Starting 5: How Strong Is Tourney Home Court Edge?
Let’s talk tournaments with 5 items of interest, all in college basketball.
1. Teams playing in their home state have a winning record against the pointspread in the NCAA tournament, but Villanova coach Jay Wright made an interesting point this week when he reminded reporters that in Philadelphia a couple of years ago the crowd was rooting for Monmouth to upset the hometown Wildcats. All the neutrals and out-of-towners were pulling for the upset. Home court advantage is likely greater in the second round, when losers go home and more tickets free up for local fans who hadn’t donated enough money to their team’s athletic program to have a shot at them the first time around.
2. The minor tournaments (NIT, CBI, College Insider) all got started last night, with all the home teams favored. For what it’s worth, those home favorites went 6-5-1 against the pointspread. Power conference teams went 1-4-1 to the pointspread. For our purposes, we’re calling the UAB vs. ND game a push, though +6.5 was available on UAB at a number of sportsbooks throughout the day while a couple of minutes before the 9PM EDT start -5.5 was available on Notre Dame.
3. The NCAA tourney tipped off (kinda) last night, with Morehead State routing Alabama State 58-43. MSU opened up a one-point favorite before being bet as high as -3. The past few years in the play-in game the surge of money has been on the wrong side, but bettors who moved that line last night were correct.
4. Virginia Commonwealth seems to be the bracket buster du jour, and VCU coach Anthony Grant will likely be making a lot more money somewhere else next season (maybe those Georgia players transferring should wait and see who their coach is before jumping ship). But if you’re picking VCU, make sure it isn’t because of the frequently cited reason that UCLA is ”traveling three time zones east”. UCLA’s conference tournament was in their home town, they haven’t played since last Saturday, and their game tips off at 9:50 EDT (6:50PM on Bruin body clocks). If they were fatigued, or had played more than twice in the past 12 days, or if it was a noon game the time zone could be an issue. If VCU wins it will because they play better than UCLA, not because of the time zone.
5. Rhode Islanders have little need for an online sportsbook, as research shows that 1 of 8 Providence residents live next door to a bookmaker. As a result of such intense pointspread interest in the Ocean State, I’ll be on ABC 6 News with New England sportscasting legend Ken Bell sharing some tournament thoughts this afternoon at 4:45PM. So in the unlikely event you’re reading this from Rhode Island, Massachusetts, or Eastern Connecticut, be sure to tune in.
Sign up for our daily pointspread selections on the NCAA tournament (as well as the other college tourneys) and you’ll get the rest of the NBA regular season for free. Call me at 1-770-649-1078 for rates and details, as well as answers to any questions you may have.
