by Kevin O’Neill 

Last year Florida and Oklahoma scorched the sports books as they roared to the BCS Championship game. Sooners backers enjoyed a 10-2 pointspread mark while the Gators covered at a 10-1-1 clip.   Those who were looking for a repeat this season from top contenders have had no reason for celebration.

Texas is 2-4-1 to the spread, Florida is 2-3-1, and USC is 2-5, with those three acknowledged contenders combining to go 6-12-2 to the number.  Oklahoma was seen to be their equal coming into the season before being exposed in their opener against BYU (and since then).   Alabama wasn’t seen as a top-tier club entering the campaign, and while they’re 5-3 to the spread, few were likely playing the Tide for “run up the score” possibilities in their opener against Virginia Tech, and now that people realize the strength of the Tide they’ve failed to cover for two consecutive weeks.   By any measure, ”laying points for style points” is a money-burning failure this season.  

Whether due to his injury, the loss of his offensive coordiantor and playmakers, the increased competition, or simply a slump, Tim Tebow hasn’t been a world beater in SEC play.  In non conference play Tebow averaged 10.9 yards per pass attempt with 5 TD’s and no interceptions.   Against SEC opponents, Gator linchpin is averaging 7.9 yards per pass attempt with 3 TD passes and 4 interceptions.

Pair of Big 12 3TD Faves Upset: Not a lot of three-TD favorites win lose at home, but a pair of them did in the Big 12 on Saturday.  Few teams win by 22-points as a 22-point dog, but Texas A&M pulled it off at Texas Tech on Saturday night.   It was a humiliating loss for Mike Leach’s inconsistent crew, as they see A&M as their biggest rival (they’d rather beat Texas, but they most compare themselves to the Aggies).  Leach was hardly in nuturing mode when discussing QB Tyler Potts, calling his QB ”slow and statue-like” (he also reference what it would be like to coach the Swedish Bikini Team).  But should the QB be the focus when your defense allows 321 yards rushing and 238 yards passing? The result was particularly unexpected due to the disparate results the two teams had in the previous two weeks against Kansas State.  Two weeks earlier Tech humiliated Kansas State 66-14, and K-State had followed that up with a 62-14 (59-0 midway through the 3rd quarter) shellacking of A&M.

Nebraska’s 9-7 home loss to 20.5-point dog Iowa State is less headscratching when you look at the turnovers in this game.  All 8 were committed by the Huskers, and a daring fake punt by the Cyclones had the overall effect of a turnover.  The second half was scoreless as Iowa State hung on for dear life.   Northern division pretenders Missouri and Kansas were both kicked to the curb (by Southern Division stalwarts Texas and Oklahoma) and none of the games in the league were close, illustrating the twin follies of betting college teasers and any suggestions earlier in the season that the Big 12 North was gaining on the Big 12 South.

Close Wins Hurting Irish Future? A friend of mine who is a Notre Dame fan (can’t blame him, he’s an alum) that a part of him would rather that the Irish lose, all the easier to part with Charlie “Touchdown Grimice” Weis.   And that was before we realized that the Irish won that game by the skin of their teeth over Boston College despite a 5-0 turnover advantage.  BC is a team that you really can’t judge by statistics.  Year in and year out they find a way to compensate for their weaknesses, stay in games, and win them, though they came up just short on Saturday. 

Notre Dame would do well to give Weis, who is ill-suited to run a college program, the boot and hire Brian Kelly of Cincinnati.  The whipping that the Bearcats put on Louisville Saturday didn’t include stud QB Tony Pike, but Kelly does a great job plugging different quarterbacks in with solid results.    Backup Zach Collaros was 15-17 for 253 yards and 3 TD’s, but Kelly is firm that Pike will be the starter when he comes back.   

Georgia Tech’s Offense Grinding To Perfection: One mistake I made this week was not accounting to the vast improvement of Georgia Tech’s offense in Paul Johnson’s second year.   Virginia held Tech in check and has improved greatly on both sides of the ball lately, and broke open a close game Saturday by taking the second half kickoff and engineering a 18 play, 82 yard drive that took 10:47.  A 20-yard Jonathan Dwyer run on 3rd and 8 was sprung by an obvious uncalled clip, but Virginia couldn’t stop the four other conversions on 3rd or 4th down and the Jackets took control.

Classy Mountaineers: West Virginia fans have not always been known as the classiest bunch, but they flattered their state and their school in the numerous ways the honored Jaspar Howard, the UConn player stabbed to death the previous weekend.    The gestures were appreciated by Connecticut.  The Huskies then proceded to play their guts out, outgaining WVU 501-386 but coming up short on the scoreboard 28-24 as a +7.5 dog.   It was the first time the Mountaineers have been outgained this season.

San Diego State Improving: A 7-point favorite that doubles their opponent’s rushing yardage covers a vast majority of the time, but not when they are outpassed 459-205, as Colorado State was by San Diego State on Saturday.   You would think a beach team like San Diego State would wear down in the thin-air of the Rockies but the Aztecs wired the second half 35-7.  Star Aztec WR Vincent Brown was injured in the first half, but DeMarco Sampson stepped in for him in a big way, with 15 catches for 257 yards and 3 TD’s.   In more meaningful MWC action, TCU crushed BYU in Provo, 38-7 thanks to edges of 101 yards and 2 turnovers.

In the Navy’s Wake: In Annapolis Wake Forest showed that their blowout loss at Clemson was no fluke, and they’re a team that has declined quite a bit instead of improving as they usually do under Jim Grobe.   Navy didn’t throw a single pass in their 13-10 home win over the Deacons played in the rain.   Navy and their service academy competitors Air Force and Army passed for only 80 yards combined this weekend.  The three totaled 179 rushing attempts and only 19 passing attempts this weekend.  

Clutch Hawkeyes: Iowa continues to annoy those who rightfully see the weaknesses of the Big Ten and want the conference out of the BCS mix as a result.   The Hawkeyes didn’t play particularly well but managed to take a trick play punch from Michigan State and then score on the game’s final play to gut out a 15-13 win in East Lansing.   The game was an old-school defensive delight, 6-6 until the game’s final moments with both teams holding the other to field goals on critical “first and goal from the 1″ situations in the second half.  But how many old-schoolers have the Big Ten Network to have watched the contest?

The BCS computers love Iowa, and the Hawkeyes are fortunate that the margin of victory is no longer a component of those ratings, as the 8-0 Hawkeyes have wins by a field goal or less over Northern Iowa, Arkansas State, Michigan, and now Michigan State.   That Iowa/Michigan State game was one of only two 1-A contests that were turnover free , with South Carolina’s win (but pointspread failure) against Vanderbilt being the other.  

Clash of the Titans: We opened with the BCS contenders, let’s conclude with the bottom feeders.  Ball State showed that an 0-7 team simply shouldn’t be a road favorite, even against a team as putrid as 0-6 Eastern Michigan.   Ball State won rushing 463-153 and first downs 38-24, but couldn’t put away the Hurons and won only 29-27 as a 3-point favorite.  A 3-0 turnover differential in favor of EMU was the main culprit.

Thanks for reading this far.  Check out our game preview information throughout the week at RealWorldSports.

In a game that looked a lot more important before the two teams started underachieving this season, Florida State and North Carolina, with a combined 2-7 record against the spread, meet in Chapel Hill.  North Carolina is a 2.5 point home favorite at some books, while you have to lay 3 points at even money on the Heels at others. The total hovers around 48.5.  Weather is not anticipated to be a factor at all.

FSU’s offense is solid, but the Seminoles are saddled with a horrific defense.   The reverse is true for the Tar Heels, a team brandishing a fine defense but one that struggles offensively.   Yard per play stats tell you what these two teams are all about.  Against 1-A opponents, Florida State gains 6.2 yards per play and allows 7.4, while UNC gains 4.4 yards per play and allows 4.1.   Using yards per play against 1-A teams North Carolina has the #8 defense in the land.  Florida State’s offense is ranked 22nd and their defense is #118.

For years Mickey Andrews did fine work with Florida State’s defense.  But the Seminoles pass defense is a disaster area.   The ‘Noles are permitting 11 yards per pass attempt against 1-A opponents, ranking them 120th and last in all of major college football.   Despite this brutal defense, FSU is getting only a field goal or less on the road here.   But the line is kept in check by a putrid Carolina offense that scored 12 points against UConn (on 268 yards), 7 points against Georgia Tech (154 yards), and 3 points against Virginia (174 yards). 

UNC QB TJ Yates was respectable before getting hurt last season, but misses the three recievers that have departed Chapel Hill for the NFL.   Yates is also getting no help from his running game, which is averaging only 2.0 yards per attempt against 1-A opponents.   North Carolina is being kept in games by their defense.  Take away the Georgia Tech game and opponents’ high water marks against UNC are 17 points (East Carolina) and 254 yards (Virginia).  It’ll be interesting to see how the Heels D matches up with a Florida State offense led by the effective Christian Ponder playing quarterback behind a developing offensive line.

Good O/Bad D vs. Bad O/Good D can be a tough call to make.  Florida State has some injuries, while UNC is relatively healthy.  North Carolina students are on fall break, but the crowd doesn’t influence a lot of ACC games anyhow.  The Flaming Spears don’t intimidate the way they used to, a 1-4 record against 1-A teams will do that to a program.  And there’s more focus on whether or not Bobby Bowden will be back next year than what’s happening on the field this season.    But does North Carolina have the offensive weapons to take advantage?

by Kevin O’Neill 

There was a lot of bad football last Saturday, sloppy games full of turnovers.  Sluggish offenses were the rule, crisp offenses the exception.  As a result it was a big week for unders.  By one count, discounting pushes, there were 19 unders and 31 overs.  Your mileage, of course, may vary due to line moves.  The BCS conferences created all of the profit for under players, with the SEC and Big 10 leading the way with all 9 conference games from those two leagues going under the total, with most of them not even being close.

But while under players profited overall, if your card included the San Jose State/Fresno State game under the total, avert your eyes. Final minute histrionics are going to happen with great frequency, but the way San Jose State pushed the closing number of +20 and put their game at Fresno over the total deserves special mention.  With the score 41-14 San Jose backup QB Kyle Reed hooked up with Josh Harrison for a 59-yard TD completion with no time left.  They then kicked the extra point (something that’s always in question on the game’s final play) for the push.

This will win you a bar bet.  The leaders of the ACC’s two divisions are….Virginia and Boston College.   And the leader in the Big 12 North is…..Kansas State.   It’s equally shocking that Louisiana-Monroe is co-leader in the Sun Belt, but nobody cares about the Sun Belt, so let’s move on.   Got a few “why don’t you like Bret Bielema?” emails after suggesting here that the Wisconsin coach was a good reason not to follow the big move toward the Badgers last week.   Bielema had a good first year following Barry Alvarez, but he’s 11-19 against the spread since then, underperforming in big game after big game, like against Iowa on Saturday.

Former Texas Tech starting QB Taylor Potts replaces Sticks Sheffield due to a foot injury suffered by Sheffield in the Red Raiders win at Nebraska.   Potts was the starter before suffering a concussion, averaging 7.7 yards per pass attempt with 13 TD’s and 6 interceptions.  Sheffield took the Red Raiders production to a higher level, averaging nearly 10 yards per pass attempt with 12 TD’s and only 2 interceptions.  Potts’ numbers are bound to improve against an Aggie pass defense allowing over 10 yards per pass attempt in their two conference games.  

The Red Raiders opposing QB this Saturday, Texas A&M’s Jerrod Johnson, had his impressive streak of 225 passes without an interception broken in the second quarter of the Aggies blowout loss at Kansas State.  Johnson then threw 3 picks in a span of 23 passes.    Russell Wilson of NC State had a NCAA record skein of 379 passes without an interception broken against Wake Forest a couple of games ago.  From that point Wilson then threw 4 interceptions in less than 9 quarters.    Miniscule sample size but does a careful QB take more chances without the pressure of a pickless streak being broken?

The 4th quarter explosion at Missouri was nice, but Nebraska’s offense has been horrific in 7 of their last 8 quarters.  You can tell it’s been a while since Nebraska has had much success when the famously polite Husker fans boo starting QB Zac Lee and openly clamor for the elevation of backup Cody Green to the starting spot.    There’s a definite lack of patience in Lincoln, and their usually savvy fans should realize that Bill Callahan did a lot of damage that’s going to take some time to fix.  

Where reaching the time of the year where depth starts to be an issue.  I was looking for reasons to play Auburn against LSU in the Tiger vs. Tiger matchup, as LSU’s offense is really struggling right now.  But Auburn’s offense isn’t getting the same kind of production against the athletic defenses of the SEC while defensively they’re particlarly thin at the linebacker position.  Their 3 starting linebackers played the entire game last week and this is their 8th straight game without a week off.   Syracuse is another team with depth issues.   New coach Doug Marrone cleaned house after the Greg Robinson debacle, with 18 players leaving the program.   The difference in the Orangemen this week is that they’re rested and taking on an Akron team that provided them their most humiliating loss of last season.  

Good luck this weekend in your own personal college football wars.

Notre Dame’s Clausen vs. USC’s Pass D:  There are some interesting matchups  on Saturday, and one of them is Casey Clausen vs. the USC pass defense.   Clausen is averaging 10.4 yards per pass attempt, this is massively improved from his freshman (5.1) and junior (7.2) seasons.  Can Clausen keep up the pace? In the last five years the only QB to average over 10 yards per attempt was David Johnson of Tulsa last season, though Johnson’s big numbers were marred somewhat by throwing 18 INT’s in 400 attempts. 

Clausen needs to try to keep that up against a USC defense that is allowing 5.4 yards per pass attempt after finishing #1 in that category last year and #2 nationally the previous season.  The Trojan D is the only one in the country that has yet to allow a TD pass on the season, but the secondary has only 3 interceptions in 160 opponent pass attempts.

Notre Dame gave the Trojans a run for their  money in the famous 34-31 “Bush Push” loss in 2005, but since Southern Cal started to hit their stride in Pete Carroll’s second year, the Trojans have beaten the Irish by 20 or more every other season.  Series scores starting last year and going backward have been 38-3, 38-0, 44-24, 34-31, 41-10, 45-14, and 44-13. 

Florida State’s Catastrophic Pass Defense:   In recent years blame for the failures of the Florida State Seminoles have been placed firmly on the shoulders of their offense.   Mickey Andrews’ defense was always sound, and usually even better than their stats, accounting for the tough positions their offense would put them in due to turnovers and overall inefficiency.   But that’s not the case this year.  Florida State’s defense is allowing 10.4 yards per pass attempt, ranking them #120 out of 120 teams in that important statistic.  That number includes games against 1-AA Jacksonville State and QB-less Boston College.   This is a sudden collapse, as last year FSU ranked 28th nationally, allowing 6.2 yards per attempt.

Busing for Dollars:  Looking to reduce travel expenses, Cal is busing to UCLA for the Bears game against the Bruins, which you have to figure would add about 3 hours each way to the 377 mile one-way trip.   Miami’s doing the same thing to get to Orlando for their game with Central Florida, but their trip is only two-thirds as long, and probably will only add about an hour to what it would have been door-to-door.  It’ll be interesting to see how much energy the Hurricanes, and especially the Bears, have both early and late in those contests.   Here’s guessing  it isn’t a big handicapping factor, as the players are young and healthy and have a hotel stay to rest up the night before. 

Strange Box Scores:  Ohio State was outgained by Wisconsin 368-184 yet covered the 15-point spread in a 31-15 win.  How does that happen?  The Buckeyes earned only 8 first downs and only a single offensive TD, but two INT returns and a kickoff return provided the points they needed.  That hidden strong play by Wisconsin explains the big early week betting that took the Badgers from +1 to -3 against Iowa (the game has since settled at Wisconsin -2.5).  Betting Bret Bielema over Kirk Ferentz requires some major statistical validation. 

ACC Handicapping and Betting Notes:  How good would Virginia be if they started the season in late September ever year?   Since 2005 UVA is now 0-10 against the spread in their first two games of the season  (includes 1-AA games this year and last in which they  covered neither pointspread posted at a few books).   But they’re 12-5 against the spread in games 5-8.  Unfortunately, it is unlikely that trend players will have Al “Mr. October” Groh back next year to take advantage of those patterns.  Duke’s Thaddeus Lewis was 40-50 for 483 yards, 5 TD’s and no INT’s in the Blue Devils upset win over NC State.   “That’s about as good as it gets,”  said his coach David Cutcliffe.  Cutcliffe, who coached both Manning brothers, also said it was the best college game by a QB he’s ever seen.   Just a few weeks before Lewis was pulled from a game against Army for poor performance.  Bettors need to ascertain whether Lewis is reaching his long-promised potential or if he just freaked in the NC State game.

Big 12 Scoring Down:  The Big 12 was a TD festival last season, but Oklahoma and Texas enter their matchup a combined 1-7 to the under this year.  Last season the Oklahoma/over parlay cashed in 10 of the Sooners 13 lined games.   This season the reverse is true, with opponent/under 3 for 4 this far.  Unders are 3-5 in Big 12 conference games, but the only game of the 8 that saw the two teams score more points than they did the previous season was Kansas/Iowa State in the Jayhawks 41-36 win last Saturday.   Texas defeated Colorado by the identical 38-14 score they beat them by last season.  And the other six games have all been lower scoring than last season.  So scoring is down in the Big 12.  But that’s hardly news. After last year’s fireworks, how could it not be.

Important Thursday night affair, as Nebraska visits Missouri. Nebraska opened as a 2.5-point favorite, and the total opened at 54.5. Most prevelant line is now Nebraska -3.5 and 51.5, so there’s been some movement on the under in this game, which is at least in part weather-related. Looks like Las Vegas Sports Consultants suggested a pick on this game, but no Vegas or online sportsbook actually opened it there.

When these two get together in Columbia, one thing is guaranteed, and that is that nothing will happen as interesting as what happened in 1997.

The winner of this game will have a very live shot in the Big 12 North, and it will turn the winner’s game against Kansas into a big one. Enjoy it.

To Convert or Not to Convert: Last week we wrote about the San Diego State-Air Force game that saw SDSU score on the last play of the game and we mentioned the pointspread implications.  There was no need to mention that the extra point was not attempted.   This past weekend we caught the close of two games that ended on “meaningless” TD plays.  When Indiana scored a “meaningless” TD against Penn State on the game’s final play, the Hoosiers kicked the extra point, which made some who bet the over in the middle of the week before it went up, very, very happy.  In the Auburn/Tennessee game, Tennessee scored on the game’s final play, and Lane Kiffin gave midweek over players and middlers some brief hope holding up two fingers as though the Vols would attempt a 2-pont conversion.   But when Auburn’s players and staff ran across the field to shake hands, Kiffin did the same, and no conversion was attempted.

In the NFL, when a TD is scored on the game’s final play, an extra point is attempted whether it is needed or not.   The rationale is that since point differential is a tiebreaker for playoff positioning, an extra point should be attempted.   Seems like a policy is in order for the college boys as well, if only to keep conspiracy theorists at bay.

The Luck Factor: Pointspread heartache was in full effect during last week’s prime time affairs.  In Thursday night’s game at West Virginia, a Colorado TD with 3 seconds left was ideal for those who bet the Buffs and the over.   In Provo on Friday night, Utah State “earned” the cover with a TD, also with 3 seconds left, in their loss to BYU.   These plays, and the dozens more like them that will occur over the course of the season, remind us that a lot of our bets will be decided by luck, maybe as many as half over the course of a long season.  

If you accept that premise, a 55% bettor (which is a rare bird indeed) will split his luck games 50/50, and on the remaining half of his plays will have 60% right sides and 40% wrong sides.  Now this is arguable (a good shopper will have lucky wins that others won’t get), and a lot of it is subject to interpretation (in their mind, bettors see too many of their winners as right sides and too many of their losers as bad luck), but it isn’t all that far off base.  And the truth of it should keep you from getting too bent out of shape when those unjust pointspread non-covers occur, as they are simply inevitable.

Rutgers Wimpy Schedule: The 12 game schedule has the majority of 1-A teams playing a 1-AA opponents, but nobody has a cushier schedule than Rutgers, who plays a pair of lower division outfits, as well as 1-A lightweights Florida International and Army.  After beating Howard (Sagarin #218, lost to Florida A&M 48-10 in their next outing), Rutgers takes on Texas Southern (Sagarin #231) this week.  Texas Southern lost to Louisiana-Monroe 58-0 and fellow 1-AA school Texas State 52-18.  Online sportsbooks have been more aggressive about taking action on 1-AA games this fall, and it’ll be interesting to see what the line is on Game 447/448 this week.  

Digging Deep in the SEC:  New offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn is receiving a good bit of credit for Auburn’s 5-0 start, and with good reason, as the next scoring play by the Tigers will see them eclipse their entire scoring output from last year’s 12-game schedule.   Now Malzahn takes his Tiger offense to Arkansas on Saturday with a good bit of motivation.  Malzahn was fired after a single year as Arkansas offensive coordinator after being a serial state championship winner at a local high school.  He brought along several of his high school players and after his system was junked, most of them ended up elsewhere.   A week after Malzahn was let go, then-Arkansas know-it-all athletic director Frank Broyles said “this offense won’t work in the SEC unless your quarterback runs the ball.”  

Auburn QB Chris Todd is no running QB, with only 9 runs in 5 games (not counting 2 sacks) with a long run of 6 yards. While every other Tiger would count a win over Alabama as their single-game goal for the season, Malzahn might have a different answer, and he’d love to put up a big number on the Razorbacks Saturday.

Tim Tebow’s not the only concussed Gator. The brilliant Moses Jenkins is a special teams ace for Florida, and he’s out with a concussion.  The combination of Jenkins’ effectiveness on coverage teams and Trindon Holliday’s brilliance as a returner for LSU makes this item worth mentioning.

Anyone, Anywhere, Anytime…Any Losses?:  Fresno State’s “Anyone, Anywhere, Anytime” scheduling philosophy is admirable, but hasn’t worked out well for the Bulldogs.   My handicapping colleague Matty Baiungo points out that Fresno is 1-3 with their 3 losses all being very competitive affairs to opponents that are a combined 15-0 thus far this season.  Matty, Erik Schepoink, and Dave Fobare all offer valuable information in my Maximum Profit Football Weekly.  The Max is available for just over $6 per week and that comes with a load of free bonuses.  Call 770-649-1078 to subscribe.

Coordinated Failure: The aforementioned Gus Malzahn at Auburn and Mark Whipple at Miami are a couple of instances where a new offensive coordinator has worked out brilliantly.  But the move of former Illinois OC Mike Locksley to New Mexico to be head coach in the ABQ has been an abject failure for both schools, who have a combined 1-7 pointspread record and 0-8 straight up mark against 1-A opponents.  Locksley figured to have growing pains installing a new offense, but an age discrimination suit by a secretary, and a punching an assistant coach were not to be expected.  “Locksley Era off to Horrible Start at New Mexico” is likely not the kind of headline that folks in LoboLand were hoping for.  UNM finally got a cover when they stayed inside the 34-point spread against a Texas Tech team distracted by Twittergate.  

When Locksley’s replacement at Illinois, Mike Schultz, was hired as Illini offensive coordinator last year, he made a lot of noise about playing offense at a fast pace.  But apparently, the pace doesn’t matter when you refuse to throw the ball downfield.  The dink and dunk game doesn’t fit Juice Williams strengths and the senior QB has gone from second tier Heisman candidate to backup, as averaging 8 points per game against 1-A opponents has led to Williams’ benching.   Missouri, Ohio State, and Penn State are the three opponents, but even accounting for the meaty schedule, it’s been a disaster for everybody’s preseason “now team” in the Big 10.

All the best to you this weekend in your all your college football wagering endeavors, as well as everything else you do. 

Wyoming visits Florida Atlantic on Saturday in a game you probably haven’t paid much attention to.  In Boca Raton, at 4PM EDT on Saturday it’s supposed to be in the high 80’s and humid.  It’s been 32 degrees or cooler every night this week in Laramie, with highs in the high 60’s most days, though it did get up to 75 on about Tuesday or so.  Altitude team heading to a steambath might not be an optimal situation for the highlanders.  Wyoming is hydrating, bringing Pedialyte and Alka Seltzer, etc. But you can’t replicate heat and humidity in practice when you’re from a dry, cool environment. 

Wyoming is 2-2. They benefited from a 9-1 turnover advantage in their two wins over Weber State and UNLV, yet won those games only by a combined 10 points.   UNLV win was last Saturday, and they may be looking at a bit of a letdown in a non-conference sandwich situation. 

FAU opened losing to Nebraska and South Carolina, but they never show in those kind of games.  Last week the conference opener with Louisiana-Monroe was a tough loss, FAU outgained ULM by 144 yards but mistakes at the end of both halves led to a loss.   They’re desperate for a win here to avoid starting 0-4.  QB Rusty Smith, sore-shouldered last year, is healthy and their top WR from the past two years gets back from suspension.

Wyoming plays at a fast pace, and the goal is usually to wear out the defense but the athletic FAU kids are a lot more used to the heat and humidity and this could backfire on the Cowboys.  

Now Wyoming does have a freshman QB playing well since his insertion in the lineup (90 passes without a INT).  But FAU has the better athletes, is an experienced club, and is hungry for a win.  Wyoming could be gassed in the second half.  With the caveat that I do better with dogs than favorites, I think hungry FAU looks like a solid play here against a Wyoming club off a lucky win and playing in oppressive heat that they aren’t used to.

Properly judging a team’s performance using statistics is a key to success this time of year.  Some teams are not as good as their numbers.   Others are better than advertised due to luck, level of competition, unfavorable or favorable matchups, etc.   Most bettors who drive line moves at sportsbooks, especially early in the week, have some statistical backing for their plays.

The late, great, Mike Lee taught me to ignore games against 1-AA competition when compiling statistics, and his business partner Gail still provides statistical data at Friends of Mike Lee Sports.  Knowing how domination of 1-AA opponents can skew results, I had to laugh when I saw NC State referred to as “college football’s best defense” on ESPN’s web site this week.   NC State has played four games, and two were against Murray State and Gardner-Webb.   Back out the 1-AA creampuffs and NCSU allows opponents 5.1 yards per play, which is 44th in the country when only 1-A competition is taken into consideration.  

How do you judge Virgina Tech’s 272-59 rushing advantage over Miami? Is it a sign of life in the trenches for a team that was outrushed by a combined 475-150 in their games against Alabama and Nebraska?   More likely it’s just the advantage of playing in Blacksburg, where strange things happen and a special teams disasters make opponents wilt.

“Meaningless” plays at the end of a game don’t get any more meaningful than the strange doings in the Air Force/San Diego State game.  Air Force, closing a 17.5 point favorite in a game that was as low as -16 and as high as -18.5, led the Aztecs 26-2 before SDSU scored a TD with just over 3 minutes left.  It looked like a half-point cover was in the offing but the Aztecs missed the extra point, still trailing by 18, to the delight of those who had -16 and +18.5.   So the middle was in the air, right?  Not exactly.  SD State scored on a 30-yard TD pass on the games closing play for the 26-14 final.  You really couldn’t make a big case that Air Force deserved the cover, as the Falcons didn’t score an offensive TD and notched only 12 first downs, but benefited from a 6-0 turnover advantage.

Other teams that were -4 or worse in turnovers and lost despite outgaining their opponents include Buffalo (lost to Temple), Maryland (lost to Rutgers), Mississippi State (lost to LSU), Miami-Ohio (lost to Kent State), UNLV (lost to Wyoming), and North Texas State (lost to MTSU).   A lot of big turnover edges occur in mismatches, but most of those games were lined pretty competitively.  Just a ton of mistakes and bad luck influencing those contests.

Turnover beneficiary LSU visits turnover victim Georgia this Saturday in a key SEC matchup.  The Bengal Tigers are fresh off their 4-0 turnover edge in a miracle win at Mississippi State where they suffered a 21-12 first down disadvantage.   Georgia is suffering a 12-3 turnover deficit on the season, turning the ball over exactly 3 times in all 4 of their games.   The Bulldogs are pretty lucky to be 3-1.  So do you figure those patterns continue or is a reversal in order?

All the commentators who think that Tim Tebow should have been out of the game with Florida up 31-7 in the third quarter at Kentucky have short memories.  How did Oklahoma surpass Texas last year despite losing to the Longhorns?  By scoring early, late, and often.  Margin of victory absolutely matters in the polls, and nobody knows that better than Urban Meyer, who is well over 60% to the pointspread in his college head coaching career.  There’s also the small matter of the Heisman Trophy, which Tebow won’t win if he’s being pulled with a mere 24-point lead in the 3rd quarter of conference games.

We’re used to Jim Grobe’s Wake Forest teams playing smart football.  So the running back running the wrong way on first and goal from the 4 in OT, leading to a fumble and a 3-point loss to Boston College was a surprise.   But that wasn’t the only mental mistake by the Deacons.   Wake could possibly have won in regulation if not for consecutive boneheaded plays early in the fourth quarter.   BC was up 7 and on their own 34 facing a 3rd and 33 situation.  On an overthrown ball over the middle that was nowhere close to the first down Wake Forest safety Cyhl Quarles nailed the receiver for a needless and obvious pass interference call.  For good measure Quarles then hovered over the receiver in a menacing pose, which could have drawn another flag.  On the ensuing first down play BC threw downfield for 23 yards when two confused defenders collided, knocking each other down, setting up a BC touchdown a few plays later. 

A near replay of the Colts/Dolphins game of the previous week took place when Fresno State visited Cincinnati.   Frenso won first downs (25-15), rushing (290-57), and time of possession (43:42-16:18) but lost due to some quick strike big plays by their talented opponent. Fresno was in a terrible scheduling situation, off of tough defeats to Wisconsin (in OT) and Boise when they traveled east to take on the high powered Bearcats, and hanging around with UC for the pointspread cover was impressive.    Pat Hill had some questionable teams for a couple of years but despite the three consecutive losses he’s got a good team together this season.  

We’re sitting with a 57%+ pointspread record so far this season on our late phone service, building on our many years of football success.  If you’d like to learn about our program or get on board, call 1-770-649-1078.

Missouri travels to Reno to take on Nevada on Friday night. Online sportbooks and Vegas books have Missouri favored by 7 with a total of 61.5. Hotel casinos favored by traveling Show-Me-Staters should be carrying the game at 7.5 if they know what they’re doing. These teams played in Columbia last September and it wasn’t pretty for the Wolf Pack. The Tigers rolled 69-17 on yardage of 651-362. It was men vs. boys athletically as you can see in the rockin’ highlights.

Granted, Missouri lost a ton of talent to the draft. But Mizzou wiped out a highly touted Illinois team in their opener, which they followed up with a dangerously close win over Bowling Green and a solid win over 1-AA Furman. New QB Blaine Gabbert has 8 TD’s and no interceptions. He’s gotta be licking his chops when he watches the Nevada secondary on film. The Wolf Pack are allowing over 12 yards per pass attempt in their two games.

Nevada was completely outclassed against a Notre Dame club that had no athletic edge in subsequent games against Michigan and Michigan State. After a week off the mistake-prone Wolf Pack lost at Colorado State 35-20 despite outgaining CSU. An 0-8 turnover disadvantage in their two losses defines Nevada’s season thus far. Nevada QB Colin Kaepernick seemingly peaked as a freshman, and is struggling in his third year in the pistol offense, with only 1 TD pass and 4 INT’s. His longest completion is for 32 yards and he’s averaging only 6.5 yards per pass attempt.

Warm, dry, windless weather is expected in Reno, with temps falling from the 80’s into the 70’s during the game. Northern Nevada’s not the easiest place to roll into and play, and altitude could become an issue. But despite the loss of talent that fueled their success the past couple of years, Mizzou appears to have some significant matchup advantages. Good luck if you decide to do anything with this game.

1. Georgia’s Defense: In Marc Richt’s first 95 games as Georgia head coach, his Bulldogs gave up 37 points or more twice.   In the last 12 games his Bulldogs have given up 37 or more points 7 times.   Recruiting gurus always rave about the talent and speed that matriculates to Athens.  That’s why the heat is on defensive coordinator Willie Martinez.  

2. Oklahoma State’s Offense: The one game that the UGA defense played well was against supposedly high-powered Oklahoma State. Houston (#101 defense last year) and Rice (#113 defense last year) have also slowed down the Cowboys.  Despite all their returning weaponry, the Cowboys have dropped from 487 yards per game last year to 364 yards per game this year.  On Saturday, Okie State gained only 351 yards against Rice, who gave up 516 yards to UAB (UAB?) and 560 yards to Texas Tech.   The Pickens Football Project has some injuries, but the lack of production against three defenses nobody will compare to the ‘85 Bears is startling.

3. USC’s Efficiency: There’s nothing wrong with USC that not being -3 in turnovers against a good team won’t fix.   Rushing yardage was 250-56 in favor of USC with Trojans going for 7.6 yards per rush to 1.7 for the Huskies.  That’s why a lot of smart people are betting on USC (even at the giant number against Wazzou) and against Washington this week.  The non-entity status of Mitch Mustain is just flat out strange. A solid starter for Arkansas as a true freshman, and the nation’s top QB recruit at the time, now he’s just buried on the Trojan depth chart.

4. East Carolina (and Skip Holtz’s Shot at the Notre Dame Job):  East Carolina knocked off West Virgina and Virgina Tech early, had a lull due to injuries, then shocked homestanding Tulsa in the CUSA championship game. Barely squeaking by always tough 1-AA entrant App State in their opener wasn’t alarming.  And losses to West Virginia and North Carolina are understandable on the surface.  But the combined 484-941 yardage deficit in those two games less so.   12th year senior Patrick Pinkney is averaging only 4.8 yards per pass attempt, down from 7.4 last year.  No matter how high Lou Holtz piles the pressure of expectations on Charlie Weis at Notre Dame, if Skip doesn’t turn it around, he won’t be in line in South Bend.

5. The Traditional 1PM Start Time: Lots of old-timers here in the South miss the traditional 1PM start time.  Knowing this, and free of TV dictating a start time, Clemson tried kick off the TCU game at 1PM.  Negative reaction from fans, presumably tailgaters, led Clemson to move it to 3:30 EDT.  With nearly every game televised somewhere (am I still paying for GamePlan?  If so, why?), how is a matchup as attractive as TCU/Clemson only available online?

6. The Job Security of Coaches: Washington hires Steve Sarkisian and knocks off USC after being 0-12 under Ty Willingham.  Syracuse, outgained by 3.8 miles in the previous 4 years under Greg Robinson, is now competitive and fighting hard under Doug Marrone, beating a 9-win Big 10 team that returned a lot of starters on Saturday.   No big influx of talent at either place, just a new attitude under a new sheriff.  Message board dwellers and boosters are watching, all ready to rachet up the pressure on the administrators responsible for the fate of their school’s football coach.  Patience with a guy like Frank Beamer (24-40-2 in his first 6 years at Virginia Tech) is a thing of the past.  Beamer would be a special teams coach somewhere right now if he had been born a dozen years later.

7. Paul Johnson’s Offense Against Athletic Defenses: PJ’s still a Top 5 head coach in my book, but it’s tough to ignore a single offensive TD against Clemson and 95 yards rushing against Miami.   Legacy note: Navy earned only 218 yards in losing to Pitt Saturday.  Are defensive coordinators catching up to the triple option?  If so, Johnson’s smart enough to adapt.

8. The Sanctity of Double Digit Favorites: Remember when being favored by double digits meant something? New Mexico is 0-3, has been outscored 122-29, outgained 1466-692, and is favored by 10 over New Mexico State.  Could the Lobos be the worst double digit favorite in college football since 0-10 Cal was favored by 12 at Rutgers to conclude the 2001 season?  The Bears won but didn’t cover that day.  Before you get too excited about taking points with the Aggies, realize that NMSU was down 31-0 after 3 quarters to UTEP, and were never really in their home loss to Idaho.  Sandwiched between those defeats, they beat Prairie View A&M (ranked 214th by Sagarin) by a field goal.

9. Las Vegas Booking College Football:  Most Vegas sportsbooks have no interest in taking a significant bet on a college football side or (especially) total until the initial battles are fought offshore at online sportsbooks.   Meanwhile, corporate consolidation means fewer unique lines are available.  If you’re heading to the desert, the Hilton and the M are the most aggressive books in town and have the most propositions to shoot at. 

 10. Male Sideline Reporters:  Tokenism, thy name is Jack Arute.