First, look to avoid all props that have multiple results possible. Turn the odds into a probability percentage (like 3-1=25%, 4-1=20%, etc.) add them up and some of these things are at 180% (an 80% takeout) or more.   Look to bet yes/no, over/under, team vs. team, etc. You can find good things even with 30 cent lines (the equivalent of -115 on both sides).  The juice built into bets like “first player to score TD” and “margin of victory” is enormous. 

Secondly, take your weak books and compare their props to what the lines are for the same props at strong books that have been hammered over mutliple days.   You can find bets that are -170 at a sharp book that your weak or local book has at -115 for the same prop.  I find good plays every year simply by comparing and contrasting. Good luck in the Super Bowl.

Proposition wagering on the Super Bowl grows in popularity every year, but props are being released extra slowly this year. While some Vegas casinos have finally started releasing them, offshore and online sportsbooks have been a lot slower in getting things cranked up this year.   I had planned on releasing some props to my customers by now, but there just isn’t a lot out there as of yet.   When it comes to posting props, offshore sportsbooks are at least a couple of days behind compared to where they’ve been in past years.

The reason?   Here’s one theory. Offshore sportsbooks largely have a smarter clientele than they did a few years ago when more people were playing online.  The serious bettors are still around, while the casual, less-informed players have largely gone.   So the online sportsbooks want to let the value seekers in Vegas take their shots, and then when the lines get straightened out, the offshores will largely just copy the props they want to have out there.  

We’ll give you a “no-handicapping” prop strategy on Monday.  So keep your eyes open for that and have a great weekend.

A few notes worth noting for those interested in betting on the AFC and NFC Championship games this weekend.

Jets at Colts:

• There was some Colts -7 early, especially laying -115 or so, but the line has been bet up to a flat 7.5.
• The big mover of the football weekend is the total in this game.  Opened at 41, which didn’t last long, now down to 39. 
• When the Colts famously benched their starters in Game 15 they were outgaining the Jets 296-154.
• The Jets are practically a reincarnation of the Super Bowl champion 2000 Ravens.  A ferocious, disruptive, turnover-creating defense, a solid running game, and a quarterback that they’re terrified of trusting.  
• Mark Sanchez, recently compared unfavorably with Jamarcus Russell, has averaged 5.6 yards per pass attempt or less in 3 of his past 4 games, and he has 14 TD passes and 21 interceptions on the season.
• While it’d be nice to have the perpetually injured Bob Sanders around, the remaining pieces of the Colts defense are pretty healthy.

Vikings at Saints:

• The Saints opened as a 3.5-point favorite, which was bet up to 4, and is now back down to 3.5 in most places.
• The total has been a pretty solid 52 in Vegas, but is heading upward in the desert, and has crept up to 53 at some offshore and online sportsbooks.
• The AFC Championship game is not the only game featuring Buddy Ryan’s influence. Both defensive coordinators, the Saints’ Gregg Williams and Minny’s Leslie Frazier, are Buddy Ryan disciples.
• The Vikings were the only NFC team to go undefeated at home, and their last 5 wins have been by 17 points or more.  The road has been a different story, with losses in 3 of the last 4 trips being losses, all by 6 or more.
• The Saints of the first dozen weeks of the season and last week were dominant.  If you can forgive the final month, and there would be reasons to do that, this team something special.
• As fantastic has Favre has been all year, you would think he would come up with a big game, wouldn’t you?  After all, this is what he came back for. 
• The Saints are a lot healthier than they’ve been for a while.  Vikings DT Kevin Williams hasn’t been practicing (knee), but will go on Sunday.

Hopefully, something here at least gave you some food for thought.  While there are only two games in football, we anticipate a lot of value in the basketball this weekend.   Call 770-649-1078 to take advantage of our hard work and experience.

Hopefully something in these notes on the weekend NFL games will help you out in the Divisional round.

Cardinals at Saints. The Saints haven’t played a good game since they wiped out the Patriots on the last Monday nighter of November, and have arguably been outplayed by 5 straight opponents.   They weren’t putting forth great effort in the last couple of weeks,  but there’s got to be a little concern there.  On the other hand, could the Cardinals lack energy after leaving it all on the field in their classic 51-45 OT win over the Packers?  Teams off of wins where both teams scored a lot of points aren’t a positive subset in the NFL.   Saints favored by 7, which has been solid.  The total has been bet up a bit and there are a lot of 57’s around at Vegas and online sportsbooks as this is written.

Colts at Ravens: Ravens certain to want to establish the run, but obviously their 52 runs and 10 passes in New England could be credited to the shape of the game.  And the 47 total points in that one were a pretty high score considering that there was only 464 yards of offense combined for by the two clubs in New England. But no way the Ravens put too much trust in Flacco.   Colts resting hasn’t worked in the past and overall they’ve lost their opening playoff appearance in 6 of their last 9 seasons. Worth noting that each of the last 4 games in this building have seen 44 points or more scored. Colts are favored by 6.5 in most places but some online sportsbooks have it at 6 and the total has been bet down to 44.

Cowboys at Vikings.  Dallas is red hot, and in their 4-game winning streak they’ve outyarded their opponents 1732-1122.  They’ve outgained 7 straight teams and are playing impressively.  Vikings lost interest and tried to keep Favre fresh late in the season, but maintained very strong home performance.  They’re the only NFC team to go undefeated at home and won their 5 home affairs by 17, 26, 26, 20, and 37 (nice effort, Giants).    The line opened at Vikings -2 and has been drifting up to the point where it’s 2.5 minus significant juice and possibly headed to 3.  The total was bet down from 48 pretty quickly and has been at 46 since Monday at Vegas and online sportsbooks.

Jets at Chargers:  The only outdoor game of the weekend is being played in the city with America’s nicest weather and low 60’s and light breezes are expected on Sunday. Interesting matchup as the Jets pass defense and Chargers pass offense are both phenomenally good.  If the Jets ace secondary can slow down the Chargers rangy receivers (all 6-4 or taller) they’ll be one of the few defenses to accomplish the feat.  This is the one game that saw the most action on the side, there were briefly some lines as high as 9 (even 9.5), which quickly came down to 7.5 and now there are a lot of 7’s. The total has been bet down from an early 43 to 42.  If there’s a public side this weekend, the Jets are it.

Good luck in this weekend’s NFL.

Jets at Bengals:  Bengals are favored by 2.5, with a total of 33.5.  It’ll be cold in the Queen City, with temps around 20 during the game.  Wind is not projected to be a factor, but there may be some snow flurries.  Jets are smoking hot, and have the number 1 defense statistically, as well as the number 1 running game.  And those raw yardage ratings aren’t phony, they are also very strong on yards per play on defense as well as yards per rush on offense.  On the other hand, the Jets current streak of 5 wins in 6 games came against 3 losing teams and 2 teams that simply weren’t trying at all.  So how hot are they really?   And only Jay Cutler, with 26 (in 555 passes) had more interceptions than Mark Sanchez’s 20 (in 364 passes). 

Despite suggesting before the game that they would be working hard to play well, the Bengals mailed it in against the Jets last Sunday night.    Tough to ignore how the Bengals were simply manhandled on both lines of scrimmage, but on the other hand, their defense is in the top 10 in both yards per rush, and yards per pass, same as the Jets.   So was the manhandling really a reflection of New York’s physical superiority or simply a lack of effort?  

Eagles at Cowboys: Dallas is favored by 4 with a total of 45.   It’s going to be cold in Dallas, so the roof will be closed.   Left for dead in early December, the Cowboys roared to a dominating three-game winning streak to conclude the season.  Last week’s 24-0 win over this rival was a solid one, as Dallas had a yardage edge of 474-228.  The Eagles were trying on Sunday, and lost the division and a playoff home game as a result.   The Eagles do not own a win over a playoff team, while the Cowboys have not had great success in big games, particularly under Wade Phillips.   Dallas is playing for their first playoff win since 1996.

On the NFL season, betting every underdog is ever so slightly profitable, even with the juice.  This is despite the fact that blindly betting road favorites in the NFL, is also ever so slightly profitable, even with the juice.    Favorites enjoyed a 10-6 mark on the week just past.   The weekend started with the Steelers outright loss at Cleveland.  With losses to the Browns, Raiders, and Chiefs, Pittsburgh has now lost outright as a double digit favorite 3 times in their last 4 games.  Throw in their loss to the Bengals the week before that and you have 4 outright losses in 5 weeks as a better than TD favoirte.  That’s gotta be historic, doesn’t it?

Monday night was a 7/11 game for the Cardinals, 7 turnovers and only 11 first downs.   The Niners got a nice win even though they passed for only 3.9 yards per attempt with a pair of interceptions themselves. Take away the Alex Smith kneeldowns, and the Niners rushed for over 5.8 yards per attempt, which is pretty impressive.  Back to the Cards turnovers, one was a fumble on the final play of the first half at midfield.  No harm done.  It seems as though there should be special categories for turnovers.  A first and goal interception in the opponent’s end zone is debilitating.  But on third and long an interception 45 yards down the field is likely a better net result than what you’d get on a punt on the next play.  I’m sure somebody’s doing a “situational turnover” number.  I just haven’t seen it yet.

Similarly, the Jets/Bucs game wasn’t all that different than the Monday nighter.  The Jets had scoring “drives” of 9, 22, 31, and 7 yards as the Bucs had 3 turnovers and a grand total of 6 first downs in the game in which they averaged 2.2 yards per play.  Not per rush, per play.  First downs don’t always tell the tale, as the Titans had only a 19-15 first down edge in their 47-7 whipping of the Rams.  The Titans had at least 5 plays of 30 yards or more from scrimmage in that game, and any team with the blazing speed and big play ability of Chris Johnson and Vince Young is not going to have a lot of choppy drives.   In fact, their first two TD’s were on a 4-play, 65-yard drive and a 2 play, 82-yard drive.   The Titans/Rams game was an interesting case of a team that started the season 0-6 being favored in a game by nearly 2 TD’s later in the season.   But that tends to happen when a team on a winning streak is facing a team quarterbacked by somebody named Keith Null.

All 12 scoring drives in the Giants/Eagles game were of 59 yards or more.  The Eagles gained “only 374 yards on Sunday night in scoring 45 points.   They were massively efficient, with their 7 non-scoring drives gaining only a total of 15 points.  That does include taking a knee to end both the half and the game, but is still meaningful.  Philly opponents average more possession time than the quick-strike Eagles do.  Yet Rick Gosselin points out that the 2006 Colts were the only team to ever win the Super Bowl without possessing the ball longer than their opponents.  Incredibly, it was as recently as the Sunday before Thanksgiving that the Giants had the league’s “#1 defense” as judged by yardage per game allowed.   Now they rank 15th in the more accurate yards per play allowed, and the New Yorkers have permitted 32.3 points per game over their last 8 contests.

Our newsletter, the Maximum Profit Football Weekly (aka “The Max”) is on a nice hot streak of 59-33 (over 64%) against the pointspread.  Our Bowl Max comes out this week with a full analysis of every bowl game. Every NFL playoff game will be covered as well.  This week’s NFL Max is waiting for you when you call 1-770-649-1078 to subscribe. 

The Packers hot streak is no big surprise.  They have been very impressive both offensively and defensively on the line of scrimmage, and have started to clean up some of their problems, like getting sacked, poor special teams, and being the most penalized team in the league.  Aaron Rodgers has now been sacked only 6 times in the last 4 games and the Pack committed only 4 penalties for a total of 30 yards in their win over the lifeless Bears on Sunday.

I’m told that the sports books in Vegas seem painfully slow lately.  It will be interesting to see what the Nevada Gaming Control Board numbers indicate for the football season.  Online and offshore sportsbooks are still doing better than most realize, though they certainly aren’t enjoying the kind of hypergrowth they once did.   No matter where you’re betting, go beat them this weekend. 

Doubt there’s much “rookie QB vs rookie QB” history in the NFL, but Josh Freeman’s Tampa Bay Bucs take on Mark Sanchez’s New York Jets this week.   So do you play the under due to conservative game plans given to these inexperienced signal callers?  Or will they make mistakes that provide “silver platter” scoring opportunities to their opponents?

San Diego bettors laying 13 or so had to be confident when the Chargers started the 4th quarter with a 2nd and 4 on the Cleveland 34 and a 27-7 lead.  The Chargers had nearly a 200 yard edge in total yardage at the time as well. But the Bolts relaxed with the game in hand and Brady Quinn looked like a superstar to earn the Browns the cover.  Seems to be the kind of thing that happens with some frequency with big road favorites in the NFL.  

Tom Brady’s getting some heat in the media for his uneven performances, but even with a pair of interceptions, when you throw for 352 yards on only 29 passes, it’s not all on you.   The Patriots generated little pass rush in Miami on Sunday and Chad Henne (Chad Henne!) kept attacking the same spots on the field.  It was time to retool New England’s aging defense and they’ve got some guys learning on the job right now.   

Is being inside opponent’s territory nine times yet not scoring a TD an NFL record?  If so, the Rams made a little history in their loss at the Bears. The Rams play hard, their special teams and defense did some good things Sunday, but oooooh, that offense.  St. Louis is inept on the offensive line, beat up at the receiver position, have Kyle Boller as quarterback, and Steven Jackson has lost a step at running back.   Boller had 113 yards on 32 attempts, for 3.5 yards per pass attempt with an interception.  Down 8 inside of 4 minutes, the Rams had the ball on their own 45 and threatened to enter Bears territory for the 10th time all game, but Boller threw his interception on the first play of that drive, effectively ending the ballgame.  St. Louis dominated the punting game, young Welker-esque Texas Tech product Danny Amendola averaged 12 yards per punt return while punter Donnie Jones averaged 45.3 yards per punt and pinned the Bears inside their 20 with 6 of his 7 punts.   That punting helped lead to a rare “no TD but pointspread cover” for an NFL team.

Delaware is introducing some new parlay card options, including a fresh one each Monday night that allows bettors to parlay Monday night football with the next week’s games.  With the requirement of three-games or more, bettors had no reason to check out Monday night football in the First State’s racinos that host the sports betting.  The reason for mentioning the new offerings centers around something called the “Delaware Favorites” card, which keys on the Eagles, Ravens, and Redskins and let’s bettors pick from games over the next three weeks.   Seems like there might be some value there if you like a team to improve or tank, as I’m unaware of other vehicles that allow you to parlay the same teams in mulitple weeks like this.

Have a feeling that NFL bettors who focus on the desperate teams aren’t having productive years.  The 49ers, Falcons, Steelers and Bengals all failed to the spread in those roles Sunday.  The Texans have now dropped three straight in “desperate” situations, and owner Bob McNair hasn’t had the expression of a guy happy with his head coach in recent weeks.  With all the mediocrity in the wild card chase, these situations continue to come up week after week.  

Heading into the Monday Night game in Green Bay, underdogs had enjoyed a 10-5 week against the pointspread in the NFL.   But that’s a result of some games being judged as more-or-less even going to the small dog, as 1-point favorites Houston, San Francisco, and Dallas all failed.  So it lacked the feel of a big underdog week.  

Buffalo is far from the most affluent market in the NFL, so the decision to play a home game each year in Toronto is understandable.  But it seems odd that the Bills would give up home games against divisional rivals like the Jets and (last year) the Dolphins.  It also seems odd that they would give up the advantage of a Thursday night home game, which is a simply awful scheduling situation for the visitor.  The Jets Thursday night win featured a pretty unique statistical oddity of both teams averaging more per run attempt than they did per pass attempt.  The Jets went for 5.8 yards per rush and 4.8 yards per pass.  The Bills ran for 5.1 yards per rush attempt but an anemic 3.1 yards per pass attempt.

Even in big road years, which this has become in the NFL, favorites usually do pretty well in the concluding quarter of the season against the pointspread.   Not that you should be playing every home team, but just something to keep in mind.  

NFL parlay betting has been a qualified success in Delaware, with the state taking in over $800,000 thus far, which is in excess of the $500,000 projected.   But the casino operator who built a large sportsbook based on the expectation of lucrative single game betting is not recouping the hefty investment made.  The NFL team up the road, the Philadelphia Eagles, takes on the Atlanta Falcons Sunday.  We’ve written a lot about how a team’s mental state means a lot down the stretch in the NFL, but injuries matter, as well.  Both of these teams are beat up, with the Falcons missing QB Matt Ryan.  Amazingly, Atlanta’s only starter last season to miss any time with injury was then-rookie offensive tackle Sam Baker.   This season the team has suffered 11 major injuries.  If you’re looking for a difference between this season and last, there it is for you.   And with the lengthy injury lists all over the league, that proposed 18-game schedule looks pretty daunting this time of year, doesn’t it?

Our newsletter, the Max, is 50-30 against the spread over the last several weeks.  The rest of the season, including every bowl game and NFL playoff contest fully analyzed, is only $79.   Call 770-649-1078 to subscribe.

The Saints and Colts are undefeated in two very different ways.   The Saints have scored 24 points or more in every single game thus far this season.  After their brutal 17-15 win over Baltimore, the Colts have now won four games where they scored 20 or less.   The Saints and Colts were a combined 0-6 to the pointspread in the month of November before both covered on Sunday.  Throw in Denver and the three teams that were undefeated on November 1st are now 2-10 against the spread since then.

Nice effort by the Redskins on the road.  As we first wrote about when the Broncos moved into their new building and spoke of a diminished home field advantage in the middle of the 2001 season, these big new buildings don’t always offer a ton of home field edge.  They offer comfort instead of intimidation, and road teams have done pretty well against the pointspread.   The Cowboys are 4-1 straight up at home, and 3-2 against the spread, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if they underperform in Jerry’s Palace as so many other clubs have.  No surprise that discounting pushes, road teams are 86-70 against the spread by one count.

Cowboy CB Terence Newman shoved assistant coach Dave Campo on the bench Sunday, but it doesn’t seem to be a big deal in Cowboy land.  And the issue certainly wasn’t the defense on Sunday.   Statistically the Cowboys offense wasn’t dreadful, gaining 305 yards in 60 snaps.  But you would think this team would score in the first 57 minutes of a game, which it has failed to do in each of the past two weeks, almost by accident. 

The Seahawks gained 4 yards on 13 rushing attempts at Minnesota on Saturday.   And remember, that in the NFL sack yardage is not counted against the rushing yardage. Good thing they proactively locked up that Jim Mora to a deal as an assistant before anybody else could get to him, huh?  Looking at Mora and Cleveland’s Eric Mangini, it probably is not best to immediately scoop up the young coach who has already failed as a head man.  Let ’em get some seasoning back in them. 

If Nevada sports betting is really only down 10% in volume, they should be counting their blessings.  Casino players I know say that the offers to entice them out to the desert are staggering.   People out there the weekend of the Pacquiao/Cotto fight told me that the town was comparatively all but empty. Despite the downturn, expect New Jersey and Delaware to continue to push for full-scale sports betting, as those states remain hungry for revenue.

If someone offered you an over/under total of 33.5 on the Browns/Lions first quarter with no limit, how much would you have bet on the under? Tough push for Packer bettors.  Green Bay outgained San Francisco by 200 yards, earned 26 first downs to only 11 for the Niners, led 30-10 with 11 minutes left, yet only won 30-24 laying 6.  Some smart shoppers could’ve turned it into a win with -5.5, available in spots on Sunday.

I was fortunate enough to go 4-0 in the NFL for the second consecutive week with my Strategic Sports Publishing handicapping service.  In both weeks I went 3-0 with sides and hit a teaser, for a combined 8-0 mark the past two weeks.  This past weekend also had a 4-2 college football week.  If you’re interested in the rest of the football season and/or college and NBA basketball you can call 770-649-1078 for rates and details.

Thanks for reading this far.  Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours.

Giants NFL’s #1 Defense: It may surprise you to learn that the NFL’s top defense is the Big Blue stop unit of the New York Giants, who are on an 0-4 straight up and pointspread streak.  In fact, the NFL’s #1 defense allowed their last 4 opponents to average over 33 points per game before their bye week. 

It’s true.  The NFL ranks their defenses by total raw yardage allowed per game, and the Giants permit opponents to gain only 274.4 yards per game, 3 yards better than the #2 Steelers D.   If you’ve seen the Giants play, you understand this to be a crock, and more accurate stats prove that.  The Giants allow 5.1 yards per play, which is 12th in the league and sounds about right based on their good start and poor recent play.  Amazingly, the NFL’s “#1 defense” is the leagues #21 scoring defense.  

What’s going on here?  Turnovers for one.  Giants opponents have gotten some cheap points.  The other aspect is that Giant opponents have run only 482 plays, which is 48 fewer than anyone else in the league has faced.  Does that speak to the pace of the game?  With several Giants games being blowouts with little urgency late does that contribute the slow pace?   Whatever the reason or answer, it’s odd.  

Quirky Schedule: The Giants and their “#1 defense” host the Falcons in the swamps of Jersey.  Atlanta has lost 3 of 4 and is just as desperate as the Giants. If it seems like Atlanta’s on the road a lot, you’re not imagining things. Falcons season ticketholders probably envisioned being at more than two home games between September 20th and November 29th.  Bettors can sometimes get an edge by downgrading the importance of statistics generated by teams that have played nowhere but on the road, though that concept is not a tight fit right here, as the Falcons did open with a pair of home games.

“Year of the Favorite” Update: The 10-4-1 performance by NFL dogs (six outright upsets)  brings the underdog record to 40-25-2 over the past five weeks.  And yes, that includes the ”week of the favorites” last month, which saw chalk go 9-3-1, allegedly almost blasting ”Vegas”, the euphamism for the sports book world, to smithereens.

Why does everyone say “Vegas” when they talk about the sports betting industry?  I have never seen a legitimate estimate from an industry person or academic authority that sports betting in Vegas makes up any more than about 2% of the market on sports betting.  I’d be surprised if it was 1%. So why “Vegas”?

One Terrible Bet: The one push that we list this week should actually be a favorite cover for Minnesota supporter with a clue.  The Vikings, who were 16.5 all week long, beat the hard-tryin’ Lions 27-10.  If you waited until the weekend to bet Minnesota at -17, you need one of two things, a new hobby, or some educatin’.   If the latter is your answer, you can find what you need here.

Great Moments in NFL Television: The TV time outs just kill NFL games when you attend them in person.   Fox left the Cowboys/Packers game for the first quarter intermission with a official review under way.   When viewers came back, the play had been reversed and 20 seconds put back on the clock.  A punt followed, and Fox ran their change-of-possession commercials at the 10 second mark.   One play later it was the end of the first quarter and….you guessed it….an encore performance of the “end of the quarter” TV time out.   And if you were annoyed by the three full commercial breaks on TV for 20 seconds of “action”, imagine how the fans sitting on their hands in Green Bay felt about the matter.    Incidentally, this was just a few minutes after Fox’s Curt Menifee had reported in a cut-in that the Eagles led the Chargers 14-7 when in fact the Chargers led 7-0.  The error was corrected by Fox a minute later.

Bad Team News: How does a team turn things around?   In their initial five losses, the Titans lost turnovers 18-8.   In their three straight wins, the Titans have won turnovers 8-0.  In other “we got off to a dreadful start” news, befitting their position in the standings, Oakland and Green Bay combined for a stout 0 for 18 in 3rd down conversions in the first half on Sunday, improving drastically in the second half by combining for 3 for 13 on those key plays.

Underdog Home Improvement: Another sign of Vegas and online sports book health is the performance of home dogs.  Sports books are usually rooting for road favorites to fail, and they’ve failed lately.   Home underdogs have battled back from their dreadful start and are now 21-24 to the spread.  

NFL: Phone Your Million Dollar Lobbyists: The newly elected governor of New Jersey will need to make a decision about whether or not New Jersey should get involved in a lawsuit against the Federal Government designed to free states up to make thier own decisions regarding sports betting.  The struggling Atlantic City casinos fear an exodus of players to Delaware for their new offerings, which include NFL parlay and teaser betting.

Thanks for reading this far.  We had a nice 4-0 NFL card this past weekend on my late phone service and are about to start basketball, which is annually a profitable venture, particularly in November/December.  If you want more information on these services call 770-649-1078.