Everyone loves tourney upsets. But as tempting as it is to pick dark horses to go deep into the NCAA tournament, the top seeds dominate. Going back to 1990, 14 of the last 17 NCAA tournament champions have been either a 1 seed (11 times) or a 2 seed (3 times). And the other winners weren’t exactly impossible to sniff out, as there have been a pair of 3 seeds (Florida in 2006, Syracuse in 2003) and a #4 seed (Arizona in 1997).

Incidentally, an important lesson for lower seeds in the Final Four is to invite me to the games, as the winners of the only two Final Fours I’ve been to since I was in college were the above mentioned Arizona in ‘97 and Syracuse in ‘03.

In the past 17 years, 66% (45 of 68) of Final Four teams have been either a #1 seed (29) or a #2 seed (16). To put it another way, #1 seeds have made the Final Four 42.6% of the time and #2 seeds have made the Final Four 22% of the time.

Being toughened by a major conference schedule is also critical. Since UNLV’s consecutive appearances in the Finals in 1990 and 1991, 61 of 64 Final Four slots have gone to teams that are currently in one of the six BCS Conferences (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Big East, Pac 10, SEC). The exceptions were George Mason in 2006, Utah in 1998, and UMass in 1996. During that time, Louisville, Cincinnati, and Marquette all made one Final Four each before they joined the Big East.

When you’re choosing your brackets are betting your futures, remember that these top seeds dominate. But when it comes to your betting, remember that the pointspread can be a very effective equalizer.

Plenty more Tourney notes throughout the week. So come back and check us out.