Is it just me or does it look like the ESPN panel expects Bobby Knight to pull out a weapon and start shooting at any moment? Jay Bilas looks positively terrified.

Let’s look at a few items of pointspread interest pertaining to the Kansas/Memphis championship game.

• the public strongly favors Memphis and the over. The openers were Kansas -1.5 and 144. Now Memphis is a 2-point favorite and the total has been bet up to anywhere from 147.5 to 148.5.
• After going a typical (for them) 37-67 (55.2%) from the line in the first two rounds, Memphis’ free throw bugaboo has disappeared. Against Michigan State, Texas, and UCLA, the Tigers have drained a phenomenal 76-94 (80.8%) from charity stripe.
• The extent to which Derrick Rose is taking over is not being overplayed. After taking 10 or more shots in only 2 of Memphis’ previous 7 games, Rose has double-digit shot attempts in all five tourney games.
• Rose has 17 points or more in every NCAA tournament game. He hadn’t scored 17+ in more than two consecutive games since doing so in Memphis’ first four games in November.
• Rose missed a media session Sunday with an upset stomach, but practiced on Sunday night.
• Kansas has shot 50% or better from the field in 25 games this year. Memphis has done so only 12 times.
• Only once all season did an opponent outshoot Kansas. In a 59-55 loss to the Jayhawks on December 2nd, Southern Cal shot 38.5% to Kansas’ 37.9%.
• Russell Robinson (14/16) and Sherron Collins (15/17) both have fewer assists than turnovers in the tournament.
• You’ve seen their offensive highlights, but it is worth noting that these are the two best defensive teams in the country, with Kansas allowing only 37.9% shooting, while Memphis permits opponents only 38.7% from the field.

Enjoy the game.

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This is the furthest a Memphis team has every advanced in the tourney. The 1985 Tigers were upset by Villanova in the semis.

Other than Vincent Askew, who enjoyed a decade in the NBA, whatever happened to that talented team?

Keith Lee washed out of the NBA in three years due to bad knees, and it gets worse. Baskerville Holmes murdered his girlfriend then turned the gun on himself. Aaron Price was shot and killed and his murder was never solved. His potential unfulfilled due to an affinity for cocaine, William Bedford washed out of the NBA and is in federal prison in Texas.

Geoff Calkins of the Memphis Commercial-Appeal details the sad story.

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While having four #1 seeds advance to the Final Four certainly sounds dull, it makes for spectacular Saturday matchups (on paper, at least).

All four teams are outstanding, with excellent offenses (all shoot 47% or better from the field) and suffocating defenses (all permit 42.3% or less, with Memphis and Kansas both allowing less than 39% shooting).

These aren’t “system” teams that have gotten there thanks to a good coach and a hot streak, they’re enormously talented. A pair of NBA mock drafts both have 10 players in this Final Four going in the first 32 picks of the draft. That’s quite a collection of talent on hand.

Let’s point out a fact or two about each team that maybe have somehow been overlooked in the storm of media coverage. Maybe these facts will help you from a pointspread perspective. Maybe they won’t.

Memphis: The free throw woes of the Tigers are well-documented. But Chris Douglas-Roberts is doing all he can to change things. After shooting only 67.4% from the line during the season, CDR has been a lights-out 36-43 (83.7%) from the line during the tournament. Memphis is only 7-13 their last 20 games against the pointspread, but most of those non-covers were laying big wood. Laying reasonable numbers in their two most recent games they’ve covered by a combined 27.5 points.

UCLA: The Bruins have an inferior defense to Memphis if you judge by field goal percentage allowed (38.8% to 41.7%), but the Pac Ten was not only the best, but also the most offensively advanced conference in the country. The level of competition faced by these two teams from early January through their conference tournaments isn’t even close. UCLA is a defense that is better than their stats.

Kansas: You think of Kansas as a fast-paced team, and they aren’t shy about getting up and down the court, but they average 8 fewer field goal attempts than North Carolina, which speaks to the breakneck pace favored by the Tar Heels. With Kansas averaging three fewer offensive rebounds, three fewer free throws, and turnovers just about equal, the Tar Heels make seemingly uptempo Jayhawks look like a Big Ten or CAA team in comparison.

North Carolina: Tyler Hansbrough is not getting to the line with the same regularity that he did throughout most of the season. Hansbrough shot an average of 10.7 free throws per game in the first 30 games of the season, but has enjoyed only 6.25 attempts per game from the charity stripe since then. UNC’s 23-10 pointspread record this season is remarkable considering they’re a public team that everyone wants to back. The Tar Heels allow 42.3% shooting, the worst mark among these four teams.

Enjoy the games Saturday night.

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Bettors who respected the quality of play in the Big East Conference have been rewarded in the tournament, with the Big East teams posting a 12-4 record to the pointspread after week one of the tournament. That 75% winning clip is the best record of all multiple-bid conferences.

The only multiple-bid conference more than a game under .500 in the first two rounds is the West Coast Conference, 1-3 to the number as San Diego’s upset of Connecticut in the first round was the only cover for that loop.

Let’s look at all multiple-bid conference and their pointspread records.

12-4 Big East

5-2 Big Ten

7-4 Big 12

2-1 Sun Belt

4-3 ACC

2-2 Atlantic Ten

4-5 Pac Ten

1-2 Mountain West

1-3 West Coast Conference

As favorites went 30-18 against the spread last weekend it is no surprise that some of the power conferences have solid records. The six BCS conferences covered at a 19-7 rate against non-power conference oppositions.

12 of the remaining 16 teams represent the major conferences, with the four exceptions being Memphis, Xavier, Davidson, and Western Kentucky.

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Statistical notes from the weekend games that tell us how the Sweet 16 got there:

Washington State: Ferocious D against a potent Notre Dame team. Held the Irish to a stunning 13-53 from the field. Held on to the basketball as well, committing only 7 turnovers, while forcing 13.

North Carolina: When your opponent is giving you an open path to the basket and you shoot 44-65 you’re going to win a lot of games.

Louisville: Played a brilliant game offensively, with assists on 24 of their 32 baskets. Held OU to 15 field goals. Lone weakness shown was hitting only 5-15 from the charity stripe.

Tennessee: Gave up no easy baskets, holding Butler to 13-35 on two-point shots. The interior D combined with a 43-34 board edge permitted them to survive, advance, and (unfortunately) cover the 4 1/2 in a five-point OT win.

West Virginia: Only 11 of their 62 shots were from 3-point land, compared to 22 3-pointers in 50 attempts for Duke. Only 6 assists on 19 baskets for Duke. Mountaineers 19-22 from the free throw line sealed it.

Xavier: an efficient 22-38 from inside the arc, and 26-33 from the free throw line left few potential points unclaimed.

Western Kentucky: Caught Drake on a terrible shooting night in Round 1, scored by playing inferior San Diego in the 2nd round.

UCLA: Won evenly played (.444-.431 shooting, 27-26 rebounding) war with A&M on the sheer force of their will, with suffocating second half defense. Aggie defense was disruptive, as Bruins had only 7 assists on 20 FG’s. The ultimate “survive and advance” effort.

Villanova: Outmanned Siena couldn’t come up with a second big effort in three days. ‘Nova won shooting .535-.357, rebounding 35-30.

Kansas: 24-38 from inside the arc. Held UNLV to 12 made field goals, partially by fouling, as Rebels converted 27 free throws.

Davidson: Amazing box score, as Georgetown outshot Davidson .634-.386. 3-point shots were 10-18 for GU, 6-28 for DU. So how did the Wildcats do it? Try forcing 20 turnovers and committing only 4 yourself and see how meaningless shooting percentages become.

Wisconsin: Defense permitted guys not named Beasley or Walker to score only 14 of Kansas State’s 55 points. Discombobulated KSU notched only 4 assists on the day.

Michigan State: Similar defensive effort to that of Wisconsin above, holding Pitt to only 4 assists. Panthers were 2-17 from 3-point territory. MSU shot only 9 free throws, but hit them all.

Memphis: 42-31 board edge over Mississippi State was meaningful, 15-32 from the free throw line was troubling.

Stanford: Prevailed in a well-played overtime game where both the Cardinal and Marquette were in single digits in turnovers in 45 minutes of action. Assists on 23 of 28 baskets.

Texas: 13-26 from three-point land, 39-27 board edge. Those provided a buffer that permitted the Longhorns to hold off a late Miami Hurricane rally.

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Friday’s sites of Raleigh, Tampa, Little Rock, and Birmingham was not exactly the pinnacle of geographic diversity, was it? The Southeastern Regional continues when those sites hold two games each on Easter Sunday.The games in Tampa certainly deserve all the attention, and the Western Kentucky, Villanova, Siena, San Diego money line parlay paid better than 225-1 to those prescient enough to bet it (and resourceful enough to find a place that would provide an honest payoff). Those games guaranteed a pair of Sweet 16 Cinderellas (if a Big East team can be a Cinderella), but after a formful evening favorites and dogs split 8-8 to the number. The Little Rock and Birmingham games held significantly less drama than Tampa, all decided by 7 points or more.

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Look for the TV sports networks to be wall-to-wall Belmont/Duke highlights, as if they want to keep their audience they have no other choice.  There simply wasn’t much competitive basketball on Thursday in the NCAA basketball tournament.   How non-competitive was it?
 
To start with, favorites were 13-3 to the pointspread, and that only scratches the surface of how uninteresting the games were.  13 of the 16 games were decided by double-digits, while 6 of the 16 games had halftime margins of 19 points or more.   Even the few games that looked interesting at halftime turned into routs, with Xavier outscoring Georgia 46-27 after halftime and Washington State blowing open a tie game with a 42-11 second half stampede over Winthrop.
 
The one thing that kept bettors interested were the totals.  Not only did overs and unders split to one closing line, going 8-8, but many were decided purely by happenstance. 6 of 16 games stayed under or went over by one point or less, with Arizona/West Virginia, Portland State/Kansas, Kent State/UNLV, Winthrop/Washington State, Temple/Michigan State, and Texas A&M/BYU all being glorious winners or gut-wrenching losers for totals players.  
 
The winners on Thursday were chalk players, as well as over/under bettors who shopped for lines and timed their wagers well.  Hopefully Friday’s card does a bit more to retain our interest.

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Basketball is a game of matchups, and that adage proves most true when a slow-paced team battles a team that prefers to play at a quicker tempo.  There are a couple of interesting Thursday games where the tempo will likely decide the victor, or at least decide the pointspread cover.

Let’s take a look.

Purdue vs. Baylor:  WIth this over/under line right around 140.5, Purdue hasn’t played a game with the total this high since December 8th, while 13 of Baylors last 14 games have had a total higher than this.  Purdue games average 104 field goal attempts, while Baylor games average 122 field goal attempts.  Both teams average game is a 7-point win, Purdue averages a 68.7-61.2 result, while Baylor averages a 81.4-74.4 win.  Despite allowing 13 points more per game, Baylor actaully holds opponents to a lower field goal percentage (42.8% to 43.3%).  Obviously Baylor wants to play fast, Purdue is more comfortable playing a bit slower, and the result will likely be determined by who plays the game at their comfort level.

George Mason vs. Notre Dame: The recent history of the over/under lines of these two teams tell us a lot about them.  6 of George Mason’s last 7 games have had lines below 130, while Notre Dame’s last 14 have had over/under totals of 141.5 or more despite playing in the low-scoring Big East.  George Mason allows 7 ponts fewer than Notre Dame despite having a higher defensive FG% allowed than the Irish.  Clearly this is another case of one team wanting to slow it down and the other team wanting to run.

So what do we do with this information? If these teams fight to play at thier comfort level, do the parlays of Purdue/under, Baylor/over, George Mason/under, and Notre Dame/over make sense?  You could certainly make a case for them.  But while logical, such parlays seem to work out less often than they should.  What you may want to do is to keep the preferred styles in mind when you analyze the results of these games.  Be more impressed with the victor if they are able to take control at a pace they’re uncomfortable with, and be more willing to go against them on Saturday if they win with the pace in their favor.

Good luck on Thursday.

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Everyone loves tourney upsets. But as tempting as it is to pick dark horses to go deep into the NCAA tournament, the top seeds dominate. Going back to 1990, 14 of the last 17 NCAA tournament champions have been either a 1 seed (11 times) or a 2 seed (3 times). And the other winners weren’t exactly impossible to sniff out, as there have been a pair of 3 seeds (Florida in 2006, Syracuse in 2003) and a #4 seed (Arizona in 1997).

Incidentally, an important lesson for lower seeds in the Final Four is to invite me to the games, as the winners of the only two Final Fours I’ve been to since I was in college were the above mentioned Arizona in ‘97 and Syracuse in ‘03.

In the past 17 years, 66% (45 of 68) of Final Four teams have been either a #1 seed (29) or a #2 seed (16). To put it another way, #1 seeds have made the Final Four 42.6% of the time and #2 seeds have made the Final Four 22% of the time.

Being toughened by a major conference schedule is also critical. Since UNLV’s consecutive appearances in the Finals in 1990 and 1991, 61 of 64 Final Four slots have gone to teams that are currently in one of the six BCS Conferences (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Big East, Pac 10, SEC). The exceptions were George Mason in 2006, Utah in 1998, and UMass in 1996. During that time, Louisville, Cincinnati, and Marquette all made one Final Four each before they joined the Big East.

When you’re choosing your brackets are betting your futures, remember that these top seeds dominate. But when it comes to your betting, remember that the pointspread can be a very effective equalizer.

Plenty more Tourney notes throughout the week. So come back and check us out.

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In the five college conference tournament games that went to overtime on Thursday, each game was won outright in the extra session (or sessions) by the underdog. Pitt, Colorado, Georgia, Tulsa, and Utah all pulled upsets in games that went to OT.

I’d be very careful about playing those teams on Friday. The all-out effort and extra minutes could lead to fatigue, and teams that pull upsets in early rounds of conference tournaments often underperform in their next game. All situations are different, but reviewing the “minutes played” column of the box scores and reading the game stories and sidebars in local papers should give you an idea as to whether these clubs will be out of gas in the second halves of their games today.

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