Buffalo is far from the most affluent market in the NFL, so the decision to play a home game each year in Toronto is understandable.  But it seems odd that the Bills would give up home games against divisional rivals like the Jets and (last year) the Dolphins.  It also seems odd that they would give up the advantage of a Thursday night home game, which is a simply awful scheduling situation for the visitor.  The Jets Thursday night win featured a pretty unique statistical oddity of both teams averaging more per run attempt than they did per pass attempt.  The Jets went for 5.8 yards per rush and 4.8 yards per pass.  The Bills ran for 5.1 yards per rush attempt but an anemic 3.1 yards per pass attempt.

Even in big road years, which this has become in the NFL, favorites usually do pretty well in the concluding quarter of the season against the pointspread.   Not that you should be playing every home team, but just something to keep in mind.  

NFL parlay betting has been a qualified success in Delaware, with the state taking in over $800,000 thus far, which is in excess of the $500,000 projected.   But the casino operator who built a large sportsbook based on the expectation of lucrative single game betting is not recouping the hefty investment made.  The NFL team up the road, the Philadelphia Eagles, takes on the Atlanta Falcons Sunday.  We’ve written a lot about how a team’s mental state means a lot down the stretch in the NFL, but injuries matter, as well.  Both of these teams are beat up, with the Falcons missing QB Matt Ryan.  Amazingly, Atlanta’s only starter last season to miss any time with injury was then-rookie offensive tackle Sam Baker.   This season the team has suffered 11 major injuries.  If you’re looking for a difference between this season and last, there it is for you.   And with the lengthy injury lists all over the league, that proposed 18-game schedule looks pretty daunting this time of year, doesn’t it?

Our newsletter, the Max, is 50-30 against the spread over the last several weeks.  The rest of the season, including every bowl game and NFL playoff contest fully analyzed, is only $79.   Call 770-649-1078 to subscribe.

The only conference championship game that is a rematch of a regular season affair is Georgia Tech vs. Clemson.  Back on a Thursday night in September, Tech burst out to a 24-0 lead, gave it all up for Clemson to go up 27-24, and then came back with a pair of field goals for the 30-27 win.   Tech was a 5-point home favorite that night and has gone from a 1-point favorite to a 1-point dog in this one.  They’re a bit banged up, but Paul Johnson, is, of course, Paul Johnson.

It speaks volumes about the ACC that their two divisional championship teams were each beaten decisively by middling SEC teams last Saturday.  Another metric is the fan interest, or lack thereof, in the ACC Championship game.   Online ticket brokers can get you into Raymond James Stadium for $19 vs. a “get in” price of $362 for the SEC’s showdown in Atlanta.

Texas is using their defensive lapses in College Station as a springboard into Saturday’s Big 12 Championship Game.  Texas A&M’s 39 point, 539 yard explosion against Texas is obviously worrisome to Longhorn partisans.  But prior to that game the Longhorns had allowed more than 20 points, and over 310 yards in a game just once each.  Chalk it up to Aggie lightning in a bottle? 

If you’re interested in how those stats compare with the potential SEC opponents of the Longhorns, let’s take a look. High opponent production allowed by Florida was 20 points and 357 yards by Arkansas.   Alabama’s high allowances have been 24 points by Virginia Tech and 341 yards by Tennessee. 

Nick Saban is 13-1 straight up in the SEC against an opponent he lost to the year before. Of course, with Urban Meyer’s 95-17 career coaching record, and Saban’s 79-24 record at LSU and Alabama, it’s not like these guys have lost too many games of any type.    Florida may facing some distractions with defensive coordinator Charlie Strong having the Louisville job in the bag and superstar Carlos Dunbar being suspended for his drunken driving arrest.  In addition to Strong having the Louisville job wrapped up, Dennis Franchione (ex New Mexico, TCU, Alabama) appears to be in very good shape for the UNLV job.   Can you say “retread”?

Can’t blame the Trojans for their TD bomb in the games closing seconds, as the Bruins brought it on themselves by calling timeouts, but USC sure was doing a lot of woofing about their 28-7 win over UCLA considering that the Trojans had the same amount of first downs and 14 more total yards than the Bruins.   A 4-1 turnover differential told the tale in that one. If you knew that there would be a 485-289 yardage edge for Toledo, how much would you have bet on them at +7.5 against Bowling Green?  Good thing you didn’t know, as the final score was Bowling Green 38-24 due to a 5-1 edge in turnovers. (That is only mentioned due to Bowling Green being 7-5 and bowl eligible.)

Get ready for a lot of justifiable howling from ACC teams who fall down the bowl ladder as a result of the Gator Bowl choosing mediocre Florida State to celebrate Bobby Bowden.  The folks in Jacksonville figure this will attract attention and, as always, the bowls are all about filling hotel rooms and restaurants in the host city.  This is the second straight year that the once-proud Gator Bowl will have a 6-6 team for reasons of commerce, as Clemson brought a lot of people to Jacksonville to celebrate New Year’s last season.

Good luck as we (unbelievably) wrap up the college regular season.

The Saints and Colts are undefeated in two very different ways.   The Saints have scored 24 points or more in every single game thus far this season.  After their brutal 17-15 win over Baltimore, the Colts have now won four games where they scored 20 or less.   The Saints and Colts were a combined 0-6 to the pointspread in the month of November before both covered on Sunday.  Throw in Denver and the three teams that were undefeated on November 1st are now 2-10 against the spread since then.

Nice effort by the Redskins on the road.  As we first wrote about when the Broncos moved into their new building and spoke of a diminished home field advantage in the middle of the 2001 season, these big new buildings don’t always offer a ton of home field edge.  They offer comfort instead of intimidation, and road teams have done pretty well against the pointspread.   The Cowboys are 4-1 straight up at home, and 3-2 against the spread, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if they underperform in Jerry’s Palace as so many other clubs have.  No surprise that discounting pushes, road teams are 86-70 against the spread by one count.

Cowboy CB Terence Newman shoved assistant coach Dave Campo on the bench Sunday, but it doesn’t seem to be a big deal in Cowboy land.  And the issue certainly wasn’t the defense on Sunday.   Statistically the Cowboys offense wasn’t dreadful, gaining 305 yards in 60 snaps.  But you would think this team would score in the first 57 minutes of a game, which it has failed to do in each of the past two weeks, almost by accident. 

The Seahawks gained 4 yards on 13 rushing attempts at Minnesota on Saturday.   And remember, that in the NFL sack yardage is not counted against the rushing yardage. Good thing they proactively locked up that Jim Mora to a deal as an assistant before anybody else could get to him, huh?  Looking at Mora and Cleveland’s Eric Mangini, it probably is not best to immediately scoop up the young coach who has already failed as a head man.  Let ’em get some seasoning back in them. 

If Nevada sports betting is really only down 10% in volume, they should be counting their blessings.  Casino players I know say that the offers to entice them out to the desert are staggering.   People out there the weekend of the Pacquiao/Cotto fight told me that the town was comparatively all but empty. Despite the downturn, expect New Jersey and Delaware to continue to push for full-scale sports betting, as those states remain hungry for revenue.

If someone offered you an over/under total of 33.5 on the Browns/Lions first quarter with no limit, how much would you have bet on the under? Tough push for Packer bettors.  Green Bay outgained San Francisco by 200 yards, earned 26 first downs to only 11 for the Niners, led 30-10 with 11 minutes left, yet only won 30-24 laying 6.  Some smart shoppers could’ve turned it into a win with -5.5, available in spots on Sunday.

I was fortunate enough to go 4-0 in the NFL for the second consecutive week with my Strategic Sports Publishing handicapping service.  In both weeks I went 3-0 with sides and hit a teaser, for a combined 8-0 mark the past two weeks.  This past weekend also had a 4-2 college football week.  If you’re interested in the rest of the football season and/or college and NBA basketball you can call 770-649-1078 for rates and details.

Thanks for reading this far.  Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours.

When a guy who enters the game 10-25-3 against the spread in conference play over his career at a school, you really shouldn’t be surprised by poor decisionmaking.  But it was truly inexplicably stupid game management by Les Miles and LSU.  Just stunning.   Miles, with his head-scratching game management, has dodged a lot of raindrops over the years, but his longtime cavalier attitude to game strategy bit him deeply on Saturday.  Understandably, he’s taking a lot of heat in Baton Rouge. Ironically, he’s taking the most heat for a decision that was a pointspread cover, he now has 11 SEC covers in nearly five full seasons in the league.

Stanford’s winning streak came to an end at the hands of rival Cal, 34-28.  The Golden Bears outgained the Cardinal 484-345. Those of us who suffer from the corporate battle between DirectTV and Versus couldn’t watch what was one of the only attractive games of the weekend.  This weekend isn’t a whole lot better, with only game between Top 25 teams being the battle for Beehive State supremacy between Utah and BYU, which is attractive, but hardly worthy of top billing. 

Gambling is a terrible thing, according to the NCAA.  It becomes decidedly less terrible when a casino is ready to buy advertising, like the casino signage visible in the exciting Oregon/Arizona game.   I was pretty lucky with both Arizona +6 and Connecticut +6 to +6.5.  Though both underdogs played evenly, they each could have lost by 7 in overtime. UConn was fortunate to win at Notre Dame in double overtime, as Randy Edsall, a top-notch coach, exercised Miles-like clock management at the close of regulation, settling for a 47-yard field goal attempt, which narrowly missed, when he could have used his timeouts to get closer.     Perhaps the Husky mentor was spooked by the phantom “holding” calls that the officials were using to keep his club out of the end zone and feared more flags taking his club out of field goal range.

Those who have correctly determined all season that Iowa, though a solid, well-coached team, isn’t as good as their record, have had horrific luck fading the Hawkeyes.  For most bettors it was the same on Saturday.   Iowa gained only 171 yards in 60 snaps, less than 3 yards per play, yet covered for most in a 12-0 win.  Extraordinarily patient Minnesota bettors were rewarded, however, as the Gophers were available at +12 for the push in the half hour before game time, and a few Gopher bettors may have scrounged out a pointspread win in the 5 minutes or so before game time.  Minnesota outgained Iowa 201-161 and I hope you didn’t watch it.

9 days after waxing South Florida, looked as bad at Syracuse on Saturday.   Outmanned Syracuse, down 10 starters including best offensive player (by far) Mike Williams and best defensive player (by far) Art Jones, absolutely smashed the Scarlet Knights, outgaining RU 423-130 in the 31-13 Syracuse victory.  Just last week Rutgers drilled South Florida 31-0 on yardage of 354-159.  All of this happening within a 9 day span proves definitively that Syracuse is 49 points and 488 yards better than South Florida, who, ummmm, beat Syracuse 34-20 on October 3rd.

Actually, believe it or not, the above paragraph actually has a point to it.  Bowl season is coming, and when trying to assess the strengths and weaknesses of teams from different conferences it is very tempting to look at how teams did against common opponents, or how they did against fellow bowlers.  And there’s some value in the process of doing that.  But you really don’t want to put too much stock in that form of analysis.

If the number looks short for Arizona at Arizona State this weekend be aware that Arizona running back Nic Grigsby is out due to injury and the Wildcats are thin at that position if backup Kaola Antolin is also limited.  Two difficult losses in a row for Mike Stoops’ crew but they should be able to get up for their rival, shouldn’t they?   Arizona State lost only 23-13 at UCLA despite a 6-0 turnover disadvantage.  Other than the TO’s it was a pretty evenly played game.   UCLA takes on USC Saturday night at 7PM local, 10PM Eastern Time.  Shouldn’t there be a law that that rivalry is played only in the sunshine? 

Sad to see the stories of the flack that the Weis family takes at Notre Dame and the Hawkins family takes at Colorado.  I understand a lot of people attach a lot of their emotional happiness to the performance of their college football team but do the families really deserve to be roped in?

North Texas has outgained their last two opponents, Florida International (by 255) and Army (by 160), by a combined 415 yards, yet lost both games.  The Mean Green have now outgained 5 opponents in losses, sporting a (-15) 13 to 28 turnover deficit on the season.   The once mighty Georgia Bulldogs would dream of such turnover numbers.  They have turned the ball over 28 times yet only forced 8 turnovers themselves.  Amazingly, UGA has recovered exactly one opponent fumble this season. 

Giants NFL’s #1 Defense: It may surprise you to learn that the NFL’s top defense is the Big Blue stop unit of the New York Giants, who are on an 0-4 straight up and pointspread streak.  In fact, the NFL’s #1 defense allowed their last 4 opponents to average over 33 points per game before their bye week. 

It’s true.  The NFL ranks their defenses by total raw yardage allowed per game, and the Giants permit opponents to gain only 274.4 yards per game, 3 yards better than the #2 Steelers D.   If you’ve seen the Giants play, you understand this to be a crock, and more accurate stats prove that.  The Giants allow 5.1 yards per play, which is 12th in the league and sounds about right based on their good start and poor recent play.  Amazingly, the NFL’s “#1 defense” is the leagues #21 scoring defense.  

What’s going on here?  Turnovers for one.  Giants opponents have gotten some cheap points.  The other aspect is that Giant opponents have run only 482 plays, which is 48 fewer than anyone else in the league has faced.  Does that speak to the pace of the game?  With several Giants games being blowouts with little urgency late does that contribute the slow pace?   Whatever the reason or answer, it’s odd.  

Quirky Schedule: The Giants and their “#1 defense” host the Falcons in the swamps of Jersey.  Atlanta has lost 3 of 4 and is just as desperate as the Giants. If it seems like Atlanta’s on the road a lot, you’re not imagining things. Falcons season ticketholders probably envisioned being at more than two home games between September 20th and November 29th.  Bettors can sometimes get an edge by downgrading the importance of statistics generated by teams that have played nowhere but on the road, though that concept is not a tight fit right here, as the Falcons did open with a pair of home games.

“Year of the Favorite” Update: The 10-4-1 performance by NFL dogs (six outright upsets)  brings the underdog record to 40-25-2 over the past five weeks.  And yes, that includes the ”week of the favorites” last month, which saw chalk go 9-3-1, allegedly almost blasting ”Vegas”, the euphamism for the sports book world, to smithereens.

Why does everyone say “Vegas” when they talk about the sports betting industry?  I have never seen a legitimate estimate from an industry person or academic authority that sports betting in Vegas makes up any more than about 2% of the market on sports betting.  I’d be surprised if it was 1%. So why “Vegas”?

One Terrible Bet: The one push that we list this week should actually be a favorite cover for Minnesota supporter with a clue.  The Vikings, who were 16.5 all week long, beat the hard-tryin’ Lions 27-10.  If you waited until the weekend to bet Minnesota at -17, you need one of two things, a new hobby, or some educatin’.   If the latter is your answer, you can find what you need here.

Great Moments in NFL Television: The TV time outs just kill NFL games when you attend them in person.   Fox left the Cowboys/Packers game for the first quarter intermission with a official review under way.   When viewers came back, the play had been reversed and 20 seconds put back on the clock.  A punt followed, and Fox ran their change-of-possession commercials at the 10 second mark.   One play later it was the end of the first quarter and….you guessed it….an encore performance of the “end of the quarter” TV time out.   And if you were annoyed by the three full commercial breaks on TV for 20 seconds of “action”, imagine how the fans sitting on their hands in Green Bay felt about the matter.    Incidentally, this was just a few minutes after Fox’s Curt Menifee had reported in a cut-in that the Eagles led the Chargers 14-7 when in fact the Chargers led 7-0.  The error was corrected by Fox a minute later.

Bad Team News: How does a team turn things around?   In their initial five losses, the Titans lost turnovers 18-8.   In their three straight wins, the Titans have won turnovers 8-0.  In other “we got off to a dreadful start” news, befitting their position in the standings, Oakland and Green Bay combined for a stout 0 for 18 in 3rd down conversions in the first half on Sunday, improving drastically in the second half by combining for 3 for 13 on those key plays.

Underdog Home Improvement: Another sign of Vegas and online sports book health is the performance of home dogs.  Sports books are usually rooting for road favorites to fail, and they’ve failed lately.   Home underdogs have battled back from their dreadful start and are now 21-24 to the spread.  

NFL: Phone Your Million Dollar Lobbyists: The newly elected governor of New Jersey will need to make a decision about whether or not New Jersey should get involved in a lawsuit against the Federal Government designed to free states up to make thier own decisions regarding sports betting.  The struggling Atlantic City casinos fear an exodus of players to Delaware for their new offerings, which include NFL parlay and teaser betting.

Thanks for reading this far.  We had a nice 4-0 NFL card this past weekend on my late phone service and are about to start basketball, which is annually a profitable venture, particularly in November/December.  If you want more information on these services call 770-649-1078.

Every Week is Like A Playoff? Are you excited about this Saturday’s college football?   What’s to be excited about?   See all those big pointspreads set by Vegas and online sportsbooks?  Lots of hefty lines as there is not a single game between teams ranked in the Coaches poll or the AP poll this week.  Not a single Top 25 vs. Top 25 matchup according to the two major polls?  What kind of weekend is this?  So much for the argument that college football doesn’t need a playoff because every week is like a playoff.  And good luck finding drama in the top three teams playing pinatas at home. Alabama will not have a line against 1-AA Chattanooga,  Florida is 44-point chalk against Sun Belt weakling Florida International, and Texas is laying 28 into reeling Kansas.

Winding Down: Already?  It seemed odd to start working on the college football card Sunday afternoon and see Ohio State/Michigan staring back on the schedule.  While it’s a rivalry game, you got to wonder where UM’s head is at right now.  Rich Rodriguez is the controversial figure, but he’s an offensive guy and implenting more his system, the Wolverine offense has really improved this season.  The problem is a defense that’s the worst in the Big Ten.  In conference play they allow 6.2 yards per play and 444 yards per game, stunning numbers as you know that Michigan’s defensive personnel has got to be better than that.  Assuming Rich Rod survives, defensive coordinator Greg Robinson is likely to fall on his sword.  You have to wonder what Rodriguez saw in Robinson when he made the hire.  He must have forgotten that in 2006 and 2007 his Mountaineers scored 41 and 55 points against Syracuse in the last two meetings between the two as head coaches. 

Fort Worth Futility: TCU fans should be rightly proud of their Horned Frogs and speculation that they are the best team in the country is not unfounded.   55-28 over Utah doesn’t tell the true story of the domination, which was 549-284 in yards and 32-11 in first downs against a team that had won 21 of their previous 22 games.   But TCU did suffer a blow on Saturday night when Texas A&M got their heads handed to them by Oklahoma to the tune of 640-228 in yards and 32-13 in first downs in addition to the 65-10 final score.   TCU needs those same Aggies to miraculously knock off the Longhorns.  Anyone see that happening?

Automatic Non-Qualifiers: The other club attempting to crash the BCS had an odd win, as Boise crushed Idaho 63-25.  Or did they crush Idaho?  Yardage was actually in favor of Idaho 514-458, but the Vandals were unable to overcome a 7-0 turnover disadvantage.  Fortunately for the Broncos most voters don’t look into boxscores.  Unfortunately for Boise State despite Idaho’s improving fortunes, BSU’s strenght of schedule gets weaker with each game they play.

East Carolina scored 4th quarter TD’s on two interception returns and a fumble return to turn a 23-17 tight one into a 44-17 rout at Tulsa, and the 4-1 turnover disadvantage Tulsa suffered was meaningful.  But ECU also outgained the Golden Hurricane 517-266, including 242-30 on the ground, so the result was pretty legit.

Bad Team Blues: College football is hard when you win, and even harder when you lose.  It’s simply an enormous commitment for the players and they get just a few weeks off after the season and a few weeks between spring practice and “voluntary” offseason workouts as a respite.   And, of course, if they’re not killing it in the weight room during those times they hear about it from their coaches. 

That’s why it’s tough when you see struggling teams like North Texas and Syracuse lose games as they lost them Saturday.  Poor North Texas led by 14 at the half but lost when Florida International scored a TD on an interception return, and set up two others on a blocked punt and a UNT fumble to steal the win 35-28.   3.5-point road dog North Texas failed to cover despite a 513-258 yardage edge.  Syracuse’s D played a great game but their offense continued to be a turnover machine and the Orangemen lost to Louisville on a late TD despite holding the Cardinals to 152 yards of offense.   Both of these teams are playing better than their final scores indicate. Doug Marrone’s clean up this season will bear fruit in the future and if North Texas gives Todd Dodge another year, they’ll reap the benefits of the foundation that he’s laid.

USC=Unusually Stinky Cesspool: Something’s rotten in the house of Troy. Stanford only led USC by 7 entering the 4th quarter before a 4-touchdown final stanza turned it into a 55-21 runaway.  And yes, turnovers were a factor.   But when you brutalize your opponent to the tune of 325-138 in the running game, it is no fluke at all.   One interesting decision by Coach Harbaugh was going for 2 when up 48-21.  No chart suggests that, and that effort to get to the round number of 50 is something the Trojans will remember when they have better teams in the next couple of years.  That’s assuming they have better teams, of course. Stanford senior Richard Sherman said of the Trojans, “They don’t play as hard.  They don’t run as hard.” 

It’s hard for people to get their arms around how far USC has fallen so quickly.   When I went against USC on my late phone service three weeks ago with Oregon and last Saturday with Stanford I received impassioned pleas telling me how wrong I was in my analysis both times.  USC failed to cover those two games by a combined 74.5 points.  The Trojans are 2-8 against the spread, and have pointspread failures this season of 23, 24.5, 15, 30, and 44.5. 

The Only Excitement is from the Refs: Can you recall the SEC being this boring?   Other than the two conference champs it’s just a sea of mediocrity, as even the third best team (LSU) is pretty dull.   You could make a case that Ole’ Miss and Tennessee are at least borderline compelling and they met on Saturday.  Tennessee didn’t react well to the loss of three freshman (armed robbery) and lost to Ole’ Miss by a count of 42-17 (yardage of 492-275), despite not committing a turnover, allowing only a single sack, and having only two penalties enforced against them.  That tells you how sharp the Rebels were.  Ole’ Miss players spoke of being motivated by the presence of their former coach Ed Orgeron, the Tennessee assistant who is apparently hated by most of his former players.   Where was Dexter McCluster earlier this season?  The Rebel blazer had his number called for only 38 carries for 164 yards in his first 6 games.  But the curious lack of use went out the window in his last 3 contests, and McCluster has totaled 69 carries for 591 yards in that trio of SEC affairs.  He didn’t in Ole’ Miss’ titanic matchup with 1-AA Northern Arizona.

If winning at sports betting is something that you’d like to be able to do, some valuable complimentary reports are just a click away.

Hope something in here helps you out.   Good luck this weekend. 

Underdogs went 10-3 last weekend in the NFL, with a miracle dog cover by the Chiefs and popular favorites Saints and Patriots failing to cover by a point each.  Only the Steelers, Falcons, and Seahawks (barely) covered as favorites, and 7 underdogs won outright.  It was a big underdog week.

So can we finally, once-and-for-all dismiss the whining of the Las Vegas bookmakers about the surge of favorites two weeks ago?   Yes, I know favorites went 9-3-1 that weekend.  Yes, I know a lot of people hit parlay cards.   But in the other three weekends in the past month the favorites have combined to go 13-27. 

By one count, favorites are now 64-63-1 on the season, meaning a $110/$100 bet on every favorite would have a bettor down $530.  So much for the “Year of the Favorite”.

Monday night’s game was pretty strange. Denver dominated the first half from the line of scrimmage, but they trailed 7-3.   The Steelers had the one big play of the half with an interception return for a TD from midfield.  The Broncos had a 183-54 yardage edge at halftime.  Steelers won yardage in the second half, 321-59, winning in blowout fashion.   How can two solid, well-coached team each throw in such a clunker of a half at the same exact time that the opponent is performing so well?   

In the two prime time games this week, Kyle Orton and Jay Cutler, the two principals in the most celebrated QB trade of the summer, combined to throw 0 TD passes and 8 interceptions.  Since their bye week the Bears are 1-4 and Cutler as 6 TD passes and 12 interceptions. 

A lot of people will tell you that yards per play is the most important stat in football.  No real disagreement here.  So tell me how the ascendant Bengals are permitting opponents to outgain them on a yards per play basis (gaining 5.5 yards per play and allowing 5.6) while the disappointing Packers are outgaining opponents by almost a yard-and-a-half per play (6.3-4.9)? 

The Packers are one bizarre team, you would think that outgaining opponents by almost a yard-and-a-half per play while being #2 in the league in turnover margin would have them sitting at 7-1 or 6-2.  Nope, they’re 4-4 straight up and against the spread.

If you like to bet good teams as big underdogs, the 6-2 Bengals are a 7-point dog at Pittsburgh.

If you like to fade bad teams as big favorites, the 2-6 Titans are a 7-point favorite hosting the Bills.

I’m not saying that you shouldn’t be annoyed by the hype for the Patriots/Colts Sunday night game, but the only other contest between likely playoff teams is the Bengals/Steelers game.   The loser of the Chargers/Eagles game will be 5-4 and the playoffs may be difficult to make.

Good luck this weekend.

Thad Lewis of Duke has been an underappreciated player for a few years now.  And NFL types are interested in the senior QB.   But for all his fine work over the past four years, he’s also really capable of a clunker or two.   Last week UNC’s speedy defense held him to 16 of 33 for 113 yards, right around 3.5 yards per pass attempt, which is terrible.   Back in September against a less athletic opponent in Army, Lewis was 5 for 16 for 60 yards before being benched.   But Lewis gets very little support from his teammates.  Duke has been held under 100 yards by every 1-A opponent they’ve faced, and against 1-A opposition Duke rushes for a putrid 1.7 yards per attempt,  While that includes sack yardage Lewis is at least being better protected this season.  He’s been sacked 22 times this season, which isn’t bad when you consider that he was sacked 82 times combined in his freshman and sophomore seasons.   How effective would Lewis be with a running game supporting him?

Has there ever been a coach that can just plug in a backup quarterback with no ill effects like Brian Kelly of Cincinnati?  UC was outstanding last season despite playing musical quarterbacks, and they’re doing it again this season. Tony Pike (15 TD’s, 3 interceptions) goes down with an injury and backup Zach Calleros steps in without the Bearcats missing a beat.  Calleros now has 10 TD’s, a single interception, and a ridiculous 13.3 yards per pass attempt on the season.   Unlike the Dookies, the Cinti QB’s have a ton of support from their running game, averaging 5.1 yards per rush.  The balanced Bearcats are top 10 in the country both yards per pass attempt and yards per rush attempt. 

Surprisingly, as good as Cincinnati is, and as under the radar as they are, they haven’t been a productive pointspread outfit.  Bettors are breaking even with the Bearcats since the start of last season, with an 11-10 record against the spread.  Kelly’s heroes are 5-3 this year after going 6-7 against the number last year.

A lot of offshore sports books and Vegas bookies are smiling, as the top teams continue their middling performance to the pointspread. Texas is 3-5-1 against the spread.  Florida is 3-4-1 to the number.   Bama is 6-3 spreadwise.  So the top 3 BCS teams are dead even .500 to the number.  The smaller undefeated schools know that they need their style points.  Boise State and TCU are each 6-2 against the spread. 

The Horned Frogs are just pounding people, beating their last four opponents, all Mountain West conference foes, by a combined 178-25.  The football betting market has noticed, as TCU is favored by 17 or so over a Utah team that is 21-1 since the start of last season.   And when you look into the numbers, the spread is justifiable.  If Texas were to slip up, TCU would be a worthy championship game participant, but TCU closes with New Mexico and Wyoming, which doesn’t do a whole lot for the old strength of schedule

Texas is an interesting case study.  They gain only 5.8 yards per play, which is a middling 41st in the NCAA when judging how teams do against 1-A opponents.  But they are very efficient, scoring a point for every 10.5 yards of offense, which is best in the land.   That kind of offensive efficiency is often fueled by your defense making scores and giving you short fields.  Texas’ D is the top yardage D in the land, allowing opponents a mere 3.5 yards per play.

I hope you learned something that’ll help you win a few bucks at some point. Good luck this weekend, and be careful. 

The worst thing about the Big 8’s morphing into the Big 12, other than destroying the storied SWC, was the elimination of the annual Nebraska/Oklahoma game. The Sooners and Huskers match up this Saturday and I haven’t heard a word about it.

Remember when those classics from Lincoln and Norman were the centerpiece of the day after Thanksgiving? Mike Rozier, IM Hipp, Billy Sims, Jamelle Holieway, JC Watts, all running the option to perfection. Those were the days.

The 1984 battle for an Orange Bowl wasn’t the most star-studded edition of the rivalry. But the atmosphere and drama were there all the same. Make yourself a turkey sandwich smothered with mayo and cranberry sauce, sit back, and enjoy Keith Jackson’s classic intro and the highlights:

It was a good weekend for the underdogs in the NFL, meaning a good Sunday for online sportsbooks, as well as Vegas and Delaware.  But favorites are still slightly profitable after juice just betting them blindly.  But it was another bad week for competitive football.  There just haven’t been a lot of close NFL games.  Even when the dogs cover, they’re not dramatic games.   This weekend underdogs like the Vikings won by 12, the Panthers won by 13, and the Eagles cruised by 23.  Only 46 of 116 games this season have been decided by 7 points or less.   With over 60% of the games being decided by more than a TD, there’s far less drama in our lives on Sunday afternoons.

The Bills, called by one headline entering Sunday’s games the “Surging Bills”, had their two-game winning streak broken by the Texans on Sunday.   But the only they had done positively in their previous two games was cause turnovers.  The Bills have now been outgained 1278-667 in their last three games.  They’d been living on borrowed time and it caught up with them against Houston.   The Texans played a price, however.  Tight end Owen Daniels is out for the season with a torn ACL suffered in the second quarter. 

It is conceivable that a team has scored 30 points with only 104 yards of total offense at some point in the history of the NFL, but it’s possible that the Dolphins broke new ground on Sunday.  When a TD put Miami up 30-19 with 8:48 to go, coach Tony Sparano elected to go for 2 to make it a 13-point lead instead of 12.   Putting it at 12 eliminates a TD, two point conversion, and field goal tying you up.   Instead of admitting a boneheaded mistake, Sparano offered a non-explanation explanation that didn’t make an ounce of sense.   You have to figure that Bill Parcells, a master of in-game strategy, has a little talk about the issue with his underling this week.

This week’s Monday Night game between the Steelers and Broncos in Denver had an opening total of 38.5.   Every other game opened with a total in the 40’s or 50’s.   Looking at different metrics involving scoring, there’s not a huge explosion in scoring this season, with the exception of the Saints pushing 40 points per game.  There just aren’t any low scoring vs. low scoring matchups this week.

Nearly 68% of the offensive production in one game this weekend took place on the ground. The Jaguars/Titans game had 770 yards of total offense with 522 of those yards earned on running plays.    Maurice Jones-Drew had 80 and 79 yard TD runs for the Jags before Chris Johnson responded with 52 and 89 yard TD runs.   The 89 yard TD run was a backbreaker, breaking open the game on the first play of the fourth quarter.  It’s amazing how many of these long runs occur after a tackle is missed in the backfield.  The natural inclination of the defender is to ease up when they see a play being made and that is frequently their downfall. 

It’s valuable to know what bad teams will be trying down the stretch.   If the coaching staff looks on the way out things can get dicey, so keep an eye on the Raiders, Browns, and Bucs.  Other bad teams are building for the future with potentially good coaches, like the Lions and Rams, and effort is more likely.  Other teams you just don’t know.   Jim Mora doesn’t appear to trust his 2-5 team down the stretch, and is letting his charges know that positions are up for grabs.   Mora, the ultimate player’s coach (read: enabler) in Atlanta, lost his jobs after the Falcons went 2-7 both straight up and against the spread to close the 2006 season.

There’s a lot of talk about the dominance of favorites and the damage being done to the (poor) sportsbooks.  We’ll take a hard look at that later this week.   Thanks for reading this today.