Navy, a hard-trying underdog, seems to fit basic minor bowl strategy today, against a Missouri team that has becomed accustomed to more grandiose holiday plans than the Texas Bowl.  But there’s a surprising amount favoring Missouri today.

• Their win over Army was the only game that saw Navy outgain an opponent since October 24th.  They were outgained by Temple, Notre Dame, Delaware, and Hawaii during that stretch.
• Navy’s starting center was declared academically ineligible rather late in the game and his replacement has only been playing with the first team for a couple of days.
• Mizzou can throw the ball, and Navy gave up 452 yards passing to Notre Dame and 366 yards passing to Hawaii late in the season.   Navy’s secondary is more athletic than it used to be, but good passing attacks did some damage late in the year.
• Missouri’s Blaine Gabbert toughed out an ankle injury midseason but has 8 TD passes and 0 INT’s since his return to health.  
• Service academies always play well in Texas.  The state has a lot of kids who love football and are good, but just not athletic enough or big enough for the Big 12.  The academies scoop them up and then reward them with trips back to the Lone Star State.   But Missouri recruits Texas heavily and their Texans are thrilled to be playing in Houston as well.
• Missouri has held 11 of 12 opponents below 4.0 yards per rush and have one of the top run D’s in the land.  They haven’t faced an option attack, but their stout defensive line seems to be more equipped than most to handle their duties and the defensive ends and cornerbacks have had extra time to be schooled on stopping the option.
• These Navy seniors are 0-3 in bowl games and are motivated, but Mizzou seems surprisingly motivated as well and has practiced well.

I tend not to go against “basic minor bowl strategy” even in the face of matchup advantages.  And I understand a play on Navy today, though I’d much prefer a +7 or a +7.5 (solid 6.5 as I write this).  Will root for the Middies, as I always root for the academy kids.  But Navy’s not going to have my backing at the current line.

Nic Grigsby looks to be playing for Arizona in tonight’s Holiday Bowl despite his shoulder injury, but money has poured in on Nebraska.  At one point this game was at a pick.  Now the Huskers are as high as a 3-point pick. 

Something to consider whether looking to bet either side or total in the Holiday Bowl tonight is the massive success that Bo Pelini has had when his defense is in a bowl game.   After a decade in the NFL, Pelini entered college football as the defensive coordinator of Nebraska in 2003.  That season, Pelini’s Cornhuskers held Michigan State to 3 points.

In 2004 as Oklahoma’s co-coordinator, Pelini’s Sooners were destroyed by the scintillating USC Trojans 55-19.

From 2005-2007 Pelini-coordinated LSU defenses held their bowl opponents to 3, 14, and 24 points.  The 24 points were in LSU’s 38-24 championship win over Ohio State in which LSU had a 31-10 lead after the first drive of the second half and the Buckeyes earned some garbage time yards and points.

In 2008, Nebraska’s defense held Clemson’s high-powered offense to 210 yards in a 26-21 win over the Tigers.

Take away the explosion of points by a historically good USC team and Pelini defenses are very, very good in bowl games. 

Additionally, Nebraska’s defense has excelled in their biggest games this year.   Oklahoma and Nebraska combined for a single offensive TD against the Huskers.   At a Virginia Tech team that proved to have a decent offense, Nebraska held the Hokies to 190 yards and 9 first downs in the first 58 minutes of that game before a freakish long pass by Virginia Tech won the game. 

The Huskers figure to have a sound game plan and be ready to play tonight.   But you can’t always say the same about their offense.

On the NFL season, betting every underdog is ever so slightly profitable, even with the juice.  This is despite the fact that blindly betting road favorites in the NFL, is also ever so slightly profitable, even with the juice.    Favorites enjoyed a 10-6 mark on the week just past.   The weekend started with the Steelers outright loss at Cleveland.  With losses to the Browns, Raiders, and Chiefs, Pittsburgh has now lost outright as a double digit favorite 3 times in their last 4 games.  Throw in their loss to the Bengals the week before that and you have 4 outright losses in 5 weeks as a better than TD favoirte.  That’s gotta be historic, doesn’t it?

Monday night was a 7/11 game for the Cardinals, 7 turnovers and only 11 first downs.   The Niners got a nice win even though they passed for only 3.9 yards per attempt with a pair of interceptions themselves. Take away the Alex Smith kneeldowns, and the Niners rushed for over 5.8 yards per attempt, which is pretty impressive.  Back to the Cards turnovers, one was a fumble on the final play of the first half at midfield.  No harm done.  It seems as though there should be special categories for turnovers.  A first and goal interception in the opponent’s end zone is debilitating.  But on third and long an interception 45 yards down the field is likely a better net result than what you’d get on a punt on the next play.  I’m sure somebody’s doing a “situational turnover” number.  I just haven’t seen it yet.

Similarly, the Jets/Bucs game wasn’t all that different than the Monday nighter.  The Jets had scoring “drives” of 9, 22, 31, and 7 yards as the Bucs had 3 turnovers and a grand total of 6 first downs in the game in which they averaged 2.2 yards per play.  Not per rush, per play.  First downs don’t always tell the tale, as the Titans had only a 19-15 first down edge in their 47-7 whipping of the Rams.  The Titans had at least 5 plays of 30 yards or more from scrimmage in that game, and any team with the blazing speed and big play ability of Chris Johnson and Vince Young is not going to have a lot of choppy drives.   In fact, their first two TD’s were on a 4-play, 65-yard drive and a 2 play, 82-yard drive.   The Titans/Rams game was an interesting case of a team that started the season 0-6 being favored in a game by nearly 2 TD’s later in the season.   But that tends to happen when a team on a winning streak is facing a team quarterbacked by somebody named Keith Null.

All 12 scoring drives in the Giants/Eagles game were of 59 yards or more.  The Eagles gained “only 374 yards on Sunday night in scoring 45 points.   They were massively efficient, with their 7 non-scoring drives gaining only a total of 15 points.  That does include taking a knee to end both the half and the game, but is still meaningful.  Philly opponents average more possession time than the quick-strike Eagles do.  Yet Rick Gosselin points out that the 2006 Colts were the only team to ever win the Super Bowl without possessing the ball longer than their opponents.  Incredibly, it was as recently as the Sunday before Thanksgiving that the Giants had the league’s “#1 defense” as judged by yardage per game allowed.   Now they rank 15th in the more accurate yards per play allowed, and the New Yorkers have permitted 32.3 points per game over their last 8 contests.

Our newsletter, the Maximum Profit Football Weekly (aka “The Max”) is on a nice hot streak of 59-33 (over 64%) against the pointspread.  Our Bowl Max comes out this week with a full analysis of every bowl game. Every NFL playoff game will be covered as well.  This week’s NFL Max is waiting for you when you call 1-770-649-1078 to subscribe. 

The Packers hot streak is no big surprise.  They have been very impressive both offensively and defensively on the line of scrimmage, and have started to clean up some of their problems, like getting sacked, poor special teams, and being the most penalized team in the league.  Aaron Rodgers has now been sacked only 6 times in the last 4 games and the Pack committed only 4 penalties for a total of 30 yards in their win over the lifeless Bears on Sunday.

I’m told that the sports books in Vegas seem painfully slow lately.  It will be interesting to see what the Nevada Gaming Control Board numbers indicate for the football season.  Online and offshore sportsbooks are still doing better than most realize, though they certainly aren’t enjoying the kind of hypergrowth they once did.   No matter where you’re betting, go beat them this weekend. 

Doubt there’s much “rookie QB vs rookie QB” history in the NFL, but Josh Freeman’s Tampa Bay Bucs take on Mark Sanchez’s New York Jets this week.   So do you play the under due to conservative game plans given to these inexperienced signal callers?  Or will they make mistakes that provide “silver platter” scoring opportunities to their opponents?

San Diego bettors laying 13 or so had to be confident when the Chargers started the 4th quarter with a 2nd and 4 on the Cleveland 34 and a 27-7 lead.  The Chargers had nearly a 200 yard edge in total yardage at the time as well. But the Bolts relaxed with the game in hand and Brady Quinn looked like a superstar to earn the Browns the cover.  Seems to be the kind of thing that happens with some frequency with big road favorites in the NFL.  

Tom Brady’s getting some heat in the media for his uneven performances, but even with a pair of interceptions, when you throw for 352 yards on only 29 passes, it’s not all on you.   The Patriots generated little pass rush in Miami on Sunday and Chad Henne (Chad Henne!) kept attacking the same spots on the field.  It was time to retool New England’s aging defense and they’ve got some guys learning on the job right now.   

Is being inside opponent’s territory nine times yet not scoring a TD an NFL record?  If so, the Rams made a little history in their loss at the Bears. The Rams play hard, their special teams and defense did some good things Sunday, but oooooh, that offense.  St. Louis is inept on the offensive line, beat up at the receiver position, have Kyle Boller as quarterback, and Steven Jackson has lost a step at running back.   Boller had 113 yards on 32 attempts, for 3.5 yards per pass attempt with an interception.  Down 8 inside of 4 minutes, the Rams had the ball on their own 45 and threatened to enter Bears territory for the 10th time all game, but Boller threw his interception on the first play of that drive, effectively ending the ballgame.  St. Louis dominated the punting game, young Welker-esque Texas Tech product Danny Amendola averaged 12 yards per punt return while punter Donnie Jones averaged 45.3 yards per punt and pinned the Bears inside their 20 with 6 of his 7 punts.   That punting helped lead to a rare “no TD but pointspread cover” for an NFL team.

Delaware is introducing some new parlay card options, including a fresh one each Monday night that allows bettors to parlay Monday night football with the next week’s games.  With the requirement of three-games or more, bettors had no reason to check out Monday night football in the First State’s racinos that host the sports betting.  The reason for mentioning the new offerings centers around something called the “Delaware Favorites” card, which keys on the Eagles, Ravens, and Redskins and let’s bettors pick from games over the next three weeks.   Seems like there might be some value there if you like a team to improve or tank, as I’m unaware of other vehicles that allow you to parlay the same teams in mulitple weeks like this.

Have a feeling that NFL bettors who focus on the desperate teams aren’t having productive years.  The 49ers, Falcons, Steelers and Bengals all failed to the spread in those roles Sunday.  The Texans have now dropped three straight in “desperate” situations, and owner Bob McNair hasn’t had the expression of a guy happy with his head coach in recent weeks.  With all the mediocrity in the wild card chase, these situations continue to come up week after week.  

Heading into the Monday Night game in Green Bay, underdogs had enjoyed a 10-5 week against the pointspread in the NFL.   But that’s a result of some games being judged as more-or-less even going to the small dog, as 1-point favorites Houston, San Francisco, and Dallas all failed.  So it lacked the feel of a big underdog week.  

Buffalo is far from the most affluent market in the NFL, so the decision to play a home game each year in Toronto is understandable.  But it seems odd that the Bills would give up home games against divisional rivals like the Jets and (last year) the Dolphins.  It also seems odd that they would give up the advantage of a Thursday night home game, which is a simply awful scheduling situation for the visitor.  The Jets Thursday night win featured a pretty unique statistical oddity of both teams averaging more per run attempt than they did per pass attempt.  The Jets went for 5.8 yards per rush and 4.8 yards per pass.  The Bills ran for 5.1 yards per rush attempt but an anemic 3.1 yards per pass attempt.

Even in big road years, which this has become in the NFL, favorites usually do pretty well in the concluding quarter of the season against the pointspread.   Not that you should be playing every home team, but just something to keep in mind.  

NFL parlay betting has been a qualified success in Delaware, with the state taking in over $800,000 thus far, which is in excess of the $500,000 projected.   But the casino operator who built a large sportsbook based on the expectation of lucrative single game betting is not recouping the hefty investment made.  The NFL team up the road, the Philadelphia Eagles, takes on the Atlanta Falcons Sunday.  We’ve written a lot about how a team’s mental state means a lot down the stretch in the NFL, but injuries matter, as well.  Both of these teams are beat up, with the Falcons missing QB Matt Ryan.  Amazingly, Atlanta’s only starter last season to miss any time with injury was then-rookie offensive tackle Sam Baker.   This season the team has suffered 11 major injuries.  If you’re looking for a difference between this season and last, there it is for you.   And with the lengthy injury lists all over the league, that proposed 18-game schedule looks pretty daunting this time of year, doesn’t it?

Our newsletter, the Max, is 50-30 against the spread over the last several weeks.  The rest of the season, including every bowl game and NFL playoff contest fully analyzed, is only $79.   Call 770-649-1078 to subscribe.

The only conference championship game that is a rematch of a regular season affair is Georgia Tech vs. Clemson.  Back on a Thursday night in September, Tech burst out to a 24-0 lead, gave it all up for Clemson to go up 27-24, and then came back with a pair of field goals for the 30-27 win.   Tech was a 5-point home favorite that night and has gone from a 1-point favorite to a 1-point dog in this one.  They’re a bit banged up, but Paul Johnson, is, of course, Paul Johnson.

It speaks volumes about the ACC that their two divisional championship teams were each beaten decisively by middling SEC teams last Saturday.  Another metric is the fan interest, or lack thereof, in the ACC Championship game.   Online ticket brokers can get you into Raymond James Stadium for $19 vs. a “get in” price of $362 for the SEC’s showdown in Atlanta.

Texas is using their defensive lapses in College Station as a springboard into Saturday’s Big 12 Championship Game.  Texas A&M’s 39 point, 539 yard explosion against Texas is obviously worrisome to Longhorn partisans.  But prior to that game the Longhorns had allowed more than 20 points, and over 310 yards in a game just once each.  Chalk it up to Aggie lightning in a bottle? 

If you’re interested in how those stats compare with the potential SEC opponents of the Longhorns, let’s take a look. High opponent production allowed by Florida was 20 points and 357 yards by Arkansas.   Alabama’s high allowances have been 24 points by Virginia Tech and 341 yards by Tennessee. 

Nick Saban is 13-1 straight up in the SEC against an opponent he lost to the year before. Of course, with Urban Meyer’s 95-17 career coaching record, and Saban’s 79-24 record at LSU and Alabama, it’s not like these guys have lost too many games of any type.    Florida may facing some distractions with defensive coordinator Charlie Strong having the Louisville job in the bag and superstar Carlos Dunbar being suspended for his drunken driving arrest.  In addition to Strong having the Louisville job wrapped up, Dennis Franchione (ex New Mexico, TCU, Alabama) appears to be in very good shape for the UNLV job.   Can you say “retread”?

Can’t blame the Trojans for their TD bomb in the games closing seconds, as the Bruins brought it on themselves by calling timeouts, but USC sure was doing a lot of woofing about their 28-7 win over UCLA considering that the Trojans had the same amount of first downs and 14 more total yards than the Bruins.   A 4-1 turnover differential told the tale in that one. If you knew that there would be a 485-289 yardage edge for Toledo, how much would you have bet on them at +7.5 against Bowling Green?  Good thing you didn’t know, as the final score was Bowling Green 38-24 due to a 5-1 edge in turnovers. (That is only mentioned due to Bowling Green being 7-5 and bowl eligible.)

Get ready for a lot of justifiable howling from ACC teams who fall down the bowl ladder as a result of the Gator Bowl choosing mediocre Florida State to celebrate Bobby Bowden.  The folks in Jacksonville figure this will attract attention and, as always, the bowls are all about filling hotel rooms and restaurants in the host city.  This is the second straight year that the once-proud Gator Bowl will have a 6-6 team for reasons of commerce, as Clemson brought a lot of people to Jacksonville to celebrate New Year’s last season.

Good luck as we (unbelievably) wrap up the college regular season.