 203-68 and a defense that with the help of the elements held the Bulldogs to 9 first downs.

There’s a high bar for retired numbers at West Point.  Pete Dawkins,  a Brigadier General and Rhodes Scholar, in addition to being an all-time Army football great, had his number retired in the wind and rain at West Point on Saturday, a full 50 years after winning the Heisman Trophy.

The Titans are terrific, 7-0 both straight up and against the spread.  Showing that they do all the little things right, Tennessee has actually been outgained in three of their last four games, yet continue to both win and cover.

Looking at the Breeder’s Cup results, Jeremy Plonk suggests that when drug policies and testing has some teeth, the European way of training is superior enough that American horses have little chance.

Steve Crist of Daily Racing Form was the handicapper/bet structurer in a promotion for the Albany regional OTB where bettors who gave the OTB $2500 or more in action in September and October could share in a pick six ticket.  Crist hit with his $5,000 ticket, and the $65,000+ payout (including consolation payouts) was shared by 41 patrons who bothered to show up in Albany on Saturday. Crist, called “King of the Pick Six” for his acumen with the bet, also had an identical ticket for himself.

While everyone’s talking about how weak the Pac Ten is, nobody’s talking about how close Oregon State came to dealing both USC and Utah their only losses.  A week after their USC upset, the Beavers had a late 7-point lead in Salt Lake City but couldn’t seal the deal.   Having to replace their entire front seven on defense, the Beavers struggled to an 0-2 start.  But since a loss to Penn State that doesn’t look all that bad in retrospect, Oregon State has covered five straight, and are an outstanding three-loss team.   Bettors have noticed the Beavers, as OSU was a big early week mover from an opener of -12.5 to -15 against an Arizona State team that has lost five straight.  In their last four games the Sun Devils have been beaten by 89 yards and 642 points, though the competition was stiff (Georgia, Cal, USC, Oregon).

In the investment world Oklahoma State athletics benefactor T. Boone Pickens was a genius until recently, but has since become an idiot, with his funds losing around $2 billion since energy prices peaked. Conversely, Boston Red Sox owner John Henry was an idiot, but has recently become a genius. After years of drawdowns and redemptions, Henry’s funds have been slaying it during the recent market volatility.

Why was new 49ers coach Mike Singletary so unhinged on Sunday?   When you win yardage 388-261 against an opponent that has been outscored 97-33 the previous three weeks yet lose to that opponent 34-13 due to sloppiness and carelessness, the new coach gets pretty pissed off.  And who can blame him?  Underperforming Fricso is 7-17 against the spread since the start of last season.

For 12 fully analyzed and researched football selections each week, subscribe to my Maximum Profit Football Weekly for only $7 per week.  Call 1-770-649-1078 for more information.  When you subscribe this week’s 8-page pdf newsletter will be emailed to you immediately.

Good luck this weekend.  And be careful.

In a misguided effort to draw celebrities to the track and make it seem like a bigger event, the Breeders Cup has decided to hold the event both this year and next year at Santa Anita.  In the shadow of the San Gabriel Mountains, Santa Anita is gorgeous, but from a sporting perspective, there’s a problem.

Santa Anita has a lovely turf course, but they run what would traditionally be dirt races on the synthetic ProRide surface.  A lot of horses who do well on dirt don’t take to synthetic tracks, so if you’ve got a horse in it’s prime that does well on dirt but not on the fake stuff,  tough luck for you. For the next two years your championship hopes are eclipsed so that horse fans and television viewers can bask in the glory reflected from the likes of Tom Arnold, Jamie-Lynn Sigler, Gabrielle Union, Michael Clark Duncan, and Freddie Rodriguez.  (No, I don’t know who most of them are either, but the San Diego Times-Union tells us they’re famous).

Another way they’ve messed with the Cup is adding a number of divisions. Are there that many horses itching to go longer than a mile and a quarter that a dirt marathon (or in this instance, a non-dirt marathon) is necessary?

Friday is now “Ladies Day” and after a quarter-century of being known as the Distaff the sport’s premier race for older fillies and mares is now going to be known as the “Ladies Classic”.   Apparently this will draw huge throngs of fans to the sport who can’t be bothered to take 10 seconds to learn that “distaff” has traditionally been a term for races for fillies and mares.

I guess that something needs to be done to get some traction in the sports world on a football weekend. But the Cup is such a great event, why dilute it with these changes?

Now none of this means that there aren’t some great betting opportunities.  A lot of quality horses means that some of those quality horses go off at great prices.  There will be horses that figure prominently that pay boxcar mutuels when they win and with full fields, the exactas can be huge.  When I last checked a couple of years ago a win bet on every single Breeders Cup horse in history was still returning slight profits.  Yep, the number of longshots that win overcome the takeout.

My horse handicapper Dan Branham has been blistering hot in graded stakes action all year and if you want to subscribe to his selections for the weekend call my office at 770-649-1078.  Friday’s first race goes at 3:35PM Eastern Time.

I’ve heard a lot of my horse buddies complaining about the lack of quality in horse racing these days. New York tracks have tons of state bred races. Even at Saratoga, they have to card turf sprints (horses that don’t have enough speed for dirt sprints nor enough stamina for traditional turf routes) to get full fields. California tracks have a storm of 5 and 6-horse fields as well, even at Del Mar.

A quick look at the Wednesday Saratoga entries illustrates the problem. Races 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7, are all maiden races. In other words, there will not be a horse that has won a race racing at Saratoga between 1:02 and 4:55 tomorrow afternoon. I realize that the 2-year old maiden special weight races can be strong up at the spa, but only Race 7 is one of those. Half of that sextet are claiming races.

If this is the premier race meet in America, what are the other tracks carding?

Obviously, it would be exciting to have a Triple Crown winner, but I’m not rooting for Big Brown tomorrow. The connections make it nearly impossible to consider this horse any kind of “feel good” story.

The Trainer: A few years ago, I was getting some pretty good information from a horse racing source in New York on horses that improved form with no rhyme or reason. The commonality in the selections were a pair of trainers, and one of them was Rick Dutrow. It didn’t take a cynic to suspect that pharmacology helped these horses as much as anything else the trainer could do.

Having been suspended at least once a year in every year of his training career, Dutrow’s reputation for dishonesty is well-earned. With drug use by horses having weakened the breed as well as adding an overriding element of uncertainty and dishonesty to the sport, a trainer with the past (even recent past) of Dutrow doesn’t deserve the honor of training the first Triple Crown winner in 30 years.

The Owner: Another New Yorker had alerted me to Big Brown’s dishonorable owner a while back, and the media is finally paying attention. David Evans of Bloomberg did a fine job deconstructing the disreputable history and shady aspirations of Big Brown’s owner Michael Iavarone. Investors in Iavarone’s horsey hedge fund should arrange for their certain-to-follow binding arbitration in advance.

I’d love to see a Triple Crown winner. But it would be desirable to have the connections of that winner not leave a nasty trail of slime in their wake as they enter the Big Sandy winner’s circle following a sweep of the Triple Crown.

The state of Delaware is considering the addition of a sports wagering component to their state lottery. It would probably be a hideously unfavorable parlay card offering of some sort. Despite the fact that it would only be available in 1954 of the nearly 3,600,000 square miles in the United States, the NFL is coming after this thing guns blazing, with a full page ad in a Delaware newspaper against the proposal.

The Preakness seems a walkover after the performance of Big Brown in the Kentucky Derby, but there are a couple of things that might make it worth checking out the past performances on Saturday.

Steve Crist of the Daily Racing Form pointed out earlier in the week that only 6 of the 14 odds-on Preakness favorites in the last 50 years have won the second jewel of the Triple Crown.

Additionally, the seeming overconfidence of Big Brown’s trainer Richard Dutrow before the Derby is gone, and Dutrow seems pretty realistic heading in this race. One of the horse’s owners expects him to bounce off the huge Derby effort. Dutrow admits that Big Brown won’t run as well on two weeks rest, though he does consider him to be the likely winner based on the lack of competition.

It is still tough to see Big Brown getting much of a challenge, but anything could happen, and that’s why they run around the track.

I love the fact that the speed horses have all drawn outside in the Derby, and I’ll be betting against the favored Big Brown. This 20-horse race with huge exotic pools is one you can really justify spreading out in. Let’s take a look at every horse.

In post position order….

1. Cool Coal Man won at Churchill in the fall, but threw in a clunker over the track in the Kentucky Jockey’s Cup. Perfect at Gulfstream, and if you throw out his Bluegrass run over the Polytrack you can make a case for him. Beyers a bit light, but has won three of four from the inside post.

2. Tale of Ekati scored a nice win in the Wood, but is 3 for 3 at Belmont, 0 for 3 elsewhere. Trainer Tagg is great in graded stakes races, with a $2.76 return for every $2 bet.

3. Anak Nakal will be a long, long price, and justifiably so based on recent form. I know a smart guy who gives him a chance, but this horse has been 5th, 7th, and 8th in three races this year. Won here last year.

4. Court Vision won a Grade 3 here in October. Seems slow, but if you’re looking for deep closers, this is likely one.

5. Eight Belles is a filly and has never run against colts. Trainer Larry Jones is highly successful in the southwest, but this is the big leagues. But another smart guy I know likes her.

6. Z Fortune’s second in the Arkansas Derby may be as impressive as anything anyone has done here, as he was four-wide around both turns, losing a ton of ground.

7. Big Truck will be one of the longest shots on the board. Won the Tampa Bay Derby with a 93 Beyer but everything else has been 87 or less. Will need a fast race that falls apart because this closer just isn’t that fast.

8. Visionaire is a live longshot and was the only horse making up ground late in the Bluegrass over the Polytrack. Previous four races were all impressive and trainer Matz won here with Barbaro.

9. Pyro will likely be the third betting choice despite the horrendous clunker in the Bluegrass. If you toss that race due to the Polytrack (which everyone seems very willing to do) this horse is the most likely winner of all the closers.

10. Colonel John won the Santa Anita Derby, and the winner of that race is always a threat. But this horse has never raced on dirt before, with all six races over synthetic surfaces.

11. Z Humor has been 3rd, 4th, and 5th this year after earning $543,700 as a two-year old. Will be close to the pace, which I don’t like to see.

12. Smooth Air finished second to Big Brown’s monstrous performance in the Florida Derby after winning the Grade 2 Hutcheson New Year’s Week. Trainer Stutts not used to this level. Makes up ground in the stretch and tough to toss out.

13. Bob Black Jack has led every step of the way in all three of his wins, which is nearly impossible in this race. Obviously talented but as never raced on dirt (get used to California contenders with nothing but synthetic experience).

14. Monba only raced twice all year. Fountain of Youth was a disaster before winning the Bluegrass over Polytrack. Pletcher famously poor as a trainer in this race. Can you trust the Polytrack performance?

15. Adriano ran ninth in his only dirt race of his career, but you have to figure that Prado had other options and he’s on this one’s back.

16. Denis of Cork seems too slow but has won 3 of 4 lifetime and made up over 20 lengths in his Southwest win at Oaklawn. Calvin Borel won this one last year up the rail.

17. Cowboy Cal is a speed-oriented horse used to racing on turf and Polytrack.

18. Recapturetheglory paid $33.80 in the Illinois Derby but seems a need-to-lead horse and is surrounded by speed.

19. Gayego won the Arkansas Derby in his only dirt performance. Veteran jock Mike Smith knows this race and will try to avoid being right on the lead, preferring to rate just behind the pace. Has a shot if he can avoid getting caught up in the outside speed.

20. Big Brown ran monsters in all three of his three career races, but is obviously light on experience. Plenty of speed outside along with him. Don’t trust Dutrow in the big leagues and will play against him and hope the pace cooks him.

Why bet before a horse race when you can wait until it has already started? Seven and a half years after the 2002 Breeders Cup Pick Six scandal led Andrew Beyer to write about widespread assumptions among horseplayers that races were being past-posted, Bloodhorse.com reports that there are still documented instances of wagering after the start of horse races. And who knows how many go undiscovered or are swept under the rug by track and tote officials who don’t want to upset the apple cart?

Lexington, Kentucky bettor Mike Maloney has been conducting a one-man crusade to correct this situation. Maloney points out that tracks do not record the time that gates open to the second, it is only reported to the minute. In the Bloodhorse article linked to above, Maloney correctly comments “that this could happen this deep into the simulcasting age is just mind-boggling.”