Homestretch NBA Betting Notes
Kobe’s Slump Leads to Storm of Unders: Interesting how a single player can determine a team’s over/under results for a period of time. If a team’s center is out, some teams start playing more overs, as they don’t have a defensive force in the middle and might play smaller and faster offensively. An efficient point guard’s absence can obviously lead to more unders.
Less frequent is how a single slumping player can effect results. Kobe Bryant has been shooting miserably, keying a 1-9 under stretch for the Lakers. Before shooting 10-18 at Minnesota on Wednesday night, Bryant had shot better than 40% in a game exactly once in his previous 8 outings. Bryant hit only 63 of 167 shots for a miserable 37.7% from the field in that time period, leading to the surge of unders.
Pointspread Winners and Losers From Across the NBA Strata: As the season winds down, there are both good teams and poor teams that have made their backers money over the season. The 55-19 Magic and 61-14 Cavs meet tonight, and they have both made a mint for their backers. Discounting pushes, Orlando is an impressive 47-27 against the spread, while the Cavs are 44-31, very healthy for a team with the game’s most popular superstar.
Of the top-level teams, only Houston (36-38 to the number) and New Orleans (33-40) are below .500 to the spread, though the Lakers and Celtics are dancing around .500
A team doesn’t need to have a stout winning record to be a money maker. The Knicks, at 29-46, are 43-31 to the number while the 34-41 Bobcats are a stout 46-29 to the pointspread. But the pointspread is not making up for the ineptitude of a couple of bad teams. The 17-60 Wizards are 29-45 to the spread, while the 18-57 Clippers are also burning money, with a lousy 30-45 spread mark.
Suns Total Adjustments Not Enough: When Alvin Gentry was hired to put the pace back into the Suns, it was obvious that Phoenix would be playing much higher scoring games. As a result, the adjustments in totals are at a historic level. In their last 5 games, the Suns have played teams they also played in November. In their last outing against Houston, the total was 222, compared to 198.5 in November. The total against Sacramento was 236 this week, and 202.5 back in November. Utah has been played twice recently, with the totals 230 and 228.5, compared to 194.5 early in the campaign. Last week’s game against Portland had a total of 221 compared to 195 for a November joust with the Blazers.
So the totals of the last 5 Suns games have totals that are higher than games against the same teams in November by a total of 152.5, or 30.5 points higher per game. Alas, the oddsmakers’ adjustments have not been enough, the Suns are 4-1 to the over in those contests, taking them to 16-8 to the over since the hiring of Gentry.
