7 for 26 is an ugly stat line for the Tennessee. That’s what Tennessee has shot from behind the arc in both of their losses in conference play. And while neither last night’s vanquishing by Vandy or the January 22nd loss to Kentucky were true stunners, the .269 shooting in each of those losses illustrates how many college basketball upsets are keyed by poor three-point shooting.

Let’s look at the losses by some elite teams this month and see how they shot from outside the arc.

In UCLA’s 71-61 loss to Washington, the Bruins shot 1-16 on 3-point field goals. Kansas shot poorly from outside in losses at Texas (4-17) and Oklahoma State (2-11). Duke’s loss to Wake Forest saw them go 2-17 from outside the arc.

And it is little different across the rest of college basketball. Outside of the Kansas loss to Oklahoma State, the only other double digit favorite to lose this past weekend was Duquesne, who shot 4-20 from 3-point land in their loss to LaSalle.

There is definitely a randomness to three-point shooting. Sure, some teams just can’t shoot, and some defend the arc with aplomb. But in so many instances, we’re going to see teams revert back to their true quality in the game or two following an upset caused by poor 3-point shooting. And the same would be true when an upsetter shoots lights out, raining in the threes.

As a general rule, when 3-point shooting causes an upset, don’t be too quick to upgrade the winner and be careful about downgrading the loser.