There’s obviously a ton of scoring in the NBA this season, most if it in the Western Conference. As a result, very high totals are being posted. In the past eleven days (ending Monday) at least one game has had a total of 210 posted every day. You have to go back to Thursday, November 6th, which saw only three games played, to find a day without at least one total listed at 210 or more.

These high totaled games are still flying over. Even after an 0-2 to the under on Monday night, in games with totals of 210 or more the over is 15-8-1 in that time frame. The bulk of the profit is in extremely high totaled games, as games with over/under lines of 220 or more are 9-3 to the over.

There’s a lot of scoring, and the totals reflect that. But the last week and a half suggest that the linemakers haven’t adjusted the numbers high enough, particularly in the games that the betting markets suggest are most likely to see fireworks.

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This afternoon at 5PM Eastern Time (2PM Pacific), I’ll be on the Leroy’s Sports Hour with John Kelly, sponsored by the Leroy’s Sports Book chain in Nevada. You can listen online here or on KENO 920AM in Las Vegas or KPLY 630AM in Reno. John’s a sharp analyst and bettor himself, and enjoys putting his guests on the spot with challenging questions.

On the air with John on February 21, he spoke of the gaudy pointspread record that the top teams in college basketball enjoyed. He mentioned that the top six teams in college basketball (Memphis, Kansas, North Carolina, Duke, Tennessee, and UCLA) had combined for an extraordinary pointspread record. I’ve got them as a combined 84-52-3 (61.7%) up to that date. John then asked me if I had to choose between betting every game on and betting every game against all those teams, which would I choose.

I told John that if forced to make that choice, I would bet against those clubs. My reasoning was that in addition to them becoming overvalued, they would likely have good seeds sewn up, giving them a lack motivation in their conference tournaments, when coaches with bigger fish to fry don’t like to empty their tank.

Thus far my instinct has proven to be correct. Those teams have combined to go 6-12-1 against the spread since John and I talked the afternoon of February 21. Since Memphis and Tennessee played each other, applying a “bet against” strategy would actually be 11-5-1, or 68.7% against the spread.

And no, although I wish I had, I have not blindly bet against these “SuperTeams”. But it is something to remember going forward, after all, we’ll have a new set of SuperTeams with gaudy records in the middle of February next year.

This is annually a good time of year for us on our late telephone service, as following these teams closely all year long allows us to isolate favorable situations and matchups in both college and the NBA. Our late phones are 5-0 the past three days, covering the spread by 83 points in those games, and from now through the conference tourneys, the NIT, the NCAA’s and the end of the NBA regular season is annually a strong time for us.

If you’re looking for someone to do all your basketball work for you, we’ve got a package that will take you through the tournaments and all the way to the end of the NBA regular season. You get all our selections, plenty of analysis, all three books that I’ve written on sports betting, and you get it all for one low price. Unless you’re a vegan, or prefer ramen noodles, it is probably less than you spend on lunch each day. Call me personally in the office at 770-649-1078 for rates, details, and answers to any questions you might have.

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Defense is not a Keystone: Pitt is a hard-knocking, sound, defensive team, right? Not exactly. In their last four games Pitt has permitted opponents to shoot 112-210 (53.3%). Panther guard Levance Fields may have returned too early from his injury, as his defense has been lacking and he’s shooting only 18-61 (29.5%) from the field since his return.

Pitt’s not the only Keystone State team playing poor defense. Penn has allowed 13 opponents to shoot over 47% against them this season, explaining their worst season in a generation. Who cares about Penn, you ask? Hey, they’ve got three games left for you to go on, against, over, or under. But not caring about Penn seems to be the status quo, as an opportunity to be part of the Penn Sports Network radio team for the Columbia game Saturday night has earned a top bid of a whopping $50.

Pennsylvania teams in the A-10 are sharing in the statewide defensive struggle. In their last five games LaSalle has allowed opponents to shoot 52.3% (154-294). The Explorers were underdogs in each contest yet have somehow won 4 of the 5 game despite allowing opponents to score almost at will. St. Joseph’s was in good shape for a tourney bid before losing 5 of their last 7. St. Joe’s defense is what sent them careening into the ditch, as they’ve allowed 50% or more shooting in 4 of those 7 games.

Why can’t these Pennsylvania teams play defense?

NBA D Not Much Better: A lot of NBA teams aren’t exactly tearing it up defensively either. After blowing a late lead by allowing the Lakers to score 36 in the final quarter last night, the Sacramento Kings have permitting their last five opponents to shoot 204-409, just a shot under 50%.

The “playoff contending” Atlanta Hawks allowed Golden State to go for 30 or more in each quarter last night and gave up 55 field goals in a 135-118 home loss. It was the fifth time Atlanta has allowed 110 points or more since the All Star Break. It doesn’t speak well for the East that the 24-34 Hawks are a game out of the #8 playoff spot.

Largely populated with players who spent an uncompetitve spring with the Celtics last year, the Minnesota Timberwolves have allowed 82-154 shooting to weak sisters Charlotte and Seattle in their lat two games. Allowing a pair of teams that are a combined 46 games under .500 to shoot over 53% against you is not a sign of a non-contender playing hard down the stretch.

Spotting the bad teams working and the bad teams tanking could lead you to some profits down the stretch.

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Ross Siler of the Salt Lake Tribune does a nice job with his NBA blog. This week Siler details his travel during a 4 games in 5 nights set for the Jazz and it ain’t pretty. Skim it and then remember that until about 15 years ago NBA teams used to mainly fly commercial before transitioning to private charters.

Patrick Patterson’s injury is devastating for a Kentucky team that has always played hard through their injuries and adversity this season. Patterson has been carrying the Wildcats. But you have to wonder if this might increase the chances of Patterson sticking around for another year?

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Off-Broadway Debut: Though Devin Harris is considered to be a “game time decision” for New Jersey tonight, it certainly looks like the Nets expect him to make his debut for them this evening.

Sick Trojans? Valuable point guard Daniel Hackett is expected to return for USC at Arizona tonight, but how much he’ll play is unknown. Note that he’s dealing more than back issues, as Hackett missed practice yesterday with flu-like symptoms. Coach Tim Floyd missed practice with the same symptoms. Will more Trojans be battling a bug this evening?

PC Alert: Arkansas State plays a home game as the Indians for the last time ever this evening. Replacing their coach last week and suffering through a lengthy losing streak, don’t expect a giant groundswell of crowd support and emotion to help ASU this evening.

Panther Problems: Marcus Skinner is a strong rebounder for a Wisconsin-Milwaukee team that has had a lot of attrition on the front line. He is unlikely to play tonight against Loyola-Chicago due to a high ankle sprain. His backup had a big night in a loss to Valpo on Monday, but had played only 113 minutes all season prior to that.

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You expect players to get a little healthy over the break and have some renewed energy, but some guys got banged up late last night in NBA action. Meanwhile, the status of others is up in the air. Let’s look at a few.

Golden State Warriors: Stephen Jackson may not play tonight against Boston. Baron Davis turned an ankle but says he is fine. The Warriors will face Kevin Garnett this evening. Garnett was 50/50 to play entering the Celtics shootaround this morning, but now he’s a go.

Atlanta Hawks: New acquisition Mike Bibby turned an ankle in his 16 minutes during Atlanta’s wipeout loss to the Lakers (trailed 69-28 late in the second quarter). He wants to go against his former team tonight, but he’s questionable after today’s shootaround.

New Jersey Nets: Devin Harris is at least a couple of weeks away from beginning his duties with the Nets due to a “Grade 2″ ankle sprain.

Toronto Raptors: TJ Ford is hurt. Again. Pulled a stomach muscle in Toronto’s first practice after the All Star Break.

Washington Wizards: Gilbert Arenas’ ballyhooed return to practice lasted all of five minutes today. Is his March 2nd target date for his return optimistic? Caron Butler and DeShawn Stevenson also missed.

Chicago Bulls: Ben Gordon is back. Luol Deng might be.

That’s not a comprehensive list, but it is a good start for you in an injury-riddled NBA.

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I’ll be easing back into the NBA in the next few days, but one way to come out firing that I’ve heard bandied about from time to time is to consider the NBA All Star Game to be a “momentum interruption”. The break, the idea holds, causes the hot teams to lose their edge while the cold teams enjoy a refreshing break.

If you subscribe to that line of thinking, you may wish to take a gander at the Atlanta Hawks this evening. The Hawks entered the break on a four-game losing streak while the Lakers have won four straight. Newly acquired Mike Bibby and his teammates will be getting used to each other, but he might bring Atlanta an infusion of energy as well. Meanwhile, it remains to be seen how well Kobe will play with his bad pinkie.

If the theory of All Star Momentum Interruption makes sense to you, consider taking double digits with the Hawks tonight.

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The Atlanta Hawks shot 35 for 102 last night in their 125-92 loss to the Suns. You don’t see many teams shoot the ball 100 times in regulation, and while I don’t have the database to check this out, shooting over 100 times yet score fewer than 100 points is certainly unique. 24 offensive rebounds by Atlanta and 19 blocked shots by the Phoenix defense helped fuel the statistical anomaly.

I was wondering how often teams shoot the ball more than 100 times in a game and was stunned to discover that the 1959-1960 Boston Celtics averaged over 119 field goal attempts per game. A lot of scoring and field goal records are still held by teams in the 1959-1962 time frame. I do a lot of work with pace and efficiency numbers in my basketball handicapping, and I’d love to see how some of the pace and efficiency stats from that run ‘n gun NBA era compare to those of today.

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I like the over some between the Grizzlies and Lakers. The Grizz are starting to pick up on Coach Iavaroni’s offense and as a result are starting to run a bit more. The offense has been pretty efficient since rookie PG Mike Conley returned from injury. But there a couple of red flags that could interfere with a high scoring game, Kobe Bryant isn’t exactly red hot right now, coming into this contest shooting 19 for 55 in his last three games. And it is easy to see the Lakers being a little flat, as a Tuesday night game in Memphis isn’t anything that is going to get them that excited, particularly with the Hornets on deck. And 216 is a pretty high number. But still, there is reason enough to expect this to be a high scoring game and there are probably worse plays on the card than this one over the total.

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It’s the Top 25 before Christmas, and all through the house, there was a particular focus on the minor bowls, so get busy with your mouse.

1. One of the reasons that Navy was able to retain the vast majority of their coaching staff (8 of 12 staffers staying in Annapolis despite the departure of Paul Johnson) is a matter of economics. Navy assistant coaches and their family get free accommodations at the Academy. Associating with a place like the Naval Academy is certainly a special opportunity, and when it makes financial sense as well….
2. The New Orleans Bowl between Memphis and Florida Atlantic has to be the first bowl with a pair of defenses that allow 32+ points and 415+ yards per game, doesn’t it?
3. And is there anyone outside of Boca or Memphis that will be watching the New Orleans Bowl who doesn’t have money on it?
4. If anyone deserves to have his team play hard for him it is Jeff Bower, forced out as Southern Miss coach, and Southern Miss seems pretty motivated in the PapaJohn’s Bowl.
5. And the Golden Eagles better be motivated, as they’re taking on a team that has a better offense, better defense, and earned those numbers against better competition.
6. I realize that New Mexico Coach Rocky Long is disappointed that Rodney Ferguson is academically ineligible for the New Mexico Bowl, but does the coach really have to throw him under the bus by dismissively saying “he’s not a leader for us”? The junior had 544 carries for 20 TD’s in the past two seasons, with over 1000 yards each year. Feguson has taken a lot of hits for the Lobos. Long’s displeasure seems like something that could have been kept in-house.
7. Just getting healthy again, UCLA quarterback Ben Olson re-injured his knee in practice. The Bruin quarterback situation is once again up in the air.
8. UCLA beat BYU early in the season 27-17 despite being outgained 435-236. They have gone from an 8.5-point favorite at home earlier this season to a 5.5-underdog to the same opponent at a neutral site.
9. With Hawaii in the Sugar Bowl, the game created to provide Hawaii a place to play with they’re bowl eligible will likely have the smallest crowd in bowl history when ECU and Boise meet up on Sunday night.
10. Boise is taking a big step down the bowl ladder from last year’s Fiesta Bowl, but ECU was outgained by 5 of the 6 bowl clubs they faced, though they went 3-3 against those teams.
11. In addition to BYU/UCLA the other rematch this bowl season is Purdue/Central Michigan. Purdue won the first matchup 45-22 on yardage of 583-465. CMU was 0-3 against the three BCS conference teams it played, failing to cover all three pointspreads by a combined 85 points.
12. Butch Jones, the first year Central Michigan head coach, came to Mount Pleasant from West Virginia and is rumored to be in the mix for the WVU job. If something pops with that it could only serve as a distraction. Of course Purdue had much higher aspirations than Detroit when they were 7-2, and may be disinterested to be sent here after three consecutive losses to close the season.
13. The Holiday Bowl is historically the most entertaining and well-played of all the minor bowls and Texas/Arizona State could have been a BCS matchup had the Longhorns not lost to A&M in their finale. Arizona State wanted a Fiesta Bowl bid but their hometown committee decided to fill hotel rooms instead.
14. Sun Devils and Longhorns may both have trouble passing the ball. Arizona State allowed their quarterback to be sacked 51 times this season but on the other side of the ball allowed only 6.1 yards per pass attempt despite playing in the pass happy Pac Ten.
15. Boston College beat Clemson late in the season to win their division of the ACC, so why is BC in the Champs Sports Bowl on December 28? The Chick-Fil-A (Peach) Bowl in Atlanta saw that BC brought only 3,500 fans to Jacksonville for the ACC title game and couldn’t extend an invitation to Clemson fast enough.
16. While people correctly focus on Matt Ryan, BC’s run defense was terrific, allowing only 68 yards per game on 2.3 yards per rush. But BC doesn’t run well, and take on a well-coached Michigan State team that is pretty good at everything, though outstanding at nothing.
17. Considering they were seen as a possible BCS gate-crasher, TCU can’t be thrilled to end up in the Texas Bowl in Houston. But seeing that they were 5-5 at one point, maybe the Frogs are happy to be anywhere. Houston coach Art Briles is now full time at Baylor, and many of his assistants have one foot out the door to Waco.
18. Bowl teams playing in their home state are a long-term positive pointspread proposition, but that covers both TCU and Houston. The cross-town Cougars figure to have more fans here but TCU is less than four hours away.
19. The availability of Beaver RB Yvenson Bernard is an enormous issue in the Oregon State/Maryland Emerald Bowl. So far Bernard is practicing lightly and without pain. Maryland has suffered a storm of injuries this season but are getting healthier.
20. We’ll take a look at the games of December 29th and later next week, but there’s plenty of other stuff going on. Did you notice that when Drake beat Iowa in Iowa City for the first time in 40 years, that Iowa didn’t shoot a single free throw? Other than the paycheck, Todd Lickliter really must wish he was back coaching at Butler right now.
21. Our basketball is off to a blazing start again this year, and we’re hitting better than 60% in both college hoops and the NBA. Keep up with daily free selections on our Hotline voice mail broadcast at 1-770-618-8700. Make sure you pick up that daily selection with full analysis as a part of your daily handicapping routine.
22. Another similar effort is available to you as handicappers Matty Baiungo and Erik Scheponik share a well-done and successful free selection phone. Call this 24-hour voice mail broadcast at 1-404-250-7555 for solid winning information.
23. Favorites had been rolling in the NFL for a month until we saw a dead even 8-8 split last weekend.
24. Value handicappers need to take a hard look at the Bengals this weekend. Laying 7.5 in Cleveland earlier this season, Cincy is now getting 2 at home from the Browns. Factor in the home field advantage and we’re looking at a swing of more than two touchdowns in the pointspread.
25. Thanks for reading this far, and thanks for reading us this season. Have a wonderful Christmas. We’ll be back with a look at the major bowls next week.

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