Ordinarily smart people are informing me of some weather related unders that are supposedly good plays in today’s college football and Sunday’s NFL.

But just because a forecast calls for some rain and wind at some point, if it isn’t happening during the game, it really doesn’t matter.

Let’s look at games supposedly “in the path” of Tropical Storm Hanna.  The weather is the current forecast for the three hours while the game is being played.

Buffalo at Pitt: Few showers 11 MPH winds.

Oregon State at Penn State: Showers, 9 MPH winds.

Georgia Tech at Boston College: Few showers, 9 MPH winds.

West Virginia at East Carolina: Greenville was hammered overnight but gametime here is 4:30 PM. Few showers, wind starting at 24 MPH and down to 14 MPH by the end of the game.

Ole’ Miss at Wake Forest:  Winston-Salem is west of Greenville and didn’t bear the brunt of the storm.  Mostly cloudy, 16 MPH.

UConn at Temple: Rain, 8-14 MPH winds.  Storm cranks up later this afternoon, after the game.

Rams at Eagles: Sunny, 10MPH winds.  Strorm that hits after Temple game is long gone by 1PM Sunday.

Chiefs at Patriots: Partly Cloudy, 10MPH winds.

While you can make a case that the East Carolina/West Virginia game might be a weather play, things may clear up there as well.   The first half under may be the best play in that one, so keep an eye on that game as the telecast comes on.  Maybe keep an eye on the winds at Wake Forest as well.

Overall, however, there’s been a real overreaction to the potential weather implications in many of these games, by people who just couldn’t be bothered to take the time to find out what the gametime forecast would be.

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The NFL kicks off Thursday night, and quite frankly, you don’t have a clue.

Oh, you think you have a clue.  You’ve probably spent a good bit of time this summer studying the NFL.  You’ve looked at roster moves, at quarterback depth charts, and at young players ready to emerge.  You’ve poured over draft rankings, and have looked at starter-on-starter performance during the preseason.

And that goes double if you’re wasting your time participating in a fantasy football league.

But there’s a problem.  All your hard work is for naught.  You have absolutely no idea what’s going to happen.  After all, people with more knowledge than you, a more significant football background than you, and a direct line to decision makers around the league, have no idea what will happen.  So how could you?

I present to you ESPN’s panel of experts predictions prior to last season.   These journalists, analysts, and commentators cover the league full time. Several played in the league, and played well.  Yet they had no clue last season.  Just look at their 2007 NFL projections.

The Giants won the Super Bowl last year.  Yet all 12 of ESPN’s experts predicted that the New Yorkers would not even make the playoffs.

The Giants won at Green Bay to win the NFC Championship.  All 12 ESPNers predicted the Packers would not even make the playoffs.

In their first playoff game, the Giants won at Tampa Bay.  All 12 of ESPN’s experts predicted that the division-winning Bucs would not make the playoffs.

Conversely, the panel of experts unanimously projected that the Bears would win their division.  All 12 were wrong, as the Bears finished 7-9 and failed to make the postseason.

All 12 panelists had the Saints winning their division.  The 7-9 Saints failed to even make the playoffs.

In the AFC, the vast majority picked the Ravens and Broncos to make the playoffs.  Neither was even close.   And going back to previous years wouldn’t yield terribly different results, with very smart people making outlandishly wrong preseason predictions in the NFL.

NFL teams are so close in ability, and have so many players and coaches turn over every single year, it becomes a matter of chemistry. And chemistry is exceedingly tough to predict.

Sure, you can look at the Patriots and know they’re probably going to be good.  And you know the Falcons will mightily struggle (though their defense bears some watching), but the vast majority of NFL teams are probably within about a field goal of each other at this time.  Then injuries, player development, chemistry, coaching, and momentum will take hold and we’ll see some separation.

I’ve got a couple of games that I’m looking at in the NFL this weekend.  But I’ll be looking for reasons to be as lightly involved as possible.  In a week or two (and in some instances, in a day or two) we’ll have a much better handle on these teams.  And there’s a long season ahead of us, with plenty of NFL opportunity.

But this weekend we know nothing.  No matter how much you think you know, realize how limited your knowledge in.  As we open a very long season, don’t put yourself in a position to get hurt this weekend in the NFL.

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Each week our team of handicappers scours the college and NFL football landscape to bring you around a dozen selections backed with full writeups on the weekend’s football card.  These games are emailed to you during Monday Night Football, enabling you to get a head start on the next week’s college and pro football card.

This is the 9th year for The Maximum Profit Football Weekly (”The Max”) and in recent years I’ve added handicappers Dave Fobare, Matty Baiungo, and Erik Scheponik as valued contributors to the publication.

This week’s Max was emailed to subscribers last Saturday, and your first copy is ready and waiting for you.  In it you’ll learn of….

• a game in which 69-39 ATS dominance system favors a team that also has nearly a full TD in line value.
• a favorite whose superiority is hidden as a result of a misleading game against this same opponent last year.  That opponent has suffered some serious personnel losses, is changing up their offense, and is ripe to get roasted.
• a cheap shot injury from last season providing one opponent with legitimate motivation today.
• which game should be wipeout time for a favorite ready to pound an opponent that has had a miserable offseason.
• the Sun Belt Conference team that is a live underdog against an overrated team in major transition mode.
• a team led by a talented quarterback who “took one for the team” by playing hurt last year.  He’s ready to explode against an opponent with offensive line personnel that does not fit their new system.
• a rivalry game where the pointspread doesn’t match either the past history or the returning personnel of these two programs.

The Max sells for $199 but is available at the preseason discount rate of $149. We treat our customers (and their privacy) with respect, and we do not engage in any form of telemarketing, nor do we sell our trade your name and contact information.

Subscribe today and the Max will be emailed to you while you’re on the phone with us.  Ask about a special bonus for new subscribers when you call 1-770-649-1078.

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People love to see how the lines move when they first come out.  Those who are ready to bet at the opener are usually pretty informed guys who understand the marketplace.  Certain sports books are willing to take their action, in essence paying for the information of who these sharps like.  The books will then use this knowledge as part of their recipe to determine the “right side” as they try to shade their lines to attract action on from other bettors.   So it makes sense to follow those early moves, right?

In theory, yes.  But here’s the problem.  Some of the moves are false ones.  In recent years a few large bettors have gotten more sophisticated in how they attack the market, and will play a game in the opposite direction of what they like in an effort to get a better number.   A respected group of bettors can play a game at just a few influential sports books at -6 can create a line move in the entire marketplace to -7.  They then bet the underdog much heavier at +7,  getting the number they originally desired via this market manipulation.

There’s an additional reason to take early season line moves with a grain of salt. Opening week in college football (this week) and the NFL (next week) provides a unique circumstance in that a few books have had lines up on these games for a month, while others just post lines six days in advance.  So the moves early in opening week are not on fresh numbers, but on numbers that have been hammered out in the marketplace throughout the month of August.

Trying to determine what sides are the “right sides” based on line moves can be a wise use of a handicapper’s time, but make sure you are aware of the potential of false moves and the unique circumstance of the month-long availability of Week 1 lines.

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If you’re looking to the exhibition season to see how good these NFL teams are, good luck. It is awfully difficult to get a handle on the true strength of NFL teams in the preseason. The action that takes place involves guys who are unlikely to play an important role on their teams, if they even make the club. The second half of these games are often of most interest to Arena Football scouts, as the players have little chance of making it in the NFL.

But the one exception is this week. Coaches want their top players to go through a routine of preparing for a game. They want to give them a little time together to try to regenerate any chemistry that they may have developed the year before. And they hold their breath and hope that nobody gets hurt before they pull them at halftime.

As a result the first halves of the games this week may actually have just a little bit of value for the handicapper who wants to see how these teams stack up. In some cases you may even see teams playing starters vs. starters into the third quarter (to find out you’ll have to check the play-by-play logs if you’re not watching live).

Of course there’s still no Peyton Manning for the Colts, no Tom Brady for the Patriots, and there are other top players being held out of action as well. And the players aren’t stupid, there’s not regular season intensity. But they do try to get some work done this week.

Of course the lack of intensity isn’t the only drawback. Though the starters will be playing, there’s still the issue of not wanting to provide any valuable film for future opponents. So your uncreative offensive scheme matches up against the vanilla defense. But at least this week, in the first half of the games, you’ll have mostly starters playing. And that may be worth paying just the slightest bit of attention to.

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Today’s the first day of the football season. It is for us here anyway. We’ve actually been buried in football preparation for a while now, and starting today and going forward we’ll be sharing some of that here with you.

So what kind of preparation takes place? Original work, first. After doing my own work all summer, I actually just bought a few of the annuals in the last couple of days. I prefer that my own opinions are not unduly influenced by those of others. So it is interesting to see how the conclusions I reach differ from others (let’s play out the season before handing the Lombardi Trophy to the Vikings, please). But then again, I’m looking at different factors.

I’m really not interested in what team is going to finish ahead of what other team in the standings, I’m looking for teams that are going to be overrated or underrated heading into the campaign from a betting perspective. I couldn’t be any less interested in the Heisman Trophy (until the pursuit of it becomes a slight pointspread factor in a few games late in the season), while many have great interest in the goings on of the New York Athletic Club. So some of these annuals are more valuable to me than others.

Last year I saw the 49ers as an underrated team (remember the young talented Niners ready to burst on the scene?)…until I saw that everyone else considered them to be that way as well. And then they went from underrated to overrated in my mind, based just on public perception. In addition to the aforementioned Vikings, now that the Jets have picked up Favre, they suddenly may have a little too much expected out of them as well.

The one annual you must have if you’re looking to do statistical work in the college and pros is Marc Lawrence’s Playbook Annual. I’d say that even if I didn’t offer a slight contribution to it. What’s especially strong about Marc’s is that it contains both college and pro in the same book. I also like the alphabetical listings. I understand the thought of breaking things down by conference and division, but in oft-used handicapping resource I far prefer alphabetical.

For college personnel information obviously Phil Steele’s book is tops and Blue Ribbon is good, too. I’ve hardly done a comprehensive view of the marketplace but Marc, Phil, and Blue Ribbon will all be references for me early, while I’ll use Marc’s book throughout the year as well due to the ease in finding past statistical data for both college and pros.

There’s such saturation coverage of the NFL these days I wonder if there’s even a need for an NFL annual anymore. Fantasy football has brought it all to the forefront. NFL information is common currency. That’s helpful to the handicapper in that everyone’s following the same narrative, creating a groundswell of opinion providing greater value than ever before to the contrarian thinker.

So there’s some light thoughts on preseason preparation and some of the widely available football resources. If you’d like a copy of my Maximum Profit Football Annual (and you’re not already on our mailing list) listing a few overrated and underrated teams, visit FootballAnnual.com to claim your free copy.

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Leisure and football work have been taking turns on our schedule all summer long (ahhh, the benefits of having my Baseball Guy, whose been crushing it with our totals-only service this summer). With August here, it is back to work full time and starting in a few days you’ll be benefiting from that work here.

You’ll want to be visiting frequently all month long as we get ready for some football, providing you with previews, injury situations, personnel changes, and the kind of updated information that the football annuals published in May could never possibly be accurate on.

Visit here frequently in August to benefit from our hard work.

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The state of Delaware is considering the addition of a sports wagering component to their state lottery. It would probably be a hideously unfavorable parlay card offering of some sort. Despite the fact that it would only be available in 1954 of the nearly 3,600,000 square miles in the United States, the NFL is coming after this thing guns blazing, with a full page ad in a Delaware newspaper against the proposal.

The Preakness seems a walkover after the performance of Big Brown in the Kentucky Derby, but there are a couple of things that might make it worth checking out the past performances on Saturday.

Steve Crist of the Daily Racing Form pointed out earlier in the week that only 6 of the 14 odds-on Preakness favorites in the last 50 years have won the second jewel of the Triple Crown.

Additionally, the seeming overconfidence of Big Brown’s trainer Richard Dutrow before the Derby is gone, and Dutrow seems pretty realistic heading in this race. One of the horse’s owners expects him to bounce off the huge Derby effort. Dutrow admits that Big Brown won’t run as well on two weeks rest, though he does consider him to be the likely winner based on the lack of competition.

It is still tough to see Big Brown getting much of a challenge, but anything could happen, and that’s why they run around the track.

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Javier Loya, a minority owner of the Houston Texans, apparently used to gamble a little bit with his employees. Or so says one who is suing him. John McClain’s article doesn’t seem indicate the form of gambling, but others suggest it was something called “Fantasy Football Futures”.

Of course, Loya, an Ivy League football player at Columbia in the early 90’s, can’t hold a handle to the Mara family, who bought the New York Giants with money earned from a bookmaking operation. Art Rooney bought the Steelers with money he made at the horse track.

Nobody should be shocked that sports-minded businessmen are not adverse to having a few bucks riding on the results of a game, whether it is pointspread-related or fantasy football for cash.

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Heavy with Giants money line action, Nevada sports books decided to gamble instead of lowering the money line to even out their action, and the Giants outright victory in the Super Bowl cost them.

Las Vegas sports books not only failed to crack their hoped-for $100,000,000 handle on the Super Bowl, but actually lost over $2.5 million on the game, which attracted $92,000,000 in wagers at sports books in Nevada. Ken White suggests that had the Patriots held on for the outright win, sports books would have cleaned up on those money line bets, winning about $15,000,000 on the game.

Clearly props were a big winner for the house, as they always are. It is surprising that every sports book in town held the line on the money line. You would have thought that one group or property would have looked to offset some of their risk. I know some sharps would have been heavy on the Patriots money line had they been offered the incentive of a low price.

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