Ordinarily smart people are informing me of some weather related unders that are supposedly good plays in today’s college football and Sunday’s NFL.

But just because a forecast calls for some rain and wind at some point, if it isn’t happening during the game, it really doesn’t matter.

Let’s look at games supposedly “in the path” of Tropical Storm Hanna.  The weather is the current forecast for the three hours while the game is being played.

Buffalo at Pitt: Few showers 11 MPH winds.

Oregon State at Penn State: Showers, 9 MPH winds.

Georgia Tech at Boston College: Few showers, 9 MPH winds.

West Virginia at East Carolina: Greenville was hammered overnight but gametime here is 4:30 PM. Few showers, wind starting at 24 MPH and down to 14 MPH by the end of the game.

Ole’ Miss at Wake Forest:  Winston-Salem is west of Greenville and didn’t bear the brunt of the storm.  Mostly cloudy, 16 MPH.

UConn at Temple: Rain, 8-14 MPH winds.  Storm cranks up later this afternoon, after the game.

Rams at Eagles: Sunny, 10MPH winds.  Strorm that hits after Temple game is long gone by 1PM Sunday.

Chiefs at Patriots: Partly Cloudy, 10MPH winds.

While you can make a case that the East Carolina/West Virginia game might be a weather play, things may clear up there as well.   The first half under may be the best play in that one, so keep an eye on that game as the telecast comes on.  Maybe keep an eye on the winds at Wake Forest as well.

Overall, however, there’s been a real overreaction to the potential weather implications in many of these games, by people who just couldn’t be bothered to take the time to find out what the gametime forecast would be.

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The NFL kicks off Thursday night, and quite frankly, you don’t have a clue.

Oh, you think you have a clue.  You’ve probably spent a good bit of time this summer studying the NFL.  You’ve looked at roster moves, at quarterback depth charts, and at young players ready to emerge.  You’ve poured over draft rankings, and have looked at starter-on-starter performance during the preseason.

And that goes double if you’re wasting your time participating in a fantasy football league.

But there’s a problem.  All your hard work is for naught.  You have absolutely no idea what’s going to happen.  After all, people with more knowledge than you, a more significant football background than you, and a direct line to decision makers around the league, have no idea what will happen.  So how could you?

I present to you ESPN’s panel of experts predictions prior to last season.   These journalists, analysts, and commentators cover the league full time. Several played in the league, and played well.  Yet they had no clue last season.  Just look at their 2007 NFL projections.

The Giants won the Super Bowl last year.  Yet all 12 of ESPN’s experts predicted that the New Yorkers would not even make the playoffs.

The Giants won at Green Bay to win the NFC Championship.  All 12 ESPNers predicted the Packers would not even make the playoffs.

In their first playoff game, the Giants won at Tampa Bay.  All 12 of ESPN’s experts predicted that the division-winning Bucs would not make the playoffs.

Conversely, the panel of experts unanimously projected that the Bears would win their division.  All 12 were wrong, as the Bears finished 7-9 and failed to make the postseason.

All 12 panelists had the Saints winning their division.  The 7-9 Saints failed to even make the playoffs.

In the AFC, the vast majority picked the Ravens and Broncos to make the playoffs.  Neither was even close.   And going back to previous years wouldn’t yield terribly different results, with very smart people making outlandishly wrong preseason predictions in the NFL.

NFL teams are so close in ability, and have so many players and coaches turn over every single year, it becomes a matter of chemistry. And chemistry is exceedingly tough to predict.

Sure, you can look at the Patriots and know they’re probably going to be good.  And you know the Falcons will mightily struggle (though their defense bears some watching), but the vast majority of NFL teams are probably within about a field goal of each other at this time.  Then injuries, player development, chemistry, coaching, and momentum will take hold and we’ll see some separation.

I’ve got a couple of games that I’m looking at in the NFL this weekend.  But I’ll be looking for reasons to be as lightly involved as possible.  In a week or two (and in some instances, in a day or two) we’ll have a much better handle on these teams.  And there’s a long season ahead of us, with plenty of NFL opportunity.

But this weekend we know nothing.  No matter how much you think you know, realize how limited your knowledge in.  As we open a very long season, don’t put yourself in a position to get hurt this weekend in the NFL.

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With 15 teams of the Top 25 playing teams from 1-AA, the Sun Belt, or the MAC, it was difficult to learn a whole lot in the opening weekend of the college football season.  But it wasn’t a completely uneventful weekend…

ACC Awful: The ACC had a nasty weekend, with enormous nationally-televised losses by Virginia, Virginia Tech, Clemson, and NC State, who failed to cover the spread by a combined 86.5 points.  There was minor success in the conference, however. In their two least visible games against 1-A opposition, the ACC had impressive, pointspread covering road wins by Wake Forest over Baylor and Boston College over Kent State.

Big East Worse: The ACC made every effort to put the Big East out of the football business with their raid a few years ago, but did the Big East a favor this weekend. The ACC’s spotlight losses provided substantial cover for the Big East, which was even worse than the ACC.  Syracuse, Pitt, Louisville, and Rutgers not only all lost, but the last three were all favorites.  The 0-4 quartet underperformed the pointspread marketplace by a combined 80.5 points.

Whoops: But at least the Big East didn’t have parachutists land in the wrong stadium with the game ball.  Fortunately the North Carolina folks had some extra footballs, so the mistaken landing at Duke had no serious repurcussions.

Some Things Never Change: You may have noticed by the results of this weekend, Clemson is still coached by Tommy Bowden, Pitt is still coached by Dave Wannstedt, and Tennessee is still coached by Phil Fulmer.  In retrospect, wouldn’t those gentlemen love to have been one of the 34 1-A teams playing 1-AA opponents last weekend.

Virginia Tech Loss No Fluke: Don’t let the fact that a blocked punt returned for a TD decided the game take away from how substantially East Carolina outplayed Virginia Tech on Saturday.  Virginia Tech benefited from a return for a TD and a PAT return for 2-points themselves.  Pirates outgained Hokies 369-243 and were the better team on Saturday.

Not Your Father’s (or Your Slightly Older Brother’s) Bluegrass Battle: Kentucky and Louisville combined for 927 and 891 total yards in splitting their previous two matchups, but together tallied only 415 yards in their hideous Monday matchup.  Kentucky’s 27-2 win was largely due to their 5-1 turnover advantage, as the Wildcats converted only 13 first downs and won yardage by only 210-205.

Bama Slammer: Great job sandbagging his defense’s ability to the media by Nick Saban.  Offseason personnel issues left them with little defensive depth, or so the storyline went.  Yet despite this “lack of depth”, 21 Tidesmen appear in the “tackles” section of their box score.  Clemson’s Thunder and Lightning, supposedly the best RB duo since Craig James and Erik Dickerson were putting SMU over the salary cap, suffered through a futile evening behind an inexperienced offensive line. James Davis’ carries resulted in gains (mostly) of -1, 2, 2, 2, 2, and 6.   CJ Spiller’s only two carries resulted in +8 and -1.  Spiller did provide Clemson’s lone spark when he returned the second half kickoff for a TD.

Emerald State Blues: A long season may be in store for fans of Washington’s two Pac Ten entrants.  The Washington Huskies struggled to 242 yards of offense in their 44-10 whipping by Oregon, while Washington State managed only 196 yards in a 39-13 shellacking at the hands of Oklahoma State. Ty Willingham has surrounded ace quarterback Jake Locker with very little at UW, while Wazzou has a an experienced team that is changing offensive systems under new coach Paul Wulff.

Turnovers Fuel Upsets: Surprising results that were fueled by favorites suffering turnover margins of -3 or more included Stanford over Oregon State (0-3 turnover disadvantage), Louisiana Tech over Mississippi State (2-5), Bowling Green over Pitt (1-4), Arkansas State over Texas A&M (1-4), 1-AA Cal Poly over San Diego State (1-5), and Kentucky over Louisville (1-5).  The only one of those upsetters that outplayed their opponent on the line of scrimmage was Arkansas State, as the Indians had a suprising 255-133 rushing edge over the Aggies.

Dull Matchups On Tap: We don’t exactly a classic weekend ahead of us.  Not only do we not have a Top 25 vs. Top 25 matchup, but there isn’t a single Top 25 team favored by a touchdown or less this weekend.   But that doesn’t mean that there’s not some value to be had on the card, and we’ll be back tomorrow in an effort to help you find some of that value.

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Smart people had differing opinions on what the new college football clock rules would do to scoring.  While eight is hardly a representative sample, it is worth noting that Thursday and Friday games went over the total at a 6-2 clip.  The Buffalo/UTEP game was middled by the one or two people who were waiting all summer to bet the under, but went over the closing number for everyone else.

Again, eight isn’t much of a sample size.  But it is worth keeping an eye on.  The opinion here is that some teams are looking to play really fast, and will be helped by the new 40-second clock, which added plays to NFL games when instituted.  Other coaches will look to shorten the game by milking the clock, which now runs after out of bounds plays.  Rather than seeing across the board higher scoring or lower scoring, we’ll see certain teams exhibit patterns depending on their preferred style of play.

Offensively talented teams with depth will look to attack.  Outmanned teams hoping to keep it close will slow things down.

College football is becoming more like college basketball, in that coaches, empowered by the rules changes, are putting more focus on controlling the pace of games.

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Each week our team of handicappers scours the college and NFL football landscape to bring you around a dozen selections backed with full writeups on the weekend’s football card.  These games are emailed to you during Monday Night Football, enabling you to get a head start on the next week’s college and pro football card.

This is the 9th year for The Maximum Profit Football Weekly (”The Max”) and in recent years I’ve added handicappers Dave Fobare, Matty Baiungo, and Erik Scheponik as valued contributors to the publication.

This week’s Max was emailed to subscribers last Saturday, and your first copy is ready and waiting for you.  In it you’ll learn of….

• a game in which 69-39 ATS dominance system favors a team that also has nearly a full TD in line value.
• a favorite whose superiority is hidden as a result of a misleading game against this same opponent last year.  That opponent has suffered some serious personnel losses, is changing up their offense, and is ripe to get roasted.
• a cheap shot injury from last season providing one opponent with legitimate motivation today.
• which game should be wipeout time for a favorite ready to pound an opponent that has had a miserable offseason.
• the Sun Belt Conference team that is a live underdog against an overrated team in major transition mode.
• a team led by a talented quarterback who “took one for the team” by playing hurt last year.  He’s ready to explode against an opponent with offensive line personnel that does not fit their new system.
• a rivalry game where the pointspread doesn’t match either the past history or the returning personnel of these two programs.

The Max sells for $199 but is available at the preseason discount rate of $149. We treat our customers (and their privacy) with respect, and we do not engage in any form of telemarketing, nor do we sell our trade your name and contact information.

Subscribe today and the Max will be emailed to you while you’re on the phone with us.  Ask about a special bonus for new subscribers when you call 1-770-649-1078.

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People love to see how the lines move when they first come out.  Those who are ready to bet at the opener are usually pretty informed guys who understand the marketplace.  Certain sports books are willing to take their action, in essence paying for the information of who these sharps like.  The books will then use this knowledge as part of their recipe to determine the “right side” as they try to shade their lines to attract action on from other bettors.   So it makes sense to follow those early moves, right?

In theory, yes.  But here’s the problem.  Some of the moves are false ones.  In recent years a few large bettors have gotten more sophisticated in how they attack the market, and will play a game in the opposite direction of what they like in an effort to get a better number.   A respected group of bettors can play a game at just a few influential sports books at -6 can create a line move in the entire marketplace to -7.  They then bet the underdog much heavier at +7,  getting the number they originally desired via this market manipulation.

There’s an additional reason to take early season line moves with a grain of salt. Opening week in college football (this week) and the NFL (next week) provides a unique circumstance in that a few books have had lines up on these games for a month, while others just post lines six days in advance.  So the moves early in opening week are not on fresh numbers, but on numbers that have been hammered out in the marketplace throughout the month of August.

Trying to determine what sides are the “right sides” based on line moves can be a wise use of a handicapper’s time, but make sure you are aware of the potential of false moves and the unique circumstance of the month-long availability of Week 1 lines.

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Your schedule could fool you this weekend, as the bottom team is not always the home team. There are six games this weekend where bottom team in the schedule listing is actually playing at a neutral site. All six games are being played at NFL venues.

Three sites are home-neutral, though one of those favors the “road” team. Three are purely neutral. It is important to assess what, if any, home field edge is available in each contest, based on proximity, crowd, and playing surface advantages.

Boston College vs. Kent State (Cleveland Browns Stadium): Pair of Field Turf teams playing on grass today. Nearby Kent State has a modest following, averaging less than 10,000 fans per game at home last season. Boston College brought fewer than 4,000 to the ACC Championship Game, so it should be far less here. Slightest of home field edges to KSU.

Oklahoma State vs. Washington State (Qwest Field, Seattle): Artificial surface is what both clubs also play on at home. Wazzou would be better off on their home field across the state, as inhospitable Pullman is notoriously tough to get to. But the Cougars will have the crowd advantage. Modest home field edge to WSU.

Virginia Tech vs. East Carolina (Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte): Grass surface is just like home for both clubs. Home state ECU’s Greenville campus is 250 miles from here, while Blacksburg is only 160 miles away. With Tech’s far greater following and a proximity edge, a pro-Hokie crowd is a given.

Illinois vs. Missouri (Edward Jones Dome, St. Louis). Neutral site game on the border of these two states. Artificial surface familiar to both clubs. More Mizzou fans expected than Illini backers, but close enough to 50/50 that assigning a home field advantage to the Tigers would be a mistake. Making this “Border War” game an annual event would be ideal for fans, less so for two programs who might prefer easy early season wins.

Alabama vs. Clemson (Georgia Dome, Atlanta): Field Turf ballgame between two games who play on grass at home. Neutral site games in this building (SEC Championship, Peach Bowl), are electric affairs. 50/50 crowd split. Nutso fan bases. Terrific atmosphere.

Colorado vs. Colorado State (Invesco Field, Denver): Surface reversal from previous years, as Colorado State now plays at home on Field Turf, Colorado now plays on grass, which is the surface today. Fierce in-state rivalry has led to riot squads utilizing tear gas to control CSU revelers in the past. No edge for either club. Not sure how it will effect the game if Obama is still levitating above the stadium following his sure-to-be mystical Thursday appearance.

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It’s tough to be too excited about the opening of the college football season when so many of the games are so unattractive. Five of the top eight teams in the AP poll are playing 1-AA opponents this week, with Georgia, Ohio State, Oklahoma, LSU, and West Virginia all facing off against lower division foes.

With the 12 game schedule, some schools may be looking to schedule their easiest game first in order to mitigate the effect of offseason misbehavior by their players, which can lead to Game 1 suspensions. If you’re going to be missing a few players you might as well be able to win by merely going through the motions against a Sun Belt or 1-AA team.

For example, Florida State’s numerous three-game academic suspensions won’t matter much in two of those games, as the Seminoles, who don’t play this week, open with consecutive home affairs against Western Carolina and Chattanooga.

Of course, finances are an issue as well. 1-AA teams will serve as sacrificial lambs for the big boys for $300,000 or so, while 1-A teams are getting more expensive. Sun Belt champ Florida Atlantic is getting $900,000 to visit Texas Saturday.

It simply isn’t a terribly interesting card this weekend. There are only four games taking place between BCS conference teams that had winning records last season. And while Illinois/Missouri and Clemson/Alabama are compelling neutral site affairs, Michigan State at Cal and USC at Virginia are merely mildly interesting.

This isn’t to say that there isn’t some value out there from a pointspread perspective, because if your handicapping is on and your opinions are sound, you can make money. But for a fan, or for those who prefer to handicap quality games, this isn’t the week for you.

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If you’re looking to the exhibition season to see how good these NFL teams are, good luck. It is awfully difficult to get a handle on the true strength of NFL teams in the preseason. The action that takes place involves guys who are unlikely to play an important role on their teams, if they even make the club. The second half of these games are often of most interest to Arena Football scouts, as the players have little chance of making it in the NFL.

But the one exception is this week. Coaches want their top players to go through a routine of preparing for a game. They want to give them a little time together to try to regenerate any chemistry that they may have developed the year before. And they hold their breath and hope that nobody gets hurt before they pull them at halftime.

As a result the first halves of the games this week may actually have just a little bit of value for the handicapper who wants to see how these teams stack up. In some cases you may even see teams playing starters vs. starters into the third quarter (to find out you’ll have to check the play-by-play logs if you’re not watching live).

Of course there’s still no Peyton Manning for the Colts, no Tom Brady for the Patriots, and there are other top players being held out of action as well. And the players aren’t stupid, there’s not regular season intensity. But they do try to get some work done this week.

Of course the lack of intensity isn’t the only drawback. Though the starters will be playing, there’s still the issue of not wanting to provide any valuable film for future opponents. So your uncreative offensive scheme matches up against the vanilla defense. But at least this week, in the first half of the games, you’ll have mostly starters playing. And that may be worth paying just the slightest bit of attention to.

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Howard Schnellenberger’s been around the block a few times, to say the least, and he’s done a great job in building the Florida Atlantic program from a gleam in some administrators’ eyes to the top program in the Sun Belt. Of course the top program in the Sun Belt is like saying that you have the best pulled pork barbecue in Northern Minnesota, but still, FAU isn’t half-bad, whipping Memphis in a bowl game last year, hanging around with USF, etc.

But while the Owls have a lot of talent back (relatively speaking), there is still a huge class difference between FAU and the major powers in college football. Their best chance is to catch their major conference opponents not taking them seriously.

So if you were thinking of taking 22.5 with FAU at Texas next Saturday, you should be aware of comments that Coach Schnellenberger made to the FAU student newspaper. Schnellenberger said that Texas “has great talent, but they aren’t tough, they aren’t a physically tough football team.”

Why would you fire up your opponent by calling them out on their toughness? I have no idea. But I’d hate to be a FAU wide receiver going over the middle of the field in this ballgame.

And if part of your handicap was that that Mack Brown might be gentlemanly by not scoring late in the game, you might want to rethink how juicy those 22.5 points actually appear in that ballgame.

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