Here are 5 items of interest to basketball bettors heading into the weekend.

1. Louisville coach Rick Pitino hasn’t had the best year.  And his basketball team has done little to buoy his spirits.  Pitino was highly critical of his team’s defense this week, saying “The effort is there.  The guys are willing to pay the price.  We’re just a weak defensive team.”  Catching three hoops at Vegas and online sportsbooks, the Cardinals head to Morgantown on Saturday, but may enjoy a bit of a matchup edge, as WVU’s strength is not at the point guard position.

2. The bottom half of the SEC West is weak, weak, weak.  LSU, Arkansas, and Auburn not only are all ranked 120th or lower in the country by the major power ratings, but have been pointspread disasters as well, with a combined 15-27 mark against the spread.

3. The equivalent teams in the Big Ten are Penn State, Iowa, and Indiana, none of whom crack the Top 100 in any power ratings and combining for 23-33 against the pointspread.

4. Kentucky was going to lose sooner, or later, but apparently not all of their fans were aware of that. The Get-A-Lifers among Kentucky’s loyal following have taken to using social networking sites to harshly criticize the Big Blue players directly. Patrick Patterson, among others, is not amused.   Does UK bounce back from their disapointing loss and take care of Vanderbilt as a sizable favorite?   Or does their disappointment show?   Off their big win in Knoxville, Vandy could be in letdown mode themselves, as road dogs off of a upset road win is a tough subset for bettors to make profitable.

5. The other side of that Kentucky upset, South Carolina, takes on an improving Georgia five on Saturday.   Their focus will be interesting to see and a letdown is possible, as the scene doesn’t get any wilder following an upset than it was in Columbia on Tuesday night.  Devan Downey’s coming out party wasn’t a great game for him until a few late clutch hoops were made.  In fact, the 30 points he scored on 9 for 29 shooting saw his scoring average in SEC games go down.

Good luck this weekend.  And be careful.

Proposition wagering on the Super Bowl grows in popularity every year, but props are being released extra slowly this year. While some Vegas casinos have finally started releasing them, offshore and online sportsbooks have been a lot slower in getting things cranked up this year.   I had planned on releasing some props to my customers by now, but there just isn’t a lot out there as of yet.   When it comes to posting props, offshore sportsbooks are at least a couple of days behind compared to where they’ve been in past years.

The reason?   Here’s one theory. Offshore sportsbooks largely have a smarter clientele than they did a few years ago when more people were playing online.  The serious bettors are still around, while the casual, less-informed players have largely gone.   So the online sportsbooks want to let the value seekers in Vegas take their shots, and then when the lines get straightened out, the offshores will largely just copy the props they want to have out there.  

We’ll give you a “no-handicapping” prop strategy on Monday.  So keep your eyes open for that and have a great weekend.

1. German import Elias Harris has been magnificent for Gonzaga, averaging 16 points per game and nearly doubling the rebounding output of any other Bulldog with over 8 per.  After playing in a pro league in Germany, it is a surprise to the San Jose Mecury News’ Jon Wilner that Gonzaga managed to get him eligible.    Vegas and online sportsbooks have the Zags favored by 12 at Santa Clara tonight.

2. Mike Gerrity, a transfer at USC, received a lot of press when he got off to a hot start after becoming eligible.  But Gerrity is only 13 for 42 from the field in the last 7 games for the Trojans, as opponents now have film available to game plan against the Trojans.  While Gerrity’s scoring has suffered, he has contributed in other ways, particularly notching an impressive 17 assists to only 2 turnovers in his last 3 games.

3. Oregon State (hosting Gerrity and USC tonight, Trojans are favored by 3) played about as bad a game as you’ll find in a 59-35 loss at middling (at best) Stanford last week.  The Beavers had only 3 assists in the contest and turned the ball over 19 times.  Not the ratio that Craig Robinson (”President Obama’s brother-in-law”!!!!!!) is looking for.

4. Early bettors drove Purdue up from a 8-point favorite over Wisconsin to a 9.5-point choice at Vegas and online sportsbooks. UW is really starting to feel the effects of the loss of big man Jon Leuer to injury. After coming together to defeat Northwestern, the Badgers have failed to cover 3 in a row, though they won 2 of the 3 and failed to cover the spread by 4 points or less in each instance.  Wisconsin held serve at home on January 9th, but Leuer was healthy back then.

5. Another big line move tonight was Virginia Tech being bet down from a 4.5-point dog at Virginia to just +2.  The action at Nevada and online sportsbooks indicates that Hokie star guard Malcolm Delaney is likely significantly healthier after a gimpy 4 for 15 from the field in a 1-point win over Boston College over the weekend.  

All the best to you in Thursday night’s basketball.

Big weekend of college hoops upcoming.  Let’s tip it off with 5 items of interest for those who like to put their money where their opinion is. 

You’ve seen the amount of research we do in this space, which is for the purposes of providing winning pointspread selections to our late telephone service customers.   We’re 17-7 the past couple of weeks and will be working hard on this stuff through the end of the Final Four and NBA regular season.  Call 1-770-649-1078 for rates and details on our late phone service, which is a documented long-term winning proposition.  

Here’s your weekend Starting 5.

1. What do Kansas (17-1 on the season), Texas (17-1), Kentucky (18-0), UAB (16-2), and Michigan State (16-3) have in common?   None of them are any better than .500 against the pointspread heading into the weekend action.   Simply riding the best teams is far from a winning approach in college basketball.

2. What do Northeastern, Drake, Detroit, Oregon State, St. Bonaventure, Southern Miss, Arkansas State, and Arkansas State have in common?   They’re getting the money.  These teams of modest accomplishment are all 63% or better against the pointspread on the season.    This is not to say that these teams will continue to win to the spread, in fact it’s likely they won’t.  The lesson here is that there are plenty of different places you can go in an effort to beat the Vegas and online sportsbooks.  And it isn’t always with the high-profile, spotlight teams.

3. Marquette escapes the wintry gloom of Milwaukee and is rewarded with…..the wintry gloom of Syracuse as they travel to take on the Orangemen.  These clubs enter the game on completely different emotional arcs.  The Orangemen are pretty satisfied with a sweep of their rare three-game road trip. The Warriors Golden Eagles are being rightly condemned for their loss at Depaul.  A double digit favorite at Vegas and online sportsbooks, Marquette became the Big East team to lose a conference game to Depaul in nearly two years.   MU was off a 93-63 steamrolling of Providence in their previous game and clearly had their mind on this visit to the Carrier Dome.  Though SU is the much better team, a good effort by a suddenly-hungry Marquette team (4 conference losses by a total of 6 points) would be no surprise.

4. Off their first loss of the season, Texas visits Gampel Pavilion on Saturday to take on UConn. Surprised that Texas didn’t push for the game to be at the Hartford Civic Center, where UConn has less of a home court edge.   This will be the Huskies second game without coach Jim Calhoun.  After a sluggish start, UConn rolled St. John’s on Wednesday night, with the Johnnies being very compliant visitors.  St. John’s coach Norm Roberts muttered “didn’t guard” over and over again during the post-game press conference.  Texas will likely play a little defense and shoot better than the 2 for 17 that St. John’s converted from outside the arc.  George Blaney is a highly respected coach, but how will UConn react to Calhoun’s absence in the preparation and play of this game against a top-notch opponent?

5. Nobody has been more dominant in any conference than BYU.  It’ll be interesting to see how the Cougars fare against a talented group of San Diego State Aztecs.  SDSU beat Utah 60-58 in Salt Lake City this week but should have won by more.  The Aztecs shot only 5 for 11 from the line in the last two minutes, and 10-23 on their free throws for the game.  You couldn’t ask much more out of BYU thus far.  The Cougars schedule has been modest but wins over Arizona State and UTEP look more impressive now than they did then.  And BYU has been wiping out the weaker teams on their schedule. But this might be a tough spot for them, as home dogs off a dog win are a pretty good play and the Aztecs are an athletic team.  Definitely a Saturday game to keep an eye on.

Hope something here helped you out.  Good luck this weekend, and be careful.  

A few notes worth noting for those interested in betting on the AFC and NFC Championship games this weekend.

Jets at Colts:

• There was some Colts -7 early, especially laying -115 or so, but the line has been bet up to a flat 7.5.
• The big mover of the football weekend is the total in this game.  Opened at 41, which didn’t last long, now down to 39. 
• When the Colts famously benched their starters in Game 15 they were outgaining the Jets 296-154.
• The Jets are practically a reincarnation of the Super Bowl champion 2000 Ravens.  A ferocious, disruptive, turnover-creating defense, a solid running game, and a quarterback that they’re terrified of trusting.  
• Mark Sanchez, recently compared unfavorably with Jamarcus Russell, has averaged 5.6 yards per pass attempt or less in 3 of his past 4 games, and he has 14 TD passes and 21 interceptions on the season.
• While it’d be nice to have the perpetually injured Bob Sanders around, the remaining pieces of the Colts defense are pretty healthy.

Vikings at Saints:

• The Saints opened as a 3.5-point favorite, which was bet up to 4, and is now back down to 3.5 in most places.
• The total has been a pretty solid 52 in Vegas, but is heading upward in the desert, and has crept up to 53 at some offshore and online sportsbooks.
• The AFC Championship game is not the only game featuring Buddy Ryan’s influence. Both defensive coordinators, the Saints’ Gregg Williams and Minny’s Leslie Frazier, are Buddy Ryan disciples.
• The Vikings were the only NFC team to go undefeated at home, and their last 5 wins have been by 17 points or more.  The road has been a different story, with losses in 3 of the last 4 trips being losses, all by 6 or more.
• The Saints of the first dozen weeks of the season and last week were dominant.  If you can forgive the final month, and there would be reasons to do that, this team something special.
• As fantastic has Favre has been all year, you would think he would come up with a big game, wouldn’t you?  After all, this is what he came back for. 
• The Saints are a lot healthier than they’ve been for a while.  Vikings DT Kevin Williams hasn’t been practicing (knee), but will go on Sunday.

Hopefully, something here at least gave you some food for thought.  While there are only two games in football, we anticipate a lot of value in the basketball this weekend.   Call 770-649-1078 to take advantage of our hard work and experience.

Thursday night college hoops usually take place largely out west, so let’s take a look at WAC and PAC Ten hoops for Thursday night.

1. Did you know that WAC leader Louisiana Tech is 17-2, including 9-4 against the pointspread?  Of course, their schedule has been a piece of cake, with Pomeroy suggesting the 212th toughest slate in the land, and Sagarin rating it #222.  Vegas and online sportsbooks have the Bulldogs laying 6.5 points tonight at San Jose.  The Spartans are an improved team (5-2 pointspread run) off a heartbreaking loss at Hawaii last Saturday night.

2. Utah State travels to Fresno tonight and money has come in on the homestanding Bulldogs, dropping the line from USU -4 to -3 at most major Vegas and online sportsbooks.   Understand the move, as the Aggies have an enormous home court edge in Logan (including altitude) which results in them underperforming on the road.   USU is 10-1 at home but only 3-5 away from home.  They average 81 points per game at home but only 64.4 on the road.  Aggie coach Stew Morrill is just 2 wins away from 500 for his career.

3. Oregon State faces Stanford tonight, with the Cardinal bet up to -7 at Vegas and online sportsbooks.  These clubs actually faced each other 4 times last year, twice in the regular season, in the Pac Ten tourney, and in the CBI postseason tournament.  Beavers coach Craig Robinson is seen as a good fit for the Depaul job, as he’s a Chicago native and would enjoy enormous visibility in the Windy City, as he is first lady Michelle Obama’s brother. 

4. The 7-10 UCLA Bruins were victims of the biggest thumping by USC in the program’s history last weekend, and attempt to bounce back against Washington tonight as a 4-point underdog.  Even if you isolated how down the Bruins would be this year, it hasn’t been that profitable, as the Bruins are a not-awful 7-8 against the line.  The pointspread really can be the great equalizer sometimes.

5. UCLA’s decline is a highly visible example of the overall weakness in the Pac Ten.  The conference has lost a ton of talent to the draft, but the Wall Street Journal points out that West Coast recruits choosing to explore other parts of the country has contributed to the conference’s low ebb.  And when not only the entire sports media but also the WSJ is reporting on how bad you are, it isn’t exactly a good sign for a college conference, is it? 

Good luck in Thursday night’s basketball.  As always, be careful.

Here are some news and notes from a pointspread perspective for those who may have some wagering interest in Wednesday night’s college basketball card.

1. New Mexico got off to a fast start but have been a money-burning 2-6 against the pointspread in their last 8 games. They were fortunate to escape from Laramie with a 2-point non-covering win on Saturday night.   There’s probably a pretty good technical strategy that could be developed for fading the surprising media darling once conference play hits.  Lobos are favored by a dozen on a visit to a beat up, bad Air Force team tonight.

2. A lot of people had John Beilein’s Michigan team as a “go with” team before the season, but Vegas and online sportsbooks have the Wolverines listed as a substantial dog at Wisconsin tonight, despite Wisconsin’s loss of Jon Leuer to a broken wrist.  Michigan simply doesn’t play intelligent basketball.  Leading by anywhere from 4 to 6 points, the Wolverines allowed UConn to attempt 8 free throws in the last 44 seconds on Sunday.   Fouling the opposition late is no way to close out a win.  The Wolverine players, including talented guard Manny Harris, aren’t nearly as savvy as their coach.

3. West Virginia is the bottom team on the schedule, but their game against Marshall is actually being played at the neutral site of the Charleston Civic Center.  This is a much bigger game for Marshall (the team with the better offense) than it is for West Virginia (the better defense, by far).  The Thundering Herd had to be rooting for the Mountaineers to knock off Syracuse on Saturday, but WVU couldn’t overcome the Orangemen, and as a result will likely be more focused on this game.   Bob Huggins has historically been a productive coach to bet on when his team is off a loss.  Vegas and online sportsbooks have this game at 11 or so, which seems a point or so short, indicating that there’s been a little motivational credit given to Marshall in the marketplace.

4.  Wake Forest let some questionable officiating lead to a second half Blue Devil avalanche in a 90-70 loss at Duke on Sunday night.    Consecutive road affairs in Durham and Chapel Hill are hardly ideal scheduling, but the Deacons take on a discombobulated bunch of Tar Heels here.  UNC is banged up and playing poorly, seemingly a shell of the team that blew out Michigan State and lost a close one at Kentucky.  North Carolina has dropped 5 of 6 to the pointspread and has played only a single-half of impressive basketball during that stretch, a second half rout of Virginia Tech 11 days ago.  

5. This has nothing to do with Wednesday’s basketball card, but the redoubtable Dick Jerardi of the Philly Daily News, mentioned a few things that he would change about college basketball.  One was: “Dick Vitale will never again be allowed to give his all-Duke team, at least not while Wake Forest is playing Georgia Tech.”

And that’s change we can all believe in.   Good luck on Wednesday’s basketball card.

Here’s a Starting 5 of notes of interest to basketball bettors looking at the Tuesday night card.

1. Georgia Tech fans just can’t stop whining about Paul Hewitt, but the Yellow Jackets coach has outperformed marketplace expectations with a young talented team, as the Jackets 9-4 mark against the pointspread would attest.   But the past two weeks have seen the Jackets alternate spirited wins against North Carolina and Duke with listless losses against Georgia and Virginia, which is the kind of thing that frustrates fans.

2. Tonight’s Jackets opponent, Clemson, has been a pointpsread warrior themselves.  The Tigers are on a 7-2 pointspread run after failing to cover as a 5-point favorite in a 3-point win over NC State.  Clemson nearly blew an 18-point lead.   Tigers beat Jackets all three times they met last season, but Tech is much improved.

3. Anyone who watched Purdue annihilate a solid West Virginia team a couple of weeks ago would be amazed that the Boilermakers have managed to stumble into a three-game losing streak in Big Ten play.  Why outline Purdue’s problems here when Jeff Washburn, beat writer for the Lafayette Journal and Courier does such a fine job doing so?   Vegas and online sportsbooks have purdue listed as a 3-point favorite in Champaign against the Illini tonight.

4. Miami won 15 of their first 16 games, somehow losing to Boston College up in Chestnut Hill in early December.  The rematch is tonight in Coral Gables, with Miami installed as a 6.5-point favorite at Vegas and online sportsbooks.  Both of these teams are in a slide right now.   The 10-8 Eagles have been underperforming to the pointspread with a 5-9 mark, including 3 straight losses by 16 or more.   Will the Hurricanes bounce back from their consecutive 15+ point losses to Virginia Tech and Virginia or will BC wake up and hang around with a Miami team finally showing some weaknesses?

5. Want to see a couple of mid-majors that will have every opportunity to pull off a couple of upsets in March?   Then watch the best game of the Tuesday board between Northern Iowa and Wichita State.  Wichita State is an early 3-point favorite at Vegas and online sportsbooks.  Both of these teams are worth learning about, so check out the preview in the Wichita Eagle, while the Northern Iowa perspective is available in the Waterloo-Cedar Falls Courier.

Good luck on Tuesday night, and be careful.

One of the greatest publicity gambits you’ll see has struck again.  Irish bookmaking firm Paddy Power has paid off backers of Republican Scott Brown in the special election to replace the late Ted Kennedy in the US Senate.  

Unless you could project their press releases in advance, there is no way to profit from this, and even then Paddy Power doesn’t take bets from US citizens online.   I just admire the clever gimmick.   How much are Irish bettors putting on this election to start with?   Any limited exposure that the firm has as a result of Brown’s possible loss is more than made up for in the publicity that exposes them to folks who live in jurisdictions that have more enlightened laws on online gambling than we do here in the states. 

Paddy Power gimmicks haved a long history, as you can see in this 2003 article.

Good craic, Paddy Power.  Good craic, indeed!!

Not our most detailed “Starting 5″, as there’s a lot of work to do on Saturday’s massive card.   But there’s some stuff here that should be helpful.

1. I like playing against teams that are off of a big upset win in their next game, particularly if it is an early afternoon game.  Sometimes the players are still “drunk with victory” as the late Mike Lee used to say, which can manifest itself more early in the day.  So it was disappointing to see that Clemson (off a wipeout of North Carolina) and NC State (off an upset win at Florida State) are playing one another at noon in Saturday’s action.  I would have looked long and hard to go against either one of them.

2. There are few players more valuable to their team than Jarvis Vanardo is to Mississippi State.   His late blocked shots helped catapult the Bulldogs over Ole’ Miss last Saturday and this week he helped pull out an 82-80 win Thursday night with 10 blocked shots against an Arkansas team that chose to continue to challenge him down the stretch.  The original statistical compilation had him with only 9 blocked shots but an additional swat appeared out of thin air from the stat crew in Starkville, giving him a triple double.   Bolstered by Vanardo’s shot blocking, MSU allows opponents to shoot only 36%, including less than 34% from the 3-point arc, as Vanardo’s presence inside allows his teammates to patrol the three point arc on defense.  The Bulldogs failed to cover Thursday night, dropping them to 8-4 against the pointspread on the season.  Saturday sees them as a substantial favorite over an improving Georgia team.

3. Southern Illinois’ three straight NCAA appearances, including a pair of Sweet 16 berths, earned coach Chris Lowery a big contract extension, but SIU is underachieving again this season, and are in danger of missing the tourney for the third straight year.   They’re on a 4-game losing streak, are disappointing bettors at a 5-8 clip against the pointspread, and Lowery has been critical of his team’s immaturity.   If the Salukis don’t win on their trip to Evansville to take on a young band of Purple Aces, things could really start to fall apart for them.

4. Depending on line value, I was looking to play Cal over Washington on Saturday if things broke right on Thursday night.  Things did not break right, as both teams won, but Cal had to really extend themselves at Washington State, with every starter playing 30 minutes or more, while UW coasted in a home win over Stanford, playing 9 guys for 12 minutes or more.   Cal’s a little thin without sixth man and “glue guy” Jorge Guitierrez, who remains out with an ankle sprain.

5. Any burst of energy that you thought Depaul might have from their new coach went away when Mac Koshwal’s injury was announced shortly before the Blue Demons game against Providence on Thursday night.  Koshwal will miss 2-4 weeks, not a promising sign for the Blue Demons, who play at moderately resurgent (7-3-1 pointspread mark in their last 11 lined games) St. John’s on Sunday.  

If you’d like to put our research and analysis to work for you in your personal hoops wagering, call my office at 770-649-1078.  Ask for the “Starting 5″ discount.