It was the wildest, underdog-laden NCAA tournament of all time, right?  

Not exactly. At least not if you consider pointspread results to be your guide.  

With only the three Final Four games left to play, if you had bet the underdog in every single game, you’d be a 32-28-1 against the spread.  The $110/$100 bettor who bet on the dog in every game would be up the princely sum of $120.

At first glance, large favorites did well, as teams laying 7.5-points or more are 12-9 against the spread.  But double digit favorites were only 6-8 to the spread, which means that 7.5 to 9.5 point chalk was the profit center of the larger favorites, with a 6-1 mark against the spread.    Teams favored by 4.5 to 7 points were a middling 9-7-1 against the pointspread.

If you’re following along closely, you see that we’re left with the competitively priced games of 4-points and less.   In those games that saw no strong favorite, favorites were only 7-16 to the pointspread.   It is worth noting that there were a number of games that went from pick to a small favorite or one team a slight favorite to the other team being a slight favorite.  The closing line was used for the purposes of our analysis.

Dog players actually would have done better if they played those 23 small dogs on the money line, as of the 16 pointspread winners, 15 of them won straight up (San Diego State’s narrow loss in their pointspread cover against Tennessee was the lone exception).

It’s fun to review this, but be careful about expecting it to carry on going forward.  The previous couple of tournments had been pretty chalky, so a knee-jerk dog player wouldn’t have done all that well. And if the tournament is changed to a 96-team affair next year, pointspread data from the 26 years of 64-team tournaments will have little value.

But the fact that pointspread underdogs won 15 of the 23 games lined from 1 to 4 is worth remembering, showing that this was a tournament in which the marketplace had a hard time ascertaining who was the superior team in games that looked to be competitive.

Enjoy the Final Four.

The Big East went 0-3 against the spread in Tuesday night’s minor tournament action and that prompted a couple of people to ask if that indicated that the Big East wasn’t as strong as it appeared to be.  It’s a reasonable question, and I’d like to make two points.

When Betting March Madness, Ignore March Mildness: The NIT, CBI, and College Insider tourneys are meaningless when it comes to ascertaining the strengths of conferences.  Early in those affairs, the results are largely about motivation.  Consider Texas Tech’s 87-69 win at Seton Hall.  Big 12 over Big East.  Does this suggest that one conference is better than they other?  No way.

We now know that Robert Mitchell, dismissed from the Seton Hall team on Sunday, on Monday was arrested for robbing 8 people, including some fellow students, at gunpoint.  He’s likely facing 10+ years in the big house.  Additionally, Hall coach Bobby Gonzalez was about to be fired, which the players probably had a sense of.  It’s foolish to think that the Big East teams in the NCAA’s are “go againsts” or that the teams in the Big 12 are “go withs” just because Seton Hall, a flighty team to begin with, didn’t show up for their game Tuesday night.

Do Pay Attention to NCAA Tourney Results:  During this NCAA tournament, do factor in the results of tourney games into your handicapping.  The fact that Notre Dame and Villanova both struggled early on Thursday may mean something.  How each conference is doing is certainly not the only factor of importance, as matchups and style of play matter a lot, but it’s definitely worth considering.   If a conference with multiple bids is struggling or doing particularly well, maybe they are better or worse than people realize.   Perhaps the Big East and Big 12 aren’t as strong as they appear.  Maybe the Big Ten is just a little bit deeper than folks think.  Of course the converse of those can be true as well. 

Hope the games break your way today.  Good luck in your battle with the Vegas and online sportsbooks!

Siena, after a stirring upset win over Ohio State in the tourney last year, is a 4-point dog to Purdue at online sportsbooks as well as in Nevada.  You know about the injury to Robbie Hummel of Purdue, and how important he is, but what about Clarence Jackson of Siena?  Jackson turned his ankle in practice over the weekend.

Jackson is “questionable, borderline doubtful” according to his coach , though teammates think he’ll play. He plays 2/3rds of their minutes, which is 4th on the team, and when he’s on the court he takes 27% of the shots, which is second on the team.  He shoots 32% from outside the arc, and he had nearly a third of the teams three-point attempts on the season.   Only has 29 assists in 33 games, so he’s a shooter. As a team fewer than 26% of their shots are 3-pointers, which is one of the lowest in the country.  He’s the only guy on the team shooting more than about 2.2 3’s per game, so they become even less perimeter oriented now. 

I wanted to see how he had done in their key wins but Siena’s Top 100 win was against Northeastern in a game where he scored 5 points.  He’s certainly far, far less important to his team than Hummel is to Purdue, but this isn’t a terribly deep club so the fact he’s the one proven 3-point threat hurts.  They’ve got a kid named Kyle Downey who has taken about 4 shots per game, with exactly half of them 3’s, who will likely get more action.  He was out for a month and a half and has been back for the last 4 games, but shot only 1-2 in the semi’s and finals of the conf tourney after seeing some solid action in the first round against Manhattan.

Siena lost to all the best teams they played in the regular season, but they did that last season as well. Pomeroy has them #58 after being #59 after the country following going 1-1 in the tourney last year.   So in some ways they have a similar profile to last season, though their losses to top teams in December last year saw them maintain contact with teams a little better.  But their star from last year Kenny Hasbrouk is in the NBDL and on the verge with signing a 10-day contract with the Heat.  I would say that Siena is not quite the team that they were last year, especially without Jackson, but Purdue is obviously a big step down from where they were with Hummel in the lineup.  Purdue is 0-4-1 against the spread since Hummel’s injury, with the non-covers being by 13, 0.5,  and 2 before the 29.5-point non-cover to Minnesota.

We’ll have more notes for college basketball bettors in the days ahead.

While lesser lights like Virginia, NC State, Nebraska and Air Force have won and covered conference games in recent days, a number of the nation’s top teams make their conference tourney debut today.  Let’s take a look at some things you should be aware of before you bet on or against these top tier college hoops teams.

1. Kentucky coach John Calapari, concerned about his team’s inexperience, brought in a sports psychologist to talk to his young team about the pressure they will face during the tournament season.  Meanwhile, sports media scuttlebutt has it that there will be an interesting story coming out about Calipari’s recruitment of a couple of his freshmen. 

2. Michigan State’s Tom Izzo has disciplined a guard for the fourth time this season.  Izzo has suspended guard Chris Allen, a solid three-point shooter and defender, ”indefinitely”, which means at least for a single game.   The Spartans mentor is tight-lipped about the reasons why, calling it a “basketball related issue” and saying that Allen has to “learn about responsibility”.

3. Duke’s playing great ball.  Despite being a public team that people love to bet, meaning their lines are inflated, the Blue Devils are trashing the Vegas and offshore line with a 18-11-1 pointspread mark.   But are the Blue Devils prepared to thrive playing three consecutive days?   Three of the top four ”most minutes” players in the ACC are Blue Devils starters Jon Scheyer, Nolan Smith, and Kyle Singler.  There is a chance that the longer the ACC tournament goes, the more likely their lack of quality depth will hurt them.

4. Nobody would accuse Wisconsin of having top-tier talent, but Bo Ryan simply gets it done with the players he has year-in and year-out.  The Badgers have won 9 of their last 11 and enter today’s game against Wisconsin on a 7-3 pointspread run.   Wisconsin and Illini split a pair of games that saw neither one of them anywhere near the pointspread. The Illini covering by 16 points in an outright win at Madison while the Badgers returned the favor on the road, winning by 15 as 3-point favorites to get some revenge.

5.  And who is the hottest pointspread team of the top-tier outfits playing for the first time today?  How about the Maryland Terrapins, a remarkable 14-3 to the line at Vegas and online sportsbooks.   Gary Williams has his team cooking, but admits to the club being “mentally tired” while Greivis Vasquez talks of the effort being expended by the Terps being “exhausting”.   Obviously the break came at the perfect time for the Terps, who play for the first time in six days today.

As this is filed we have plenty of work to do heading into Friday’s tournament action.  The work begins the night before with box score analysis and noting details from game reports. It continues into the morning as we analyze style matchups and late reports from local reporters and beat writers on the scene.   If you want to take advantage of all the hard work call 770-649-1078 and ask about our tournament package.

Today’s 5 nuggets for conference tournament action include some surprising pointspread data.   

1. The ACC tournament tips off today and if you’re looking to get involved with the contrarian “play the cold team” angle, Virginia may be your team.  The Cavs started a shocking 6-2 in conference play under first year coach Tony Bennett but have hit the wall since then, losing 9 straight and going 0-8-1 against the spread in that stretch.   They shot over 53% in their regular season finale against Maryland and held the Terps to under 42% shooting yet not only lost, but failed to cover as a +5.5-point home dog.  The Cavs remain without All-ACC second teamer Sylven Landesberg, suspended by Bennett for missing class. 

2. Despite a $7 million buyout in a contract Georgia Coach Paul Hewitt negotiated with a departed athletic director, Hewitt is no lock to come back next year if you read between the lines of a statement by Yellow Jackets’ current AD Dan Radakovich. Hailed as the game’s next great young coach when Georgia Tech lost the 2004 national title game to Connecticut, Hewitt’s clubs have been a disappointment in every other year, and shockingly, ’04 was the only year that Tech had a winning record in ACC play in Hewitt’s 10 years in charge.    With the team’s two best players likely to be early entries for the draft, this becomes a very important tournament for Hewitt and the Jackets.  Offshore and online sportsbooks opened Tech as a 3.5-point favorite over a dreadful North Carolina team in today’s contest.  

3. How bad is the lower tier of the Big 10, “featuring” Iowa, Indiana, and Penn State?  Bad enough that Vegas, online and offshore sportsbooks opened such modestly accomplished teams as Michigan, Northwestern, and Minnesota as favorites of anywhere from 6.5 to 8 points against those three disasters.

4. The Arkansas/Georgia first rounder in SEC play just got interesting.  Arkansas freshman Marshawn Powell called himself the leader of the team saying, “I’m not taking nothing from Mike (Washington) or Stef (Welsh). I know those are the seniors. I’m taking it and just putting it on my back. This is what this team needs is a leader. We haven’t had that all year. So it’s my turn to try, I guess.” It will be interesting to see how much Mike and Stef feed Powell the ball in today’s game against the limited, but hard-trying Bulldogs.

5. If you’re trying to beat Washington today with Oregon State +9 or so, make sure it’s not just because of the Huskies struggles on the road, as Lorenzo Romar’s crew appears to have turned that around.  After starting 0-7 both straight up and against the spread away from Seattle, failing to cover those games by a combined 78 points, UW became a winning team on the highway.   In their final four road affairs, the Huskies went 4-0 both straight up and against the spread, beating the line by a combined 34 points.  UW was favored in all four games despite the previous road struggles, a fact that doesn’t compliment the rest of the Pac Ten.

6. Here’s a bonus to your “Starting 5″ as we turn it into a hockey team.  Villanova has an important contributor returning as they play their tournament opener at Madison Square Garden.   Sophomore forward Taylor King, the Wildcats second-leading rebounder, is back for the Wildcats after missing last Saturday’s overtime loss to West Virginia with what was termed a “personal issue”.  It was originally reported that King would miss at least ‘nova’s first round game, but it looks like he’ll play today.

Good luck in your own personal conference tournament play today against the sportsbooks  If you’re interested in getting involved with our late telephone service for the tournaments you can call 770-649-1078.

We gave you some “big picture” conference tournament information yesterday.  Today let’s move on to some nuts and bolts in the Wednesday hoops card.

1. Fatigue won’t necessarily be a big factor in the early Big East games today.   Depaul didn’t provide much of a challenge to South Florida, with the Bulls winning by 9 despite hitting 0-15 from the perimeter (including 0-8 from 3-point land) and only 6-14 from the line.   Obviously USF played well other than outside shooting, but those horrendous shooting numbers show that anyone else in the league would have beaten the Bulls yesterday, as Depaul is just dreadful.  USF is certainly due to shoot better. 

2. Three bench players for St. John’s saw 15 minutes or more in their wipeout of the underachieving Connecticut Huskies.  Will St. John’s fans go “back to the future” and actually support the team in the Garden today?  It’s worth noting that since conference play started, underdogs are 10-3 against the spread in Marquette games provided the pointspread is more than 2.  The Warriors Golden Eagles simply play to their level of competition, and it will be no surprise if this battle with the Redmen Red Storm goes down to the wire as well.  Marquette opened favored by 3.5 points, after being a 1.5-point favorite at Carnesseca Arena a couple of weeks ago in a 2-point overtime win over St. John’s.

3.  A Big East night game may have  a team fresher than expected, as well. Don’t automatically assume that Seton Hall will be drained from their 109-106 regulation win over Providence.  The Pirates typically get up and down the court and only one starter played more than 31 minutes.  There was also plenty of standing around while the 82 free throws were taken.

4. There are a couple of “donkey games” on Wednesday out west.   Oregon vs. Washington State is no prize.  But it’s tough to find an uglier matchup than Air Force and Wyoming in the Mountain West, as these would be the worst two teams in any power conference, as well as the Missouri Valley, the WAC, and, if it weren’t for Fordham, in the Atlantic 10 as well.   Wyoming has been opened a narrow favorite by Vegas and online sportsbooks.    More importantly, don’t forget that the top Mountain West teams that will end up in various tournaments benefited from beating up on these two dregs.

5. Remember that we work very hard on the postseason tournaments and most years our hard work pays off.  Historically we’ve done well in the conference tournaments, the NCAA tournament, and the end of the NBA regular season.  To take advantage of this package, discounted to less than $9 per day, call me at 770-649-1078.

This week (in fact, this afternoon) the major conference tournaments kick in as the massive, 5-day, 16-team Big East tournament kicks off.  And what a week it is.  There are more games this week than there are in the NCAA tournament, NIT, and CBI combined.  For basketball bettors it is a huge week.  Let’s take a look at five things that you should be thinking about as you play the college conference tournaments, a time of year where motivation and matchups are the two key handicapping factors. .

1. These tournaments mean different things in different leagues.  The importance of the Big East and ACC tournaments are ingrained in the culture in those leagues, and bragging rights from bringing home the title in front of frenzied crowds is important.   In the Big 12 and Pac 10 there is less focus on the tournament.  Powerful teams are more likely to mail one in and move on to the NCAA’s.

2. But things can change on a year to year basis.  With none of the “powerful teams” mentioned in item 2, the Pac Ten tourney is more important than usual.   The league is way down this year and there is a chance for this to be a one-bid league.  But some bracket analysts believe that if Arizona State meets Washington in the semi-finals, that might be close to a “play-in” game for one of those teams.

3. Some conference tourneys mean a lot in settling NCAA bids.  Some don’t.  While there are 4 or even 5 teams in the Atlantic 10 tournament who could play their way on or off the bubble, the opposite is true in the Big 12. The top 7 Big 12 are universally accepted to be locked in to their bids.  The bottom 5 Big 12 teams are universally accepted to be out of the tournament barring some sort of miracle run.

4. Motivation and matchups based on this year’s teams matter.  Live in the present.  Past history doesn’t matter a whole lot in a season where 14-loss UConn is the 12th seed in the Big East Conference tournment, 17-loss UCLA had a losing record in the Pac Ten, 15-loss North Carolina humiliated themselves weekly in the ACC, and 20-loss Indiana lost 11 Big 10 games by 13 or more.  

5.  There are a lot of hidden factors in each conference tournament that you need to spend time making yourself aware of.  For instance, the Conference USA tournament is finally in a city other than Memphis this year.  It is in Tulsa, but it is not on Tulsa’s home court, so don’t give Tulsa a full home-court edge, but a modest one instead.   In years that Syracuse doesn’t have much of a shot in the NCAA’s, Jim Boeheim takes a big shot in the Big East tournament.  But in years where he sees his team as a major NCAA threat, his teams are less liketly to go to the wall with top effort.   In fact, Boeheim has told people he may rest Wes Johnson this week in an effort to get his hand healthy.  While following through on resting Johnson would be a surprise, Boeheim may simply be prepping for the NCAA’s. 

This is annually our most active week of the year, and often one of our most profitable ones.  And you can get all of our conference tournament action for free when you sign up for our NCAA tournament package.  Additionally, you’ll get the rest of the NBA for free as well.  In the closing weeks of the NBA we get active with a number of late-season strategies that have done well for us in the past.   

The end result is you get all of our remaining college basketball and NBA regular season for less than $9 per day.  For details or more information call 770-649-1078.  If there’s no answer (during prime ‘capping time the phone doesn’t always get answered) just leave a message and I’ll call you back personally.    

Good luck in the conference tournaments, and be careful.

Looking at 5 Sunday college games from a basketball betting perspective:

1. Ordinarily a team off such an important win as Temple’s 49-41 smothering of Dayton would be a candidate for a letdown.  But the Big 5 is still important in Philadelphia and if 8-point favorite Temple can beat LaSalle they’ll be the first Temple team to go 5-0 in the intra-city series since the Mark Macon-led 1987-88 squad.  Since their blowout loss at Richmond, the Owls have held their four opponents combined to less than 34% from the field, with none of those teams shooting any higher than 40%.

2. UConn hosts Louisville in a game with the vibe of a postseason affair.   Pointspread watchers may see the Cardinals “surge” as an illusion, as the only game that Pitino’s charges have covered in their last 6 affairs was the outright upset win at Syracuse.  The Cardinal is on a 3-10 pointspread run overall.   Meanwhile, UConn is suddenly popular among sports bettors, as they’ve won and covered three in a row, including outright upsets over West Virginia and Villanova.  Previously the Huskies had a potential massive outright upset thwarted by the officials in Syracuse.  A win by either club here may wrap up a tourney berth.

3. The Michigan State/Purdue game today is compelling, and even moreso with Robbie Hummel out for the Boilermakers.  But the rest of the conference today?  Egads.  If you don’t have the Big 10 Network, well, no big deal.  All you’re missing is Indiana at Iowa at 6PM EST. Indiana has lost 9 straight and failed to cover 6 straight.   Iowa has lost 8 of 9.  Iowa wasted Indiana 58-43 earlier this season in Bloomington as 6-point road dogs, holding the homestanding Hoosiers without a 3-point field goal in 9 tries.  Ironically, at a slow time in the sports day this game will be prominently featured on the big screens in Las Vegas sports books.  Iowa is favored by 6, and that’s a spread range that they’re not terribly familiar with.

4. The earlier Big 10 game is no prize either.  Penn State is favored by 2 over a Northwestern team that is in unfriendly pointspread territory, as this is only the second time that Vegas and online sportsbooks haven’t had Northwestern taking 7.5 points or more in a conference road game.  The other outlier was when Northwestern lost by 13 at Iowa as a small road favorite.   Previously considered to be a potential NCAA tourney team, Northwestern has managed to lose to both Iowa (2-12 in the rest of their conference games) and Penn State (1-13 in their other conference games).  

5. Fortunately, despite the ugly affairs provided by a few “power conferences” there is a real beauty between a pair of underrated teams in the strong Atlantic 10 on ESPN2 this afternoon.   Overlooked Xavier and underrated Richmond are two teams with potential to do some damage in the NCAA tournament.   It is clearly Sunday’s most attractive matchup, and you’ll be a little bit better prepared for March Madness if you try to catch it.

Good luck on Sunday, and be careful.

With a typically massive college basketball lineup on Saturday, let’s take a look at five items of interest in today’s hoop action.

1. The marquee matchup on Saturday night is Villanova at Syracuse in front of the largest on-campus crowd in the history of the sport.  The total in this game is a daunting proposition, as Syracuse games don’t have a lot of fouls called while Villanova fouls a ton and gets fouled as well.  Syracuse games average 37 free throws attempted, the average Villanova game has 54 opportunities from the stripe.  No surprise that ‘nova games are high, with 156 average points in Villanova games, which is 10 points more than the 146 seen in the typical Syracuse contest.

 2. Georgia Tech takes on Boston College in an early start in Atlanta, and it will be interesting to see how the Yellow Jackets react to Coach Paul Hewitt challenging Tech fans and his critics.  Having a coach in open debate with his fans and media during a season is unique, but maybe the players will see it as their coach having their back and will play well. Tech opened a 7.5-favorite at Las Vegas and online sportsbooks.  Tech fans disappointed in the Jackets would be surprised to learn that Hewitt’s club is 13-8 against the spread.

3. Tennessee isn’t playing terrific ball right now, but they might catch Kentucky at the right time.  The Wildcats had a fairly easy time of it beating South Carolina in a 9PM EST game on Thursday night and now have to play at noon against the Vols.  Lexington to Knoxville is a short trip, but the schedulemaker doesn’t do UK any favors with a late Thursday game followed by traveling to play at noon.  

4. USC takes on Oregon State tonight after a Thursday night second half collapse against Oregon that was as bad a half of basketball as you’ll ever seen.  Leading by 9 at the half, the Trojans permitted a dreadful Oregon team to outscore them 31-12 in the second half in the 54-44 loss.   After a 14-0 Oregon run earlier in the half, the Ducks closed with a 12-0 run to close things out. Senior starters Mike Gerrity (scoreless) and Dwight Lewis (3 for 14 from the field) were terrible for the Trojans.  Southern Cal opened a 7-point favorite over OSU at Vegas and offshore sportsbooks.

5. Streak players will have trouble making up their mind in the matchup between West Coast Conference dregs San Diego and Pepperdine tonight.  If you take away their previous win and cover in this “rivalry”, San Diego is on an 0-10-1 run against the spread.  Meanwhile, the Waves are 0-8 to the number recently.

Good luck this weekend, and be careful. 

Here are a handful of items of interest to those interested in betting the college and NBA basketball card on Thursday night. 

1. If you’re looking for UCLA to bounce back from their embarrassing 97-68 blowout loss at Washington last weekend, you’ll want to be on top of the Bruins’ injury situation for their game against Oregon State tonight.  The frontcourt is thin for Ben Howland’s troops as Reeves Nelson (11 points, 5.8 rebounds per game) is out for the weekend after eye surgery and Brendan Lane’s status is up in the air after he injured his ankle in practice this week.  Lane only averages 2.2 points per game, but had a season high 11 in the loss up in Seattle.  In Nelson’s absence his status is more important than it would be otherwise.  The Bruins are favored by 5 on their home floor tonight.

2. Another Pac Ten frontcourt with injury issues is Cal’s.  The Golden Bears have backup center Max Zhang out with a collapsed lung, Markhuri Sanders-Frison playing through some back issues and Omondi Amoke suffering with some shoulder issues.  First-place Cal is the favorite to pull down their first regular season conference title since 1960, but have a tough weekend ahead with Arizona tonight and Arizona State on Saturday.

3. Arizona State, a team benefitting from contributions throughout a deep roster,  heads to Stanford tonight.  The Sun Devils are a 2.5-point favorite at Vegas and online sportsbooks.  Stanford is 5-1 straight up against conference foes at home despite having only 5 scholarship players available for several of those games.

4. Wisconsin has played 6 of their last 9 games at home, but return to the conference road tonight with a trip to Bloomington, Indiana to face the Hoosiers.   Their status as 11-point favorites at Vegas and online sportsbooks seems reasonable considering Indiana has lost 8 in a row, and in failing to cover their last 5 has lost each of those games by 14 points or more.   Those close to the program insist the Hoosiers are getting better, but this already thin club is still trying to recover from not only the Kelvin Sampson era but key injury losses earlier this season.

5. Thursday’s NBA card appears to be headlined by the Cavaliers/Celtics clash, but that game loses some luster if Paul Pierce doesn’t play.  Doc Rivers suggests that it is “most likely” that Pierce doesn’t go tonight, as he is suffering from both the flu and a bad thumb.  The Celtics look like a team in decline and continue to disappoint bettors with a miserable 6-18 pointspread mark on their home court.