Basketball is a game of matchups, and that adage proves most true when a slow-paced team battles a team that prefers to play at a quicker tempo.  There are a couple of interesting Thursday games where the tempo will likely decide the victor, or at least decide the pointspread cover.

Let’s take a look.

Purdue vs. Baylor:  WIth this over/under line right around 140.5, Purdue hasn’t played a game with the total this high since December 8th, while 13 of Baylors last 14 games have had a total higher than this.  Purdue games average 104 field goal attempts, while Baylor games average 122 field goal attempts.  Both teams average game is a 7-point win, Purdue averages a 68.7-61.2 result, while Baylor averages a 81.4-74.4 win.  Despite allowing 13 points more per game, Baylor actaully holds opponents to a lower field goal percentage (42.8% to 43.3%).  Obviously Baylor wants to play fast, Purdue is more comfortable playing a bit slower, and the result will likely be determined by who plays the game at their comfort level.

George Mason vs. Notre Dame: The recent history of the over/under lines of these two teams tell us a lot about them.  6 of George Mason’s last 7 games have had lines below 130, while Notre Dame’s last 14 have had over/under totals of 141.5 or more despite playing in the low-scoring Big East.  George Mason allows 7 ponts fewer than Notre Dame despite having a higher defensive FG% allowed than the Irish.  Clearly this is another case of one team wanting to slow it down and the other team wanting to run.

So what do we do with this information? If these teams fight to play at thier comfort level, do the parlays of Purdue/under, Baylor/over, George Mason/under, and Notre Dame/over make sense?  You could certainly make a case for them.  But while logical, such parlays seem to work out less often than they should.  What you may want to do is to keep the preferred styles in mind when you analyze the results of these games.  Be more impressed with the victor if they are able to take control at a pace they’re uncomfortable with, and be more willing to go against them on Saturday if they win with the pace in their favor.

Good luck on Thursday.