First, look to avoid all props that have multiple results possible. Turn the odds into a probability percentage (like 3-1=25%, 4-1=20%, etc.) add them up and some of these things are at 180% (an 80% takeout) or more.   Look to bet yes/no, over/under, team vs. team, etc. You can find good things even with 30 cent lines (the equivalent of -115 on both sides).  The juice built into bets like “first player to score TD” and “margin of victory” is enormous. 

Secondly, take your weak books and compare their props to what the lines are for the same props at strong books that have been hammered over mutliple days.   You can find bets that are -170 at a sharp book that your weak or local book has at -115 for the same prop.  I find good plays every year simply by comparing and contrasting. Good luck in the Super Bowl.

Proposition wagering on the Super Bowl grows in popularity every year, but props are being released extra slowly this year. While some Vegas casinos have finally started releasing them, offshore and online sportsbooks have been a lot slower in getting things cranked up this year.   I had planned on releasing some props to my customers by now, but there just isn’t a lot out there as of yet.   When it comes to posting props, offshore sportsbooks are at least a couple of days behind compared to where they’ve been in past years.

The reason?   Here’s one theory. Offshore sportsbooks largely have a smarter clientele than they did a few years ago when more people were playing online.  The serious bettors are still around, while the casual, less-informed players have largely gone.   So the online sportsbooks want to let the value seekers in Vegas take their shots, and then when the lines get straightened out, the offshores will largely just copy the props they want to have out there.  

We’ll give you a “no-handicapping” prop strategy on Monday.  So keep your eyes open for that and have a great weekend.

A few notes worth noting for those interested in betting on the AFC and NFC Championship games this weekend.

Jets at Colts:

• There was some Colts -7 early, especially laying -115 or so, but the line has been bet up to a flat 7.5.
• The big mover of the football weekend is the total in this game.  Opened at 41, which didn’t last long, now down to 39. 
• When the Colts famously benched their starters in Game 15 they were outgaining the Jets 296-154.
• The Jets are practically a reincarnation of the Super Bowl champion 2000 Ravens.  A ferocious, disruptive, turnover-creating defense, a solid running game, and a quarterback that they’re terrified of trusting.  
• Mark Sanchez, recently compared unfavorably with Jamarcus Russell, has averaged 5.6 yards per pass attempt or less in 3 of his past 4 games, and he has 14 TD passes and 21 interceptions on the season.
• While it’d be nice to have the perpetually injured Bob Sanders around, the remaining pieces of the Colts defense are pretty healthy.

Vikings at Saints:

• The Saints opened as a 3.5-point favorite, which was bet up to 4, and is now back down to 3.5 in most places.
• The total has been a pretty solid 52 in Vegas, but is heading upward in the desert, and has crept up to 53 at some offshore and online sportsbooks.
• The AFC Championship game is not the only game featuring Buddy Ryan’s influence. Both defensive coordinators, the Saints’ Gregg Williams and Minny’s Leslie Frazier, are Buddy Ryan disciples.
• The Vikings were the only NFC team to go undefeated at home, and their last 5 wins have been by 17 points or more.  The road has been a different story, with losses in 3 of the last 4 trips being losses, all by 6 or more.
• The Saints of the first dozen weeks of the season and last week were dominant.  If you can forgive the final month, and there would be reasons to do that, this team something special.
• As fantastic has Favre has been all year, you would think he would come up with a big game, wouldn’t you?  After all, this is what he came back for. 
• The Saints are a lot healthier than they’ve been for a while.  Vikings DT Kevin Williams hasn’t been practicing (knee), but will go on Sunday.

Hopefully, something here at least gave you some food for thought.  While there are only two games in football, we anticipate a lot of value in the basketball this weekend.   Call 770-649-1078 to take advantage of our hard work and experience.

Hopefully something in these notes on the weekend NFL games will help you out in the Divisional round.

Cardinals at Saints. The Saints haven’t played a good game since they wiped out the Patriots on the last Monday nighter of November, and have arguably been outplayed by 5 straight opponents.   They weren’t putting forth great effort in the last couple of weeks,  but there’s got to be a little concern there.  On the other hand, could the Cardinals lack energy after leaving it all on the field in their classic 51-45 OT win over the Packers?  Teams off of wins where both teams scored a lot of points aren’t a positive subset in the NFL.   Saints favored by 7, which has been solid.  The total has been bet up a bit and there are a lot of 57’s around at Vegas and online sportsbooks as this is written.

Colts at Ravens: Ravens certain to want to establish the run, but obviously their 52 runs and 10 passes in New England could be credited to the shape of the game.  And the 47 total points in that one were a pretty high score considering that there was only 464 yards of offense combined for by the two clubs in New England. But no way the Ravens put too much trust in Flacco.   Colts resting hasn’t worked in the past and overall they’ve lost their opening playoff appearance in 6 of their last 9 seasons. Worth noting that each of the last 4 games in this building have seen 44 points or more scored. Colts are favored by 6.5 in most places but some online sportsbooks have it at 6 and the total has been bet down to 44.

Cowboys at Vikings.  Dallas is red hot, and in their 4-game winning streak they’ve outyarded their opponents 1732-1122.  They’ve outgained 7 straight teams and are playing impressively.  Vikings lost interest and tried to keep Favre fresh late in the season, but maintained very strong home performance.  They’re the only NFC team to go undefeated at home and won their 5 home affairs by 17, 26, 26, 20, and 37 (nice effort, Giants).    The line opened at Vikings -2 and has been drifting up to the point where it’s 2.5 minus significant juice and possibly headed to 3.  The total was bet down from 48 pretty quickly and has been at 46 since Monday at Vegas and online sportsbooks.

Jets at Chargers:  The only outdoor game of the weekend is being played in the city with America’s nicest weather and low 60’s and light breezes are expected on Sunday. Interesting matchup as the Jets pass defense and Chargers pass offense are both phenomenally good.  If the Jets ace secondary can slow down the Chargers rangy receivers (all 6-4 or taller) they’ll be one of the few defenses to accomplish the feat.  This is the one game that saw the most action on the side, there were briefly some lines as high as 9 (even 9.5), which quickly came down to 7.5 and now there are a lot of 7’s. The total has been bet down from an early 43 to 42.  If there’s a public side this weekend, the Jets are it.

Good luck in this weekend’s NFL.

Jets at Bengals:  Bengals are favored by 2.5, with a total of 33.5.  It’ll be cold in the Queen City, with temps around 20 during the game.  Wind is not projected to be a factor, but there may be some snow flurries.  Jets are smoking hot, and have the number 1 defense statistically, as well as the number 1 running game.  And those raw yardage ratings aren’t phony, they are also very strong on yards per play on defense as well as yards per rush on offense.  On the other hand, the Jets current streak of 5 wins in 6 games came against 3 losing teams and 2 teams that simply weren’t trying at all.  So how hot are they really?   And only Jay Cutler, with 26 (in 555 passes) had more interceptions than Mark Sanchez’s 20 (in 364 passes). 

Despite suggesting before the game that they would be working hard to play well, the Bengals mailed it in against the Jets last Sunday night.    Tough to ignore how the Bengals were simply manhandled on both lines of scrimmage, but on the other hand, their defense is in the top 10 in both yards per rush, and yards per pass, same as the Jets.   So was the manhandling really a reflection of New York’s physical superiority or simply a lack of effort?  

Eagles at Cowboys: Dallas is favored by 4 with a total of 45.   It’s going to be cold in Dallas, so the roof will be closed.   Left for dead in early December, the Cowboys roared to a dominating three-game winning streak to conclude the season.  Last week’s 24-0 win over this rival was a solid one, as Dallas had a yardage edge of 474-228.  The Eagles were trying on Sunday, and lost the division and a playoff home game as a result.   The Eagles do not own a win over a playoff team, while the Cowboys have not had great success in big games, particularly under Wade Phillips.   Dallas is playing for their first playoff win since 1996.

News comes overnight that Oklahoma State’s Perrish Cox, one of the top cornerbacks in the country, has been suspended for missing curfew.   The trashing of his coach, Mike Gundy, on Facebook is a lovely touch. Cox is an outstanding cover corner and was to shadow Ole’ Miss’ productive and underrated Shay Hodge.  

Seton Hall is in a touch scheduling spot, suffering two brutal losses in conference play to West Virgnia and Syracuse and now traipsing to Cancun for a game with Virginia Tech.  Virginia Tech’s point guard Malcolm Delaney, one of the top players in the ACC and the straw that stirs the Hokies drink, is out with an ankle injury suffered earlier this week against Longwood.   His backup is young and inexperienced.  I had wanted to play Virginia Tech, but Delaney is extremely important to his team, and I will be passing the game now.

Navy, a hard-trying underdog, seems to fit basic minor bowl strategy today, against a Missouri team that has becomed accustomed to more grandiose holiday plans than the Texas Bowl.  But there’s a surprising amount favoring Missouri today.

• Their win over Army was the only game that saw Navy outgain an opponent since October 24th.  They were outgained by Temple, Notre Dame, Delaware, and Hawaii during that stretch.
• Navy’s starting center was declared academically ineligible rather late in the game and his replacement has only been playing with the first team for a couple of days.
• Mizzou can throw the ball, and Navy gave up 452 yards passing to Notre Dame and 366 yards passing to Hawaii late in the season.   Navy’s secondary is more athletic than it used to be, but good passing attacks did some damage late in the year.
• Missouri’s Blaine Gabbert toughed out an ankle injury midseason but has 8 TD passes and 0 INT’s since his return to health.  
• Service academies always play well in Texas.  The state has a lot of kids who love football and are good, but just not athletic enough or big enough for the Big 12.  The academies scoop them up and then reward them with trips back to the Lone Star State.   But Missouri recruits Texas heavily and their Texans are thrilled to be playing in Houston as well.
• Missouri has held 11 of 12 opponents below 4.0 yards per rush and have one of the top run D’s in the land.  They haven’t faced an option attack, but their stout defensive line seems to be more equipped than most to handle their duties and the defensive ends and cornerbacks have had extra time to be schooled on stopping the option.
• These Navy seniors are 0-3 in bowl games and are motivated, but Mizzou seems surprisingly motivated as well and has practiced well.

I tend not to go against “basic minor bowl strategy” even in the face of matchup advantages.  And I understand a play on Navy today, though I’d much prefer a +7 or a +7.5 (solid 6.5 as I write this).  Will root for the Middies, as I always root for the academy kids.  But Navy’s not going to have my backing at the current line.

Nic Grigsby looks to be playing for Arizona in tonight’s Holiday Bowl despite his shoulder injury, but money has poured in on Nebraska.  At one point this game was at a pick.  Now the Huskers are as high as a 3-point pick. 

Something to consider whether looking to bet either side or total in the Holiday Bowl tonight is the massive success that Bo Pelini has had when his defense is in a bowl game.   After a decade in the NFL, Pelini entered college football as the defensive coordinator of Nebraska in 2003.  That season, Pelini’s Cornhuskers held Michigan State to 3 points.

In 2004 as Oklahoma’s co-coordinator, Pelini’s Sooners were destroyed by the scintillating USC Trojans 55-19.

From 2005-2007 Pelini-coordinated LSU defenses held their bowl opponents to 3, 14, and 24 points.  The 24 points were in LSU’s 38-24 championship win over Ohio State in which LSU had a 31-10 lead after the first drive of the second half and the Buckeyes earned some garbage time yards and points.

In 2008, Nebraska’s defense held Clemson’s high-powered offense to 210 yards in a 26-21 win over the Tigers.

Take away the explosion of points by a historically good USC team and Pelini defenses are very, very good in bowl games. 

Additionally, Nebraska’s defense has excelled in their biggest games this year.   Oklahoma and Nebraska combined for a single offensive TD against the Huskers.   At a Virginia Tech team that proved to have a decent offense, Nebraska held the Hokies to 190 yards and 9 first downs in the first 58 minutes of that game before a freakish long pass by Virginia Tech won the game. 

The Huskers figure to have a sound game plan and be ready to play tonight.   But you can’t always say the same about their offense.

On the NFL season, betting every underdog is ever so slightly profitable, even with the juice.  This is despite the fact that blindly betting road favorites in the NFL, is also ever so slightly profitable, even with the juice.    Favorites enjoyed a 10-6 mark on the week just past.   The weekend started with the Steelers outright loss at Cleveland.  With losses to the Browns, Raiders, and Chiefs, Pittsburgh has now lost outright as a double digit favorite 3 times in their last 4 games.  Throw in their loss to the Bengals the week before that and you have 4 outright losses in 5 weeks as a better than TD favoirte.  That’s gotta be historic, doesn’t it?

Monday night was a 7/11 game for the Cardinals, 7 turnovers and only 11 first downs.   The Niners got a nice win even though they passed for only 3.9 yards per attempt with a pair of interceptions themselves. Take away the Alex Smith kneeldowns, and the Niners rushed for over 5.8 yards per attempt, which is pretty impressive.  Back to the Cards turnovers, one was a fumble on the final play of the first half at midfield.  No harm done.  It seems as though there should be special categories for turnovers.  A first and goal interception in the opponent’s end zone is debilitating.  But on third and long an interception 45 yards down the field is likely a better net result than what you’d get on a punt on the next play.  I’m sure somebody’s doing a “situational turnover” number.  I just haven’t seen it yet.

Similarly, the Jets/Bucs game wasn’t all that different than the Monday nighter.  The Jets had scoring “drives” of 9, 22, 31, and 7 yards as the Bucs had 3 turnovers and a grand total of 6 first downs in the game in which they averaged 2.2 yards per play.  Not per rush, per play.  First downs don’t always tell the tale, as the Titans had only a 19-15 first down edge in their 47-7 whipping of the Rams.  The Titans had at least 5 plays of 30 yards or more from scrimmage in that game, and any team with the blazing speed and big play ability of Chris Johnson and Vince Young is not going to have a lot of choppy drives.   In fact, their first two TD’s were on a 4-play, 65-yard drive and a 2 play, 82-yard drive.   The Titans/Rams game was an interesting case of a team that started the season 0-6 being favored in a game by nearly 2 TD’s later in the season.   But that tends to happen when a team on a winning streak is facing a team quarterbacked by somebody named Keith Null.

All 12 scoring drives in the Giants/Eagles game were of 59 yards or more.  The Eagles gained “only 374 yards on Sunday night in scoring 45 points.   They were massively efficient, with their 7 non-scoring drives gaining only a total of 15 points.  That does include taking a knee to end both the half and the game, but is still meaningful.  Philly opponents average more possession time than the quick-strike Eagles do.  Yet Rick Gosselin points out that the 2006 Colts were the only team to ever win the Super Bowl without possessing the ball longer than their opponents.  Incredibly, it was as recently as the Sunday before Thanksgiving that the Giants had the league’s “#1 defense” as judged by yardage per game allowed.   Now they rank 15th in the more accurate yards per play allowed, and the New Yorkers have permitted 32.3 points per game over their last 8 contests.

Our newsletter, the Maximum Profit Football Weekly (aka “The Max”) is on a nice hot streak of 59-33 (over 64%) against the pointspread.  Our Bowl Max comes out this week with a full analysis of every bowl game. Every NFL playoff game will be covered as well.  This week’s NFL Max is waiting for you when you call 1-770-649-1078 to subscribe. 

The Packers hot streak is no big surprise.  They have been very impressive both offensively and defensively on the line of scrimmage, and have started to clean up some of their problems, like getting sacked, poor special teams, and being the most penalized team in the league.  Aaron Rodgers has now been sacked only 6 times in the last 4 games and the Pack committed only 4 penalties for a total of 30 yards in their win over the lifeless Bears on Sunday.

I’m told that the sports books in Vegas seem painfully slow lately.  It will be interesting to see what the Nevada Gaming Control Board numbers indicate for the football season.  Online and offshore sportsbooks are still doing better than most realize, though they certainly aren’t enjoying the kind of hypergrowth they once did.   No matter where you’re betting, go beat them this weekend. 

Doubt there’s much “rookie QB vs rookie QB” history in the NFL, but Josh Freeman’s Tampa Bay Bucs take on Mark Sanchez’s New York Jets this week.   So do you play the under due to conservative game plans given to these inexperienced signal callers?  Or will they make mistakes that provide “silver platter” scoring opportunities to their opponents?

San Diego bettors laying 13 or so had to be confident when the Chargers started the 4th quarter with a 2nd and 4 on the Cleveland 34 and a 27-7 lead.  The Chargers had nearly a 200 yard edge in total yardage at the time as well. But the Bolts relaxed with the game in hand and Brady Quinn looked like a superstar to earn the Browns the cover.  Seems to be the kind of thing that happens with some frequency with big road favorites in the NFL.  

Tom Brady’s getting some heat in the media for his uneven performances, but even with a pair of interceptions, when you throw for 352 yards on only 29 passes, it’s not all on you.   The Patriots generated little pass rush in Miami on Sunday and Chad Henne (Chad Henne!) kept attacking the same spots on the field.  It was time to retool New England’s aging defense and they’ve got some guys learning on the job right now.   

Is being inside opponent’s territory nine times yet not scoring a TD an NFL record?  If so, the Rams made a little history in their loss at the Bears. The Rams play hard, their special teams and defense did some good things Sunday, but oooooh, that offense.  St. Louis is inept on the offensive line, beat up at the receiver position, have Kyle Boller as quarterback, and Steven Jackson has lost a step at running back.   Boller had 113 yards on 32 attempts, for 3.5 yards per pass attempt with an interception.  Down 8 inside of 4 minutes, the Rams had the ball on their own 45 and threatened to enter Bears territory for the 10th time all game, but Boller threw his interception on the first play of that drive, effectively ending the ballgame.  St. Louis dominated the punting game, young Welker-esque Texas Tech product Danny Amendola averaged 12 yards per punt return while punter Donnie Jones averaged 45.3 yards per punt and pinned the Bears inside their 20 with 6 of his 7 punts.   That punting helped lead to a rare “no TD but pointspread cover” for an NFL team.

Delaware is introducing some new parlay card options, including a fresh one each Monday night that allows bettors to parlay Monday night football with the next week’s games.  With the requirement of three-games or more, bettors had no reason to check out Monday night football in the First State’s racinos that host the sports betting.  The reason for mentioning the new offerings centers around something called the “Delaware Favorites” card, which keys on the Eagles, Ravens, and Redskins and let’s bettors pick from games over the next three weeks.   Seems like there might be some value there if you like a team to improve or tank, as I’m unaware of other vehicles that allow you to parlay the same teams in mulitple weeks like this.

Have a feeling that NFL bettors who focus on the desperate teams aren’t having productive years.  The 49ers, Falcons, Steelers and Bengals all failed to the spread in those roles Sunday.  The Texans have now dropped three straight in “desperate” situations, and owner Bob McNair hasn’t had the expression of a guy happy with his head coach in recent weeks.  With all the mediocrity in the wild card chase, these situations continue to come up week after week.  

Heading into the Monday Night game in Green Bay, underdogs had enjoyed a 10-5 week against the pointspread in the NFL.   But that’s a result of some games being judged as more-or-less even going to the small dog, as 1-point favorites Houston, San Francisco, and Dallas all failed.  So it lacked the feel of a big underdog week.